South Sudan Independant

PC Mode

PanzerJaeger 00:16 07-12-2011

Originally Posted by HoreTore:
Things are not as bleak now as thry have been:

http://rs.resalliance.org/2011/01/12...onomic-growth/

In the prediction for the 10 fastest growing economies of the next four years, 7 of them are in Africa. And contrary to what warman fears, this is not because China isn't meddling, it is because China is meddling. China has given more growth and life to Africa in a couple of decades than what Europe has done since we first started our meddling there.

One thing you might notice that the article text missed about that list, is that all of those countries* are at peace and have a (relatively) stable political situation. In my opinion, peace, and to an extent democracy, is the key here. With more peace comes more economic growth, with more economic growth comes more peace.

*except from Congo, if they're talking about the big Congo and not the small Congo

I don't think that analysis is all that positive. Percentage growth can be very misleading. For example, a jump from 1 to 10 represents a percentage jump far greater than a jump from 100 to 110, despite the real numbers being equal. If such growth can be sustained over a long period of time, it can become significant. However, considering the growth is based almost entirely on commodity prices, that is hard to see happening considering the resource curse that is characteristic of such economies.

HoreTore 00:25 07-12-2011

I'm a math teacher PJ, I am well aware of how statistics can be misinterpreted.

And yes, the economies are based on raw materials. But what else can a dirt poor country with little infrastructure and human capital base their economy around? Raw materials will have to be the start. Then, as every other nation has done, they can shift focus later when the infrastructure, level of education, political stability, etc etc allows it.

Tellos Athenaios 00:53 07-12-2011

Originally Posted by PanzerJaeger:
I don't think that analysis is all that positive. Percentage growth can be very misleading. For example, a jump from 1 to 10 represents a percentage jump far greater than a jump from 100 to 110, despite the real numbers being equal. If such growth can be sustained over a long period of time, it can become significant.

Sure, but let's be realistic here: the difference between 1 and 10 units of economic output if you share it with 10M people is rather more appealing than the difference between 100 and 110M people given how prices will differ in the 1 unit vs the 100 unit stage. It's the same reason a 0.1% growth in the USA might amount to far more than 10% growth in Kenia, but 10% growth in Kenia buys the Kenians rather more lunch than 0.1% growth does the Americans.

Tuuvi 05:41 07-12-2011

I have some hope for the future of South Sudan, a lot of refugees from the civil war eventually ended up in the US, UK etc. and some of them now have college degrees. The ones that choose to return will be taking their skills and their experiences living with a functioning, stable government with them and I hope that they can make a difference.

PanzerJaeger 09:48 07-12-2011

Originally Posted by Tellos Athenaios:
Sure, but let's be realistic here: the difference between 1 and 10 units of economic output if you share it with 10M people is rather more appealing than the difference between 100 and 110M people given how prices will differ in the 1 unit vs the 100 unit stage. It's the same reason a 0.1% growth in the USA might amount to far more than 10% growth in Kenia, but 10% growth in Kenia buys the Kenians rather more lunch than 0.1% growth does the Americans.

That goes back to the resource curse. When wealth is found and not created, it is far too easy for those in power to abscond with it. As the article mentioned, the commodity industry might boost GDP, but it doesn't produce many jobs.

HoreTore 09:58 07-12-2011

Originally Posted by PanzerJaeger:
That goes back to the resource curse. When wealth is found and not created, it is far too easy for those in power to abscond with it. As the article mentioned, the commodity industry might boost GDP, but it doesn't produce many jobs.

That has been Congo's curse.

Raw materials are still Africa's main product, but they are diversifying. Economic management(ie. corruption etc) are improving, incomes are rising and China is investing heavily. Is it perfect? No, not at all, noone is claiming that. But the future is looking much, much brighter now than in the 80's and 90's.

Single Sign On provided by vBSSO