Netherworld III: Final Judgment [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

You are voting for that person...

Pizza all this is very confusing, you say you are and were a townie but at the same time defending TLD who is using the argument you were mafia to accuse others... bloody paradox...

I haven't been following very closely since I died. TLD thought I was mafia?

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Wrong doesn't mean he was scum though, it just means he was wrong, like so many here.

[Earthling]

Some of this discussion is quite a mess, don't know where to start. I'll go with the scum we have left, as asked for and my best theory of what we actually have.

There's the sword/fire killer. The only person to claim this is "Hades" was TLD, and he's had so many posts that reek of PIS it's still implausible to me that he's town. FWIW I am certainly good with that lynch today too.

I rather believe this killer is in a last mafia/mafia godfather situation, because of "finally showing himself," being able to kill through protection, and all the other mafia killers disappearing.

So I'd say 1 mafia, part of the original mafia team. The other 3 out of 4 (all killers seen in the writeups) seem to be dead. Preferable we would get him first.

I doubt that if there is any anti-town cult that they will gain kills or win immediately if we eliminate the mafia.

That said I'd certainly agree there are WAYYYYYY too many non-town and neutrals here, with no reveals and our limited tools for the town. Then we have people like Andres implying to have ended up in a second cult group rivaling the first (??? but he said the cults, plural, might oppose each other) so it's possible they are not fully anti-town anyway.

After the mafia are gone, if we don't win then it will be obvious. We'd need get whatever cult leader is left and it hopefully vanilla cultists won't matter after that.

That gives us a second "scum to look for" then.

Last mafia, cult leader. If we can be sure of getting either then of course go for them first, one mafia isn't going to win immediately either so we'd have a few more lynches yet if we could get the cult leader and guarantee we're safe from the cult first.

now some other comments on other stuff that came up:

If you were asking for/about anything I said or my views and wanted more than what I said above what you're looking for is probably below. All comments on public talk or the writeups again, anyway I still don't intend to run afoul of rules on reveals, still being careful, if someone does see something they think too much point it out or I'll wait and not respond more.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

first order of business I think relates to the lynch, I don't get pizza's defense of TLD either.

If pizza is vanilla townie, nothing he says would have any real evidence to it, so not worth hanging on his every word. A perspective is useful, sure, but he literally shouldn't have any additional information to worry about if he was vanilla town. And if he's not vanilla, then way too easy for him to be purposefully misleading especially as he already implied several times including with his own lynch that he was vanilla and we shouldn't listen much either.

The Last Days, tell us what Pizza wants to tell us.

So this is the best answer to what pizza has posted as far as I can tell. Though sorry to say I think it's a bit of a catch-22, if TLD claims vanilla and continues to claim pizza is lynched mafia that means we ignore any protests and just get it over with, and if TLD admits he's not vanilla that confirms like everybody's zillion suspicions of him the whole time. I guess we could accept him revealing as something like cult+the names of his other cultists so we can just catch the last mafia with the additional info, but even then he'd be fishy.

As for whoever pointed out the glyphz/jht connection, I believe it might have been Ironside and developed further with choxorn's case on jht. I can't take credit for the original idea, however I did look at their votes and as a result of that I do also agree there could be a connection.

So it doesn't make much sense that glyphz or jht are mafia, because of their votes against multiple other lynchees we suspect are the mafia, and when glyphz was about to get lynched basically nobody but townies were voting in his favor (and he didn't seem to care much anyway if he died, which could only go for a townie/cult recruit). So all that put together, plus the roleblocks on glyphz, it's possible they are cult but I would rule them out as mafia.

Lastly, Beskar, I don't know where you are getting that Mainyu is one of the player's characters. There is no good evidence of that in any writeup and it doesn't seem likely, unless you want to clarify you have more significant claims or info.

I get that the writeups are fiendish and confusing, I definitely can't be sure who is neutral, non-town, or what except in very few cases. Still, Mainyu seems like an NPC, unless you suspect a Loki-like situation to use an analogy, the very first death in the first night hints at something like that too but if that's true at this point we're in huge trouble so rather assume not. And some stuff, like the little girl/grandpa who've been varying wildly, and even disappeared from Diamondeye's lynch (first time since Day 1???) I have absolutely no idea if it's supposed to be clues or meaningful in the end.

