Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I just thought of something.

Your mileage may vary, but my murder proves I'm townie, and my scan proves three people are townies.

Which means I managed to not get lynched based on nonsense this time. Just barely, and it was mind-numbing how close it was.

Now let's see:

bestrfcplayer- probably gonna be replaced and stuff
Johhog -- Scanned Town (N1)
Memnon -- Scanned Town (N3)
Populus Romanus -- Scanned Town (N2)

So who does that leave....

B_Ray
Believer
Ishmael
johnhughthom
Montmorency
Seamus Fermanagh
Tratorix
Yaropolk
Warman


And what do I see:

TALLY:

Johhog: 2 (JHT, Tratorix)
ATPG: 2 (B_Ray, Ishmael)

Memnon: 1 (ATPG)
Montmorency: 1 (Believer)
Warman: 1 (Memnon)
Abstain: 0
Not Voting: 6 (bestrfcplayer, Montmorency, Populus Romanus, Seamus Fermanagh, Yaropolk, Warman)
bestrfcplayer will be replaced if he doesn't vote next Day Phase.


SHIRT TALLY:
ATPG: 7 (ATPG, Believer, Ishmael, Johhog, JHT, Montmorency, Tratorix)

Seamus: 1 (B_Ray)
Montmorency: 1 (Memnon)
Not Voting: 5 (bestrfcplayer, Populus Romanus, Seamus Fermanagh, Yaropolk, Warman)

Ishmael- voted for me to die, and also gave me the shirt. Makes no sense.
Montmorency- Late on the shirt wagon.
Tratorix- Late on the shirt wagon.
B_Ray- Voted for me to die
Believer- Usual Believer.
johnhughthom- went for Johhog and gave me the shirt rather easily yesterday.
Seamus Fermanagh- Hasn't been posting much.
Yaropolk- Hasn't been posting much.
Warman- Hasn't been posting much.


Now which of these is the scummiest. That's the big question for me anyway.

We have Montmorency and Tratorix openly questioning the results, but not acting upon it, and then voting me the shirt. Then I died. Both now also want the shirt.

Yaropolk wants the shirt and is voting for himself, rather uncharacteristically. Definitely not adding much to the discussion.

Ishmael's move makes no sense whatsoever. But it also makes no sense whatsoever from a scumbag, I think.... it neither clears him nor condemns him.

Johnhughthom feels a bit conciliatory towards me.

But really, I think I know which one takes the cake.

Vote: TheLastDays

"I didn't get a PM" posts are a ploy as old as the hills and should be discouraged. Populous, you may well be next for the same reason unless another candidate comes along. Nice spoof of this pizza.

Vote: ATPG

He's a fine fellow. Why not?

By the way, B Ray, you were supposed to vote for me to get the shirt since I am "lengendary," not vote to lynch me. Naughty, naughty.....

Fortunately, we are all aware that "legendary" is only one little step up from "fictional." Any heroic character I possess is of the Flashman variety.

Voted to lynch someone, I'll assume they're townie for now, just because our luck isn't that good.

Second one to vote me the shirt, possible snuggling attempt. Actually seems to flinch when he gets a vote, and downplays his abilities.

Vote: Johhog, reasons as above.

Vote: Populous as a means of exerting pressure. Thoughts?

Goes along with the shirt wagon, votes for someone who just got scanned as townie, and is second on the Populus wagon.

Voting "no lynch" in the early game feeds right into mafia goals. The mafia wants to be the only ones killing early on so as to minimize the chance of early investigations identifying one. The time for "no lynch" votes, if ever, is in the mid to late game when investigation suspects have been narrowed. Moreover, your assumption of one mid-game lynch in your metric is optimistic in practice. Read over some of Sasaki's comments on the no lynch route.

Populus squirmed enough for now. Unvote: Populus; Vote: Montmorency.

You're just too willing to let the mafia set the pace. Believer too, with his minimal vote support and third on the bandwagon status, also bears some evaluation.

Arguing against the No Lynch, and using not-present "legendary" Sasaki Kojiro's arguments, if they were indeed his arguments, to bolster his point.

No Lynch late in the game reduces the chances of hitting scum, and early lynches increases the chances of lynching townies. It's entirely backward, actually.

That Seamus would go so far as to cite Sasaki to make this argument means he realizes without a credible source other than himself, arguing this point will look extra-scummy.

That means Seamus is worried about looking scummy. Which means he's scum.

Lordy it has been a while. I think they were in one of GH's Mafia renditions 5-7. The issue keeps cropping up from time to time. I put no lynch in Capo because, with all the acitve night actions, it sometimes made more sense to investigate and wait....but capo generally has 20+ investigations going on each night along with all the blood, so the numbers are different. In a bog standard 1 detective, I remember the numbers end up putting more pressure on the mafia, at least in the end game, by lynching to reduce the field early on. Brutal, but ends up working.

This plan relies far too heavily on investigation results we can't even trust, sacrificing our best-odds random lynches in the endgame to make it happen.

I don't trust it, and I don't trust Seamus would make this argument as a townie in this game.

Got to this late on Sunday.

Interesting argument from pizza, and I agree it would be a deliciouslsy devious trick by Zack.

Surprisingly, for me, memnon voted for monty without much support and then when pressured, voted for warman....a second vote for little reason in the same round. Does seem like squirming to me.

I would've vote memnon

Snrubbing me with the "I agree", then smeared some suspicion onto Memnon, who is now cleared.

Of course, Seamus also knew that I'd be scanning Memnon last night, which would make him look like an uninformed townie in the morning when the results came back townie.

This is all very good stuff.

Seamus is interested in early lynches, on townies, without much thought or effort put into those lynches, and is arguing for us to rely on the detective results we can't trust, in the endgame which is going to be approaching soon, and we haven't lynched any scums yet unless they're TheLastDays, and his response to me pointing out the deviously untrustworthy nature of the detective results is to go "interesting argument".

Now, I'd argue here that he hasn't taken much of a stand on anything, but that's wrong. He's taken a very firm stand on early lynches followed by relying on late detective results. And his argument was so scummy, he needed to cite Sasaki Kojiro to make it even sound like a townie would ever advocate such a thing.

Maybe Sasaki would, but he's also the type to insist someone is guilty for no reason after he's dead and demand someone's death. Which isn't particularly pro-town because there's no way to argue with a dead proven townie with no argument. Sasaki tested out many avant garde ideas, not all of them were particularly good, and I think they are especially wrong here.




If I were alive, I'd be voting for Seamus Fermanagh. He's no townie.