No, not Jon, Stannis. I have my doubts over the letter too. It certainly is believable but if we look at the events surrounding the situation in the North it seems a push for it to be plausible, unless GRRM has something planned out.
Firstly, The Braavosi Banker. Now Stannis has the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos, a wealthy institution which is part of the most powerful free city as stated, what sense would it make to kill him off? Why introduce something that could rapidly turn Stannis' fortunes around only to kill him off screen?
Secondly, Theon and "Arya" are now at his camp. The northern banners bar two are bound to the Boltons because they have the Stark heir captive. What reason do they have to fight for Roose and Ramsey now? I'm pretty certain the Freys don't even have the northern hostages anymore as Jamie commanded them to be released by decree of the king.
Thirdly, the letter itself. Ramsey asks for his bride back and his "reek". He assumes they are at the wall but given the time span how could they possibly be their? It took Stannis and his host weeks to march through the storm, lets hypothesis Stannis did lose and "Arya", Theon and Asha fled before they were recaptured. Why would they even go to the wall? There are numerous more safe places to go. Quite frankly Jon seems stupid for taking the bait. Even if it real, why march? Ramsay's host wouldn't by logic wouldn't even march on the wall. They have no one they can trust to guard Winterfell on their behalf.
Fourth, the wording of the letter. The repeated reiteration of bastard. The language is sharp and provocative, not controlled like you would expect from a man who claims to be in control of so much. Also why is Roose not writing the letter, why is the Warden of the North letting his bastard send out threats? Is Roose even still alive?
Fifth, Manderley. Roose sends him, his troops and then the Freys out to find and fight Stannis. Why would he not just turn on the Freys? He's already eaten some in a pie and we know where his loyalties lie. I cant see him going out to butcher Stannis, at this point the North's best hope of reinstating the Starks.
Finally, Stannis is a renowned military commander, Established as one of the best in Westeros. Even with his rag tag army I find it hard to see him losing. He knows his stuff. Also the Karstark betrayal which I forgot to mention, essentially Bolton's secret weapon should reach Stannis either by the Braavosi banker, Theon or their travelling companions. Kill the Karstarks, take their supplies and his situation is still bad but certainly a lot less bad.
Of course it remains a mystery how Ramsey would know of the "magic sword" and, more importantly Mance, but you can make your own judgments. I personally thing GRRM would have a lot of convincing to do though if we were to believe Stannis perished.
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