Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

Originally Posted by Memnon

Hm... I'm not entirely sure what to do, I wish the chain of confirmed townies hadn't been broken, but we got john at least.

Now I am glad that everyone understands what I meant about the unbroken chain; I was right that lynching John without scanning him was wise, and that trying to scan townies was more advantageous than scanning scumbags here.

Anyone seriously doubting the B-Ray lynch needs to go read some of his posts in the No Country For Old Men thread. He's doing the same sort of half lurking, posting-but-not-contributing thing here as he was in that game. I wouldn't 100% trust any of the scans after Pop Rom, since the chain breaking means any old scum could have gotten the shirt. Also, I'm not really sure about Believer's scan. Sure Warman's hard to read, but he isn't exactly a feared mafioso either.

I didn't want to reveal my true feelings about Warman until today, and tossed some slime on him yesterday to be sure.

I actually believe he's townie. I believe the scan, but I would have doubted it if he flipped scum.

I trust Warman over anyone else alive right now, as far as trust of the unscanned-by-the-chain would go. Maybe thats a mistake but he's the one who I see has done none of the classic "I've got a teammate" moves, which makes me believe he's town.

I never try to read him, I've tried this time, this is my novice conclusion.

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I didn't want to reveal my true feelings about Warman until today, and tossed some slime on him yesterday to be sure.

I actually believe he's townie. I believe the scan, but I would have doubted it if he flipped scum.

I trust Warman over anyone else alive right now, as far as trust of the unscanned-by-the-chain would go. Maybe thats a mistake but he's the one who I see has done none of the classic "I've got a teammate" moves, which makes me believe he's town.

I never try to read him, I've tried this time, this is my novice conclusion.

If you're right, and the presumptions about the shirt are correct, this would clear Believer as well, leaving B_Ray, Ishmael, Seamus, and Yaropolk, I presume the only reason that myself and the others in my chain(excepting you Pizzaguy) are alive is to frame us, so will they try to frame Believer and Warman as well? Or will they finally strike?

Also, the only thing we have to fear is Warman's name getting longer from this, so no more variations on his name, we're all giving him ideas

Originally Posted by Memnon

If you're right, and the presumptions about the shirt are correct, this would clear Believer as well, leaving B_Ray, Ishmael, Seamus, and Yaropolk, I presume the only reason that myself and the others in my chain(excepting you Pizzaguy) are alive is to frame us, so will they try to frame Believer and Warman as well? Or will they finally strike?

Also, the only thing we have to fear is Warman's name getting longer from this, so no more variations on his name, we're all giving him ideas

Technically Believer is not cleared. He could have told the truth about Warman as mafia anyway. Which is what I would have done if I were Believer.

They have to strike you soon or accept defeat. I think they are trying to get the paranoia to happen.

Thing is, it is also possible the shirt is a bastard, giving us false results. As such, the game host is a bastard , and we're silly for trusting the shirt.

I'll take a risk and trust the shirt.

Originally Posted by Populus Romanus

I'll take a risk and trust the shirt.

Yeah, losing a bastard game isn't worth the fear infecting games with sane hosts. Assume the shirt isn't a low blow to the townies, or assume there was something useful about it even to the town; since it gave either sane, insane, or lie results, and lie results means bastard game, it's either trustworthy in the standard way or trustworthy in the inverted sense; and johnhughthom didn't bother suggesting that the shirt was an insane detective, and if he was townie he would know that for sure.

Therefore, the shirt is sane unless its in the hands of a wolf.

BY THE GREEN BLOOD OF pever, YOU GUYS, KILL MORTY ALREADY!

Am I that convincing? Maybe I should get into that Netherworld game and vote one of the survivors. Perhaps even the host will be fooled.

Originally Posted by Double A

BY THE GREEN BLOOD OF pever, YOU GUYS, KILL MORTY ALREADY!

1: pevergreen, theres a name I haven't heard in a while.

2: Who the heck is Morty?

I meant Monty. My finger slipped... across half the keyboard.

Um.. he's dead already, lynched I believe

Originally Posted by Memnon

Um.. he's dead already, lynched I believe

Well Double A says we got to kill him again! Vote: Morty

Well, this is awkward, it appears that you've been killed as well...

Originally Posted by Memnon

Well, this is awkward, it appears that you've been killed as well...

I know exactly who I'm going to vig first in Capo.

Originally Posted by Montmorency

I know exactly who I'm going to vig first in Capo.

Double A?

