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Thread: Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

  1. #481

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

    "Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  2. #482
    Member Member Tratorix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Ad hominem that doesn't actually address anything. Ayup.

    "Oh Monty, you so wacky" just isn't going to cut it.
    This might have carried more weight before you claimed mafia.

  3. #483

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Well, so did you.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  4. #484
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Even if you're town, Monty, I have to side with Tratorix on this one.

    You've completely shot yourself in the foot with that move, and now I'm showing you why you should never repeat that in future games.

    If you're scum, you've handicapped yourself severely; if you're town, same deal. You're only making it harder on your team.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  5. #485
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Well, so did you.
    You want us to lynch Tratorix?
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  6. #486

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  7. #487
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    If there won't be an answer, I'll let it be.
    Come on townie Monty, point some fingers.

    Who is my scum buddy?
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  8. #488

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Come on townie Monty, point some fingers.

    Who is my scum buddy?
    I resist...
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  9. #489
    Guest Member Populus Romanus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    I admit! I am pizzas coconspirator.

  10. #490
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I resist...
    So far you seem to think it's me, Memnon, Johhog, and Populus Romanus. Which would make Johnhughthom a townie that we're destroying this round.

    Aha says Pizza, now we're getting somewhere. So, pray tell, if all the scums are bunched up together and "cleared" or self-murdered, what happens if literally anyone else in the game scans Memnon, which I've argued should happen soon?

    Whoops!




    So what if it's just me that is scum, and I'm leaving Memnon, Johhog, and Romanus alive to make them seem like they're my partners. So why on earth did I argue that the chain of investigations needed to remain unbroken? That means I'm arguing that we lynch anyone that flips scum that Populus Romanus scanned. Which means I'm dead and encouraging the death of my scum buddies, whenever they get scanned. And I also said to lynch Johnny without bothering to even scan him. And it would mean by definition Johnhughthom is scum.

    Whoops!




    So I'm still struggling to comprehend how this is a winning move for me. So quite honestly I need help, mister Burns. Show me the money. Who are my partners? Which of these fictional accounts are you suggesting are non-fiction? Or is it time to put that Pizza=Scum puppy to sleep already?
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  11. #491
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Populus Romanus View Post
    I admit! I am pizzas coconspirator.
    Quiet you, or you'll taste the back of me hand. You deserve it for stabbing me so many times under my explicit instructions to do so.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  12. #492

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    So far you seem to think it's me, Memnon, Johhog, and Populus Romanus. Which would make Johnhughthom a townie that we're destroying this round.

    Aha says Pizza, now we're getting somewhere. So, pray tell, if all the scums are bunched up together and "cleared" or self-murdered, what happens if literally anyone else in the game scans Memnon, which I've argued should happen soon?

    Whoops!




    So what if it's just me that is scum, and I'm leaving Memnon, Johhog, and Romanus alive to make them seem like they're my partners. So why on earth did I argue that the chain of investigations needed to remain unbroken? That means I'm arguing that we lynch anyone that flips scum that Populus Romanus scanned. Which means I'm dead and encouraging the death of my scum buddies, whenever they get scanned. And I also said to lynch Johnny without bothering to even scan him. And it would mean by definition Johnhughthom is scum.

    Whoops!




    So I'm still struggling to comprehend how this is a winning move for me. So quite honestly I need help, mister Burns. Show me the money. Who are my partners? Which of these fictional accounts are you suggesting are non-fiction? Or is it time to put that Pizza=Scum puppy to sleep already?
    Let's wrap this up