Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Normal Game (assume 2 Mafia, one lynched midgame):

Day 1 - 17
Day 2 - 15
Day 3 - 13
Day 4 - 11
Day 5 - 9
Day 6 - 7
Day 7 - 5
Day 8 - 3

Investigations - 7

No Lynch Game (assume 2 Mafia):

Day 1 - 17
Day 2 - 16
Day 3 - 15
Day 4 - 14
Day 5 - 13
Day 6 - 12
Day 7 - 11
Day 8 - 10
Day 9 - 9
Day 10 - 8
Day 11 - 7
Day 12 - 6
Day 13 - 5 (assume one mafioso lynched today)
Day 14 - 3

Investigations - 13

Now, probability was never my strong suit, but 13 is a lot better than 6. The Mafia might presumably vote each other for the shirt later in the game. That's fine. That can be used as evidence.

In the statistical sense, No Lynch is quantifiably superior.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why wasn't I scanned N1?

Gosh, I don't want people to touch me N1, everyone touches me.

I finally want to be touched, and I am getting as much attention as a dateless loser on prom night. I wasn't even fricking murdered.

Vote: Whoever

[Askthepizzaguy]

Holy delayed double post Batman.

[Ishmael]

Can I just ask our host to clarify something? If the person who is voted to receive the shirt is killed by the mafia that night, will we still get the result of their scan? I'll vote once I get the answer, I just want my pretty blue vote to be in the same post as the black one .

[TheLastDays]

Haha you guys are hilarious. Awesome wagons so far

Lynch Pizza to upset him even more

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Pizza = Pizza doesn't try to catch any mafia.

Starting from Netherworld III and lasts until the fiery underworld freezes over.

[Yaropolk]

What do pizza and my infant have in common? All they know how to say is "Me me me me me"!
http://goo.gl/kei1

Vote: Johhoq
Vote: No Lynch

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Uh, Warman used to be Populus Romanus, right?

I really don't want to have to type out Warman's ungodly username.

No, I been Warman since I started in 2004. All other "Warman's" I known have quit the game over the years.

Is this like an alternate account, or are you a completely different person also named Warman? Because this is confusing me. But regardless of who you are you have a point. Vote: Johhoq

No, I guess he was just masquerading as me .


Vote: Johhog

[Askthepizzaguy]

What do pizza and my infant have in common? All they know how to say is "Me me me me me"!
http://goo.gl/kei1

Vote: Johhoq
Vote: No Lynch

unvote, vote: Yaropolk

You you you you you.

[Montmorency]

A light shines through.

Unvote; Vote: No Lynch

[Johhog]

As Montmorency pointed out we want to NL here.

VOTE: Johhog
VOTE: No Lynch

FOR SHIRT AND FOR COUNTRY.

Oh, and I second the question if we get a scan or not if (when) I die. I suppose we would, or Mafia would always kill the shirt holder.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No lynches are lame!

I'm guilty. Lynch me.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

As Montmorency pointed out we want to NL here.

VOTE: Johhog
VOTE: No Lynch

FOR SHIRT AND FOR COUNTRY.

Oh, and I second the question if we get a scan or not if (when) I die. I suppose we would, or Mafia would always kill the shirt holder.

How about Swissland?

[Johhog]

FOR SHIRT AND FOR SWEDEN.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

How about my Hussars?

[Memnon]

Ok, so for the shirt so far it's 7 for Johhog, 1 for Believer, and 1 for Warman(Populus or outrageous-one-above-me?).

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Voting "no lynch" in the early game feeds right into mafia goals. The mafia wants to be the only ones killing early on so as to minimize the chance of early investigations identifying one. The time for "no lynch" votes, if ever, is in the mid to late game when investigation suspects have been narrowed. Moreover, your assumption of one mid-game lynch in your metric is optimistic in practice. Read over some of Sasaki's comments on the no lynch route.

Populus squirmed enough for now. Unvote: Populus; Vote: Montmorency.

You're just too willing to let the mafia set the pace. Believer too, with his minimal vote support and third on the bandwagon status, also bears some evaluation.

[Askthepizzaguy]

unvote, vote: Montmorency

I'm doing the lazy strategy this time because I'm still disappoint.

Scan me tonight.

[Montmorency]

Alright, link Sasaki's comments.

[Memnon]

Ok, Seamus' post convinced me, I guess I'll Vote: ELITEKWARMAN8GINGYBREADMENMILK for making me try to pronounce his name in my head

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Alright, link Sasaki's comments.

Lordy it has been a while. I think they were in one of GH's Mafia renditions 5-7. The issue keeps cropping up from time to time. I put no lynch in Capo because, with all the acitve night actions, it sometimes made more sense to investigate and wait....but capo generally has 20+ investigations going on each night along with all the blood, so the numbers are different. In a bog standard 1 detective, I remember the numbers end up putting more pressure on the mafia, at least in the end game, by lynching to reduce the field early on. Brutal, but ends up working.

[johnhughthom]

No lynch = sucks for town.

[Montmorency]

I'm not going to hunt through several thousand posts for this, so I'll take your word for it.

Unvote; Vote: PopulusRomanus

I thought we'd at least compromised on "better for mid-to-late game."

[TheLastDays]

No lynches are lame!

I'm guilty. Lynch me.

Seconded I want Pizza as accompanying me in death.

[Populus Romanus]

I'm not going to hunt through several thousand posts for this, so I'll take your word for it.

Unvote; Vote: PopulusRomanus

I thought we'd at least compromised on "better for mid-to-late game."

you're doing it wrong!

[Montmorency]

So desu ne.

[Zack]

Can I just ask our host to clarify something? If the person who is voted to receive the shirt is killed by the mafia that night, will we still get the result of their scan?

Yes.

[bestrfcplayer]

Meh. B_Ray. Haven't really been following up on this game so.........

[Zack]

Use the Vote: Player format.

And make a new post, I'd prefer you don't edit posts that have votes in them.

[Ishmael]

Alright then, now that's clarified I'll

vote: Johhog

And, on a hunch (read: random guess as nobody has made a decent case yet)

vote: Seamus Fermanagh