Vote: B-Ray; Vote: Warman etc.

I don't agree with your mafia numbers assessment, Pizza. I think that many mafiosi would be an imbalance from a games construction perspective.

I am happy with the B-Ray vote, at least until I hear him argue against it a bit.

Other thoughts?

Upon re-reading through the thread I'm still getting scummy vibes from Seamus. I'm not going to compile evidence to support this, as I'm rather lazy and don't have much time at the moment - call it a hunch, if you will. I realise that I'm not selling this case very well, but feel free to scan through the thread yourselves and see what conclusions you draw. Anyway:

vote: Seamus Fermanagh
vote: Warman

Also, FoS: Yarapolk, for similar reasons to the above.

Originally Posted by Ishmael

Upon re-reading through the thread I'm still getting scummy vibes from Seamus. I'm not going to compile evidence to support this, as I'm rather lazy and don't have much time at the moment - call it a hunch, if you will. I realise that I'm not selling this case very well, but feel free to scan through the thread yourselves and see what conclusions you draw. Anyway:

vote: Seamus Fermanagh
vote: Warman

Also, FoS: Yarapolk, for similar reasons to the above.

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

Originally Posted by Tratorix

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

Also: if Seamus comes up as guilty lynch Ishmael.

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Vote: B-Ray; Vote: Warman etc.

I don't agree with your mafia numbers assessment, Pizza. I think that many mafiosi would be an imbalance from a games construction perspective.

Small game with a "detective" that cannot die?

Disagree. Mafia needs at least one over standard. Standard for a game this size is 2-3.

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Small game with a "detective" that cannot die?

Disagree. Mafia needs at least one over standard. Standard for a game this size is 2-3.

I say 3. 4 seems too powerful for a small game and two seems underpowered.

Originally Posted by Tratorix

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

I'd like to point out that poor judgement does not necessarily make a mafioso - look at my earlier work in Vespasian as an example . I really don't see where the case on B_Ray is coming from, though - sure he's posting similarly to his game as mafia, but that may just be his posting style. He might be scum, but Yarapolk and Seamus seem far more likely.

Originally Posted by Ishmael

I'd like to point out that poor judgement does not necessarily make a mafioso - look at my earlier work in Vespasian as an example . I really don't see where the case on B_Ray is coming from, though - sure he's posting similarly to his game as mafia, but that may just be his posting style. He might be scum, but Yarapolk and Seamus seem far more likely.

Scum scum scum.

Originally Posted by Yaropolk

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

• For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
  Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
  Confirmed innocents are not being killed.

Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

Also, the only thing Yaropolk has ever given a flipping dooky about all game was getting the shirt for himself and, failing that, Believer scanning Memnon.

Oh, I think Warman should scan Memnon all right.

I don't need a scanning shirt at this point. Yaropolk gotta die.

Along with his buddy B_Ray.

Along with his buddy Ishmael.


But, let's pretend I am wrong for a moment.

Let's see...

out of these three, which of them are townie?

Which? Which witch is which?


Yaropolk.... B_Ray.... Ishmael.

Which is townie, which is scum.

Dunno. Willing to place bets on Yaropolk being a scummer presently, he really wants to get the shirt and doesn't really care about a whole lot else.

B_Ray or Ishmael... which of these should be scanned?

Ishmael said he would be fine with being scanned.

Perhaps B_Ray would like to plead for his life..... and beg us to scan him.

I want to hear some seriously pitiable groveling now.

VOTE: B_Ray
VOTE: ELITEAFKWARMANBREADMAN etc.
Scan Seamus. Do it. Also I think we should lynch Seamus if he comes up guilty, we can't afford the risk that there's one more scum than we thought.

Or is all that really necessary? Lemme see.

• Lynch B_Ray blind (Check)
• Scan Seamus, Seamus gets murdered or gets the shirt or gets lynched. (Check)
• Lynch Yaropolk blind if Seamus flips townie. (Check)
• Anyone can scan Ishmael, doesn't really matter at that point. (Check)

That's everyone but Believer.

And, if Believer is scum, his buddies will be dead by then anyway. (Checkmate)


Game is over. Go ahead and scan Seamus then. If he's guilty he dies faster. If he's innocent he dies faster or gets the shirt.

Love this plan.

I like the bit where I don't get lynched . Whilst you guys have swayed me away from lynching Seamus right now, I still think Yarapolk looks more guilty than B_Ray. Nevertheless, in the interests of town unity:

unvote, vote: B_Ray