The Campground [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Analysis of Yaseikhaan.

I will view each person from both perspectives, and see which makes more sense to me. That should hopefully eliminate some confirmation bias, and force me to be as objective as I can be.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Yaseikhaan does not vote day one.

No posts during Night one.

Vote: B_Ray

Long live the old history channel!

At the time, Zack was in the lead, and others had at least two votes on them.

I've noticed that Khaan has employed a "wagon everyone" strategy before as townie. See: Mafia IX. For him to sit back and lob quiet votes and non-leading candidates is interesting. What's more, I believe it was a concerted strategy from him because he does that for several rounds. That said, Khaan will employ a low-key strategy at times as town.

B_ray was innocent.

Day 2:

Zack: 5 (Csargo, Reenk, B_Ray, God Emperor, TheLastDays)
Reenk Roink: 2 (Zack, Diamondeye)
Askthepizzaguy: 1 (Chaotix)
Visorslash: 1 (Visorslash)
Andres: 1 (Scienter)
Chaotix: 1 (ATPG)
Scienter: 1 (Andres)
B_Ray: 1 (khaan)
TheLastDays: 1 (JHT)

Not voting: 1 (robbiecon)


No posts at all during the night phase.

Vote: Diamondeye

False scum accusation- if you really think he is, vote for him, instead of trying to influence others to do your dirty work.

This vote seems to have more teeth than Khaan's previous vote. It's aggressive, and casts doubt on Diamondeye's motivations.

Diamondeye was executed, and therefore, is a possible candidate for a scumbag.

The tally at this point is very low, only 1 or two votes per candidate.

ATPG: Chaotix
Chaotix: ATPG, GE
Scienter: TLD
B_Ray: DE
Csargo: Visor
Visor: Andres
DE: Reenk, Yaseikhaan

Everyone should vote for Diamondeye. The Heavens have spoken through their prophet, Reenk, and righteously pointed out Diamondeye's guilt.

Also, scummy post was scummy.

Khaan further encourages Diamondeye's death.

Chaotix: ATPG, GE
Scienter: TLD
B_Ray: DE
Csargo: Visor
GE: Johnhughthom
Visor: Andres
DE: Reenk, Yaseikhaan
Zack: Chaotix

God Emperor got a vote, but the tally seems comfortable enough not to provoke any reaction from Khaan even if GE were scum. Scienter as Khaan's partner wouldn't make sense either. I don't really buy Zack as scum.

I can't really cast any of this as unusual behavior, or even scum-motivated. DE had been voting for B_Ray, another townie.

Vote: Scienter

I'm with andres' stomach on this one.

Chaotix: Pizza, GE
Pizza: Chaotix
GE: TLD

Tally before the extension. I am of the belief that a scum would have voted here.

Of these people, TheLastDays and God Emperor are the only candidates for scum, other than myself.

I am seriously considering TheLastDays and God Emperor as our two highest likelihood of scum candidates.

Khaan missing a vote because he is busy is in fact plausible either way. He's missed days before in games where he's scum.


Chaotix: Pizza, GE, Visorslash, Scienter
Pizza: Chaotix, B_Ray
GE: TLD, Csargo, JHT
Scienter: Andres, Yaseikhaan

Many votes later, Khaan has a choice to jump on the wagon on innocent Chaotix, innocent Pizza, or likely guilty God Emperor. He goes with the quiet Scienter, backing up Andres vote.

Khaan still can switch to Pizza or Chaotix if necessary, should GE be his scum partner. Possible distancing motivation here.

Will follow this theory.

However, anyone, myself included, can and does follow Andres' gut instincts from time to time. I felt Andres could have been guilty, but I still followed up on Scienter just in case he was not.

The round ends and the tie is broken by several townies, lynching God Emperor with finality, possibly before Khaan can react.


B_Ray is slain, one of the people who voted for God Emperor.

Two tests tomorrow, sweetie, and my profs seem to think that 30 hours a day is a perfectly reasonable amount of time to devote to school in what's turning out to be a lovely Iowa May. I'll give you that's not really a valid excuse for me acting like.. uh.. me, I guess, but anywhos....

I recall a bit ago you had a really spot on scum catch, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Vote: Andres

After God Emperor dies, and Scienter is still alive, Khaan switches gears and goes for Andres.

This seems inconsistent to me. Says me, Captain Inconsistency. I'm still curious as to why Khaan doesn't follow up on Andres' gut?

Khaan also waits until late in the round to say much.

Grar... I told you, I've been getting my hat handed to me by my summer courses. Vote:Askthepizzaguy Because you being alive now means you'll never die, and I don't want to take that risk.

Excuses, Excuses.

Voting for me based on the above 'reasoning' is fail. Obviously he does want to take that risk, and has. In fact, he's still taking that risk.

