Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

But in all seriousness, this is a possibility.

While I'm not going to ATPVolcano all over your faces, I am going to request folks double-check any scans done by Believer. Not that I don't think he should still get the shirt.

And I'd like him to scan you. If you're town, then the scumbags leaving you both alive just to increase my paranoia when I can't even vote is good for the town; if you're mafia he has to either bus you or "clear" you, and then if one of you goes down, you both do.

Any way you slice that pizza, town wins. So therefore, ATPVolcano says proceed.

Alright, this compels a reply from me.

1. It's a possibility that John was sacrificed by his scumbuddies, but not you. Hmmmm.
2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alright, this compels a reply from me.

1. It's a possibility that John was sacrificed by his scumbuddies, but not you. Hmmmm.
2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.

This compels a reply from me.

You're right, Montmorency, I am actually scum. My performance in this game is more devious than my Shadow Fort performance; more dangerous than my Legend of Zelda performance. I have gone from having diamond encrusted ones in Socially Unacceptable Mini Mafia to solid titanium. I am so confident I'm going to win, that I don't mind revealing I'm guilty right here, right now. And no one will listen.

Only you, Monty. Only you know the truth.

Congratulations.

<--- The clown face makes this sort of thing okay.

[Montmorency]

Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

"Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.

[Tratorix]

Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

"Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.

This might have carried more weight before you claimed mafia.

[Montmorency]

Well, so did you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well, so did you.

You want us to lynch Tratorix?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Even if you're town, Monty, I have to side with Tratorix on this one.

You've completely shot yourself in the foot with that move, and now I'm showing you why you should never repeat that in future games.

If you're scum, you've handicapped yourself severely; if you're town, same deal. You're only making it harder on your team.

[Montmorency]

If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.

Come on townie Monty, point some fingers.

Who is my scum buddy?

[Visor]

2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.

I wouldn't think anything of it. I have a habit of being a night target recently. *shrug*

[TheLastDays]

Also, a replacement is usually low on the suspect list. The three confirmed townies, given the discussion about the shirts mechanic, provied much better controversy material. Killing one of them would basically clear them all and the scum don't want to do that at this stage, because, as unreasonable as it might seem, they will want to keep the possibility of those scans being unreliable in the air.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

Pizza, you did a good job spotlighitng jht. His posting upsurge confirmed it even before teh scan for me. Well done. Sorry, JHT.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

[Yaropolk]

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

• For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
  Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
  Confirmed innocents are not being killed.

Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

[Montmorency]

We'd actually agreed to stop discussing it, but wow.

Why don't more people listen to Yaropolk? Yaropolk has my unconditional love, no matter who's right here.

[johnhughthom]

Oh well, at least I didn't get lynched in the deciding round this time. Still at least I get to amuse myself for the rest of the game watching you all try to figure out the game. It's hilarious how far you all are from the truth, even more hilarious it took this long for you to lynch me, despite my making it blatantly obvious I was scum to Double A, and most hilarious of all is the fact the answer to the puzzle of the shirt is staring you all in the face and nobody can see it. We have done well so far my scum buddies, now lets sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.

Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

• For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
  Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
  Confirmed innocents are not being killed.

Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

Also, the only thing Yaropolk has ever given a flipping dooky about all game was getting the shirt for himself and, failing that, Believer scanning Memnon.

Oh, I think Warman should scan Memnon all right.

I don't need a scanning shirt at this point. Yaropolk gotta die.

Along with his buddy B_Ray.

Along with his buddy Ishmael.


But, let's pretend I am wrong for a moment.

Let's see...

out of these three, which of them are townie?

Which? Which witch is which?


Yaropolk.... B_Ray.... Ishmael.

Which is townie, which is scum.

Dunno. Willing to place bets on Yaropolk being a scummer presently, he really wants to get the shirt and doesn't really care about a whole lot else.

B_Ray or Ishmael... which of these should be scanned?

Ishmael said he would be fine with being scanned.

Perhaps B_Ray would like to plead for his life..... and beg us to scan him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I want to hear some seriously pitiable groveling now.