Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

"Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.

[Tratorix]

Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

"Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.

This might have carried more weight before you claimed mafia.

[Montmorency]

Well, so did you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Even if you're town, Monty, I have to side with Tratorix on this one.

You've completely shot yourself in the foot with that move, and now I'm showing you why you should never repeat that in future games.

If you're scum, you've handicapped yourself severely; if you're town, same deal. You're only making it harder on your team.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well, so did you.

You want us to lynch Tratorix?

[Montmorency]

If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.

Come on townie Monty, point some fingers.

Who is my scum buddy?

[Montmorency]

Come on townie Monty, point some fingers.

Who is my scum buddy?

I resist...

[Populus Romanus]

I admit! I am pizzas coconspirator.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I resist...

So far you seem to think it's me, Memnon, Johhog, and Populus Romanus. Which would make Johnhughthom a townie that we're destroying this round.

Aha says Pizza, now we're getting somewhere. So, pray tell, if all the scums are bunched up together and "cleared" or self-murdered, what happens if literally anyone else in the game scans Memnon, which I've argued should happen soon?

Whoops!




So what if it's just me that is scum, and I'm leaving Memnon, Johhog, and Romanus alive to make them seem like they're my partners. So why on earth did I argue that the chain of investigations needed to remain unbroken? That means I'm arguing that we lynch anyone that flips scum that Populus Romanus scanned. Which means I'm dead and encouraging the death of my scum buddies, whenever they get scanned. And I also said to lynch Johnny without bothering to even scan him. And it would mean by definition Johnhughthom is scum.

Whoops!




So I'm still struggling to comprehend how this is a winning move for me. So quite honestly I need help, mister Burns. Show me the money. Who are my partners? Which of these fictional accounts are you suggesting are non-fiction? Or is it time to put that Pizza=Scum puppy to sleep already?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I admit! I am pizzas coconspirator.

Quiet you, or you'll taste the back of me hand. You deserve it for stabbing me so many times under my explicit instructions to do so.

[Montmorency]

So far you seem to think it's me, Memnon, Johhog, and Populus Romanus. Which would make Johnhughthom a townie that we're destroying this round.

Aha says Pizza, now we're getting somewhere. So, pray tell, if all the scums are bunched up together and "cleared" or self-murdered, what happens if literally anyone else in the game scans Memnon, which I've argued should happen soon?

Whoops!




So what if it's just me that is scum, and I'm leaving Memnon, Johhog, and Romanus alive to make them seem like they're my partners. So why on earth did I argue that the chain of investigations needed to remain unbroken? That means I'm arguing that we lynch anyone that flips scum that Populus Romanus scanned. Which means I'm dead and encouraging the death of my scum buddies, whenever they get scanned. And I also said to lynch Johnny without bothering to even scan him. And it would mean by definition Johnhughthom is scum.

Whoops!




So I'm still struggling to comprehend how this is a winning move for me. So quite honestly I need help, mister Burns. Show me the money. Who are my partners? Which of these fictional accounts are you suggesting are non-fiction? Or is it time to put that Pizza=Scum puppy to sleep already?

Let's wrap this up here. For the past however many hours, I've been suggesting the former as a possibility. And yes, I have also wanted Memnon rescanned. But another possibility is that your support for a Memnon-scanning is just a way to convince town that "Oh yeah, can't be scum if he's suggesting that". As in, WIFOM. There's no way to prove this as yet, of course, but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude." BTW, so far this turn you've been arguing for two scans on Tratorix.

Ok? Arguing it won't get anyone anywhere, as there's nothing to do but wait for the game to progress. And I'm done with it. Don't bring it up and neither will I.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Let's wrap this up here. For the past however many hours, I've been suggesting the former as a possibility. And yes, I have also wanted Memnon rescanned. But another possibility is that your support for a Memnon-scanning is just a way to convince town that "Oh yeah, can't be scum if he's suggesting that". As in, WIFOM. There's no way to prove this as yet, of course, but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude." BTW, so far this turn you've been arguing for two scans on Tratorix.

Ok? Arguing it won't get anyone anywhere, as there's nothing to do but wait for the game to progress. And I'm done with it. Don't bring it up and neither will I.

I just want to wrap this up with my own response, and I'll drop it.

but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude."

Nay nay nay, in fact I've suggested I have the testicular fortitude and I'd do just about anything as scum, and that was not my only refutation.

The only ever time I've suggested I wouldn't do something is if such a move demonstrates a lack of cerebral fortitude. In order for me to do as you're suggesting, I'd have to be herp-derp in the brain, that's my conclusion anyway.

So I'm just trying to figure out if you think I'm a herpa-derper, or if you think my cojones are extra meaty. I'm curious. So far, your answer is that the pizza is actually a top sirloin steak. I can live with that, but in the back of my mind I'm worried that people could ever believe I'd try a tactic this self-defeating.

1) Kill self
2) Bus John
3) leave scanned townies alive
4) Say don't trust the results, making everyone fair game for a lynch
5) Asking to be scanned N1
6) Asking for others to double-confirm Memnon as town

If this is a plan, I must have been on drugs.

I also struggle to think how I'd sell this plan to my partners.

Hey guys.... I'm going to kill myself, threaten to lynch and nearly lynch or actually lynch you guys, and ask townies to scan me, and then scan you guys.

Then, somehow, we will win. Who's with me???


The defense rests.... in peace.

[Visor]

Screw you scumbags. Not cool.

[Johhog]

VOTE: johnhughthom It wasn't enough with two names, eh?
VOTE: Believer In Believer We Believe.

[TheLastDays]

Hey guys.... I'm going to kill myself, threaten to lynch and nearly lynch or actually lynch you guys, and ask townies to scan me, and then scan you guys.

Then, somehow, we will win. Who's with me???

I'm in! Good that they haven't figured out we were scum this game. I thought it was over when I let myself be lynched over townie JHT but after you did your awesome performance and killed yourself, making them vote the shirt to our scumbuddy Populus we could frame him and now we're on the way to win!

In all seriousness, confirm the scan on Memnon tonight.

[Believer]

Vote: JHT

Vote: Believer


Guys, you're making me blush. :$

[TheLastDays]

Screw you scumbags. Not cool.

You post too much

[Ishmael]

You post too much

And you're a Queenslander :-).

vote: Johnhughthom
vote: Believer

for obvious reasons.

[TheLastDays]

see? that's why I hate detective results. Where's the discussion? Everyone goes JHT and Believer "for obvious reasons" and there's no value coming from this round's discussion.

I dare you all to keep talking. The town doesn't have to fear information and talking, the scum has. Everyone who doesn't post at least 2 posts seperate from his voting post today is scum! I have spoken

DEATH TO LURKING!

[Ishmael]

The thing is though that we don't have much additional information to yesterday, so there's only so much that we can still cover in discussion (especially considering ATPG's massive analyses). The only new thing is that the shirt has registered a maifa scan, which looks like it might be legit seeing as JHT was already on our mafia shortlist. Personally I'm using this as evidence to support my radical theory that the shirt works exactly as advertised, but our sample size of scanees (particularly those who are guilty) is still rather small to be drawing concrete conclusions.

[Visor]

2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.

I wouldn't think anything of it. I have a habit of being a night target recently. *shrug*

[TheLastDays]

Also, a replacement is usually low on the suspect list. The three confirmed townies, given the discussion about the shirts mechanic, provied much better controversy material. Killing one of them would basically clear them all and the scum don't want to do that at this stage, because, as unreasonable as it might seem, they will want to keep the possibility of those scans being unreliable in the air.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

Pizza, you did a good job spotlighitng jht. His posting upsurge confirmed it even before teh scan for me. Well done. Sorry, JHT.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

[Yaropolk]

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

• For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
  Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
  Confirmed innocents are not being killed.

Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

[Montmorency]

We'd actually agreed to stop discussing it, but wow.

Why don't more people listen to Yaropolk? Yaropolk has my unconditional love, no matter who's right here.

[johnhughthom]

Oh well, at least I didn't get lynched in the deciding round this time. Still at least I get to amuse myself for the rest of the game watching you all try to figure out the game. It's hilarious how far you all are from the truth, even more hilarious it took this long for you to lynch me, despite my making it blatantly obvious I was scum to Double A, and most hilarious of all is the fact the answer to the puzzle of the shirt is staring you all in the face and nobody can see it. We have done well so far my scum buddies, now lets sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.

Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

[TheLastDays]

Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

You. Suck. I. Win.

[B-Wing]

All this excitement has made me prematurely erupt.

I gotta say, I absolutely love the idea of ATPV being a mafia and having himself murdered to provide the ultimate cover. It's brilliant - probably too far fetched, but infinitely appealing. On that topic, I've always assumed team kills were against mafia rules. Is that not actually the case?

vote: JHT
What are the chances his confession is a lie, like Montmorency's and APTV's?

vote: Believer
Why not.

I'm going to have to come up with a volcanic name for Yaropolk after he pulled an ATPG, lurking the whole game and then hitting us with a detailed analysis. At least he contained it in one post.

To save me the trouble of searching through the thread on my lunch break, would anyone be willing to tally up who JHT has voted for during the game? I'm thinking you could eliminate those players from the mafia choices.