Khaan waits until late in the round to say anything. At this point, Khaan could not save Scienter except by tying the vote.

Then again, Khaan doesn't really seem the type to go out of his way to save his partner anyway, which renders him hard to analyze.

Noap. You get to keep living in this awful, terrible existence. That's your punishment.

I believe you. I'm excellent lynchbait usually.

Vote: TheLastDays

For basically the whole last day's worth of posts. They spelled out s-c-u-m.

Vague.

Not waiting all round to cast his vote, which seems to imply he was doing it on purpose before.

Oh, naw, we gonna have a war, sir. Green power mandates we finish this delicious strawberry malt off.

That said, I'm just conflicted. I've got the epic of gilgamesh and a billion pages of accounting work and a playoff basketball game demanding attention. I just dunno I can get a solid difference between you and JHT. Since we're both fairly incompetent, you wanna strike a deal and vote for the only competent analyzer left?

Really don't know what to say to this. Something about it feels like it's being written like fake dialogue for a character that Khaan is playing.

Khaan loves his WIFOM. He's certainly capable of doing everything he's just done as mafia, regardless of JHT or my suspicion on him. What the scums have been doing is eliminating everyone who went after God Emperor, it seems.

After reading the whole thread again, I tend to agree with Andres that God Emperor maybe was guilty. I don't feel that from Scienter.

TheLastDays is also a top scum choice, somewhat implying that Johnhughthom is his partner. Khaan would bus his own partner though.

Dead scums are likely God Emperor or TLD.

Dunno what my verdict on Khaan is. There is an overall feeling of disingenuous behavior from him, given his odd voting record. Going from voting with Andres to voting for Andres while Andres' suspect is still alive doesn't feel right. Khaan doesn't follow up on me, which is odd. Many of his votes seem designed to not even cause a lynch to happen. Much of the time, he lurks through entire rounds, yet he picked up on my random FoS in his general direction for doing so and responded to it.

He is rarely aggressive, in fact only makes a couple of aggressive plays all game, and otherwise becomes a background figure, leaving his vote in places it doesn't make any difference.

Khaan as townie has been rather bloodthirsty before, and nowhere near this cautious.

I'll take a closer look at Johnhughthom and then sit on it for a while and let it stew.

I am leaning guilty, with a side of God Emperor. But we shall see.

Now, let's check out John.


Analysis of Johnhughthom.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Vote:Zack

Amateur. You forgot your "If I was mafia I would..." line.

I'd wager Zack was innocent. Just how he is.

Vote: The LastDays

Explain yourself sir.

TheLastDays is still a possible/likely scumbag.

Because you're Ballsy and Ruthless enough to do so as scum?

Somebody who wins the game when they get lynched. I hate them. I hate them. They are horrible.

Rather chatty for day one.

Vote: God Emperor

Such a lazy vote.

No chatting during the night phase.

Another vote on someone who was lynched. Interesting.

Both Khaan and John end up voting for almost everyone who got lynched. There's not much difference between them so far, except Khaan has also voted for known innocents.

You could probably say that about a few players.

Vote: Chaotix

John's first vote for a known innocent is during the DE/Chaotix tiebeaker. In fact, Diamondeye is one of the few suspected scums that John never voted for.

Not sure what that means.

You want somebody to explain your own vote to you? My goodness, you really have managed to fool everybody into thinking you know what you're doing in this mafia lark.

Good stuff, thought I'd missed the phase. I'll read up when I've more time tomorrow and cast a vote then.

What's the big deal if you miss a phase?

Im going to Vote: God Emperor

No follow-up on Chaotix, back to God Emperor, late to the wagon.

What exactly is the case on Scienter? She doesn't seem any different from how she normally plays to me.

The only time I can recall seeing you ask for a case on someone is when the person voted was your scum partner, in the Animus game.

Very odd behavior.

You'll need to unvote first Visorslash, this is just an extension, not a revote like last time.

John is watching the outcome of the three way tie, but not contributing to any discussion about it.

And how many times has it allowed the scum to slip by unnoticed?

I don't understand the purpose or point of this question. Just seems randomly chatty.

Vote: Andres

I'm pretty sure the key to our scum is somewhere in that three way tie. Andres vote switch was the action that stuck out most to me.

Seems contrived. Such a vague place to start from gives you a lot of ammunition to accuse basically anyone in that whole mess.

Interesting.

Response to Renata's post

I still don't see the case on Scienter. I was going to put some sort of scum buddy related humour here, but it has been ruined by Visorslash and Pizza for this game. Overdone guys, not cool, not cool at all.

This feels fakey.

Vote: khaan

I'd like to hear more from the horsey man. And less from Pizza and Visorslash.

Okay, I'm starting to see a pattern. John is placing his vote on people, based on other people's cases. It's as if he's allowing the momentum of others to determine his actions. He's consistently placing his vote on candidates that other people also wish to vote for, suggesting an overall strategy rather than honest scum hunting.

Khaan, on the other hand, votes for whomever, whether they're likely to be lynched or not. This is one of the few things that tells them apart.

I'm going to stick with Vote: khaan

John seems very focused on eliminating people with his vote. Khaan is more all over the place.

Unvote, Vote: TLD

I wasn't going to bother, but this will stop any clever plans involving last minute vote switches.

This sorta feels forced or nervous

I really should watch that some day.

Hmmm.

I'm not getting a leadership vibe from John, and I am getting a pattern where the murders very nicely compliment his lynches. He's come under no real pressure all game long from anyone, including myself.

You can see why I have difficulty drawing conclusions from this sort of behavior.

Okay. A thorough analysis of these posts leads me to the following conclusion:



You guys are both geniuses at leaving very few tells.

John in particular, I have a hard time saying anything about any given individual post which either clears or condemns him.

Khaan is ambiguous in general, but certain posts lean one way or the other. But John has no posts I can say for certain make me certain about him. The best I can even say is that certain things sound forced, fake, or not genuine. But even then, usually only vaguely. I can't specify why, I can only point to my gut. Renata's "tell" on John, being pressuring his partners, does not apply here, because almost everyone John has voted for has been the lynch target of certain days. One of the few lynchees he didn't vote for was Diamondeye, and he issued a rare vote for a now-known townie instead of lynching Diamondeye.

Khaan-
Early game, ends up leaving his vote on candidates who do not get lynched.
Early game, ends up voting late in the round.
Does not unvote, ever.
Bounces around. Accuses Andres' suspect, turns around and accuses Andres, while the previous suspect still lives.
Ideas of sparing his partner never seem to match Khaan's behavior.
Is fine with leaving threats to himself alive, has come under pressure.
Is alternately aggressive and passive, but mostly passive and lurky.
Doesn't seem to have either bussed or spared his partner, if he's guilty.
I could characterize Khaan as being less wagon-y than usual.
Seems to be reacting to events round-by-round.
Khaan has actively accused me and voted for me.

John-
Much more active and chatty than Khaan.
More consistent, chasing down certain candidates until they die, moving on to the next.
Odd comments regarding Scienter.
Seems to be watching the thread much more closely than Khaan.
Odd reasoning on Andres.
Seems to be following others' cases, not making his own.
Only unvotes once, to join TLD's wagon.
Possibly has bussed his partner, which is typical of him as mafia.
I could characterize John as being more chatty than usual, which is typical of him as mafia.
Seems to be employing a more long-term strategy than Khaan.
John has never once voted for me, which is unusual for him.

Both-
Not very chatty at night.
Have voted for almost everyone who got lynched, the grand majority of them were and are still suspected mafia.
Have voted for very few known innocents.



Khaan's behavior can be characterized as scummy because of the way he tends to wait for the outcome of the round to be decided before placing his vote, in the early two-thirds of the game. This can be coincidental, and it can also be thought of as a null-tell because he is constantly lurky no matter what his role is. His vote is also a bit all over the place, which contradicts being cautious... At times he seems too passive, and then other times he's aggressive. He's inconsistent. Difficult to suggest there's a master strategy at work, or at least one that is recognizable other than randomness.

John's behavior can be characterized as chatty, and he tends to make comments I find odd. His voting pattern seems eager to destroy certain people in particular, but he also doesn't lead the charge against anyone. Odds are good if he's mafia he has bussed his partner, which he adores. I feel he's paying close attention to this game, unusually so, almost as if he is babysitting the thread. I have never pressured him except for a brief moment when I wanted him to vote for Chaotix, but I noticed I could just vote for Chaotix myself and tie it up. The fact that he's never once accused me feels deliberate.

Of the two, John actually feels like he's in control of the game, and acting in deliberate fashion to avoid all the major mafia traps. Khaan's scummy behavior is more typical of him, and that means I cannot read him as being different than usual, other than his departure from pure wagoning. But that's not such a huge variation that I can draw conclusions from.

I feel John is acting different from usual in a way I can draw a general conclusion from, which is that he cares a lot about what's happening, and is more cutthroat than usual.


There's a dark part of my heart that wants to kill Khaan just because he's got the enormous grapefruits to play this way as scum. I feel his performance is game-winning regardless of alignment. He's been scum so many times that I would be very hard pressed to catch him for acting off. He would never behave nervously, and there is no sign of partner interaction. He's careful enough to leave no tells at all, and I looked for them.

Khaan feels bold and reckless. John feels simultaneously cautious and cutthroat, and almost nervous, for him.

I gotta be me. Analysis Pizza says John is the real culprit. If Khaan is mafia, he's beaten me very, very soundly, and with diamond cojones, and I like that.