Basically, I'd summarize that the writeups are massively confusing and the point of not revealing town or mafia remains intact, we barely have a handful of people confirmed as anything. GE as mafia and people killed at night are what we seem to know - otherwise many dead suspects like Renata, white_eyes, and Andres could have been neutrals, mafia, cult, anything.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can be vanilla and still have information.

The info comes not from my role or abilities, obviously.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Basically, I can point out avenues of logic that you're overlooking. I just can't say what I know.

[Earthling]

On the TLD/pizza situation I could say more but it really seems fruitless until living people either can answer or refuse to answer to things. If he or someone wants to hear more I could post part of a post I'd written up but cutting it here.

However, going back to look over some posts and issues brought up something else I am concerned about, definitely the best contribution I've got today, so this is for everyone.

Let's shift gears and ask something that's fairly independent, about just one person, and easy for anyone to read up on.

It would still trouble me enough not to see a lynch TLD today and this is not really for his own sake but the fact that there seems to be a more efficient, pro-town option for the lynch. I'm thinking I'll put myself down for encouraging a lynch of MRD as things stand right now.

If MRD is a major scum we needed to lynch, hurray, we're winning. If not, he's a cultist, so we're running in place at worst and hopefully the cult doesn't recruit every night so that might be a worthwhile blow.

Basically, it's the fact that it's a lynch with nothing to lose, and unless MRD/formerly robbiecon was cleared of being mafia for good reason it's not a bad chance of that either. Or if it's purely a cultist thing and the cultists are lying and MRD defends himself, well that's progress too.

The last mafia, even if he is TLD, can't win by overpowering everyone yet. So the MRD lynch looks too promising.

So when I went back looking at some posts, what we see with robbiecon then MRD is absurdly out of line. The main issue first is:

MRD, how can you have had some major anti-cult role/abilities and now you got recruited by the (a??) cult? That really needs answering immediately, more questions could follow.

[Earthling]

Actually, I'm just going to list out the general case, that seems best for the town at large here. Voting deadlines and no guarantee MRD responds and whatever, no need to be a stickler, I can write out everything and if people think to ignore it or decide it's just too much paranoia they're doing it with all the details, not waiting for me to say more tomorrow.

1) robbiecon's posts while he was around were simply scummy. He actively defended God Emperor who we're pretty sure was scum now, and that's about all he did actually.

2) robbiecon's character role gets a replacement player after he's been gone awhile, other presumed townies get WoK'd. Also this was already mentioned by other players, and the replacement issue is never perfect evidence on its own but it also beats random chance by far that something fishy is going on.

3) MRD makes vague implications about some anti-cult ability, then the claim is that he's with a cult.

What are our options of what is actually the case?

MRD/formerly robbiecon is still a townie. We do have a non zero chance that MRD is making stuff up just to be funny, I think many of us would say. But robbiecon was scummy, hence robbiecon was vanilla townie is a bad automatic assumption, and then we double down against just a joke with w&f claiming MRD is with the cult.

Or, he was a basic townie and is just a cult recruit now. Explains MRD acting silly, because he can, and w&f saying what he said so this is perhaps most likely.

Or, he's some other real scum who's only faking his way or made some alliance with a cult. Explains every observation here but doesn't mean some of them aren't just coincidences.

So if we lynch MRD, what happens?

Best case scenario is we lynch a real scum.
Worst case scenario is we lynch a cultist.

The very worst case of lynching a townie really looks to be out of the picture here - if MRD is something else neutral or is town we'd expect him to come clean and explain his role before the lynch.

I know the lynch overall could feel disappointing unless we have new evidence but it's also a strategic move for the town as we get near endgame.

And all that said, I highly doubt MRD or the former robbiecon was investigated/blocked in any way that could clear things up but someone living who can weigh in on that would help if it's relevant.

[Earthling]

Actually, put me back down for endorsing the TLD lynch. It just has to happen, no need for second guessing and I truly can't believe that he is a vanilla townie.

I'm letting annoyance at neutrals/cults in this game get to me too much. MRD being a basic cult recruit is very plausible but not enough of a catch if that's all it is, I'm convincing myself into hoping it would be more. Getting the mafia is the priority, and I should go with that.

We could easily just follow up tomorrow on MRD if nothing at all changes after this lynch, and much less trouble for everyone to do TLD today and possible-cult-situation-if-it-even-matters tomorrow than vice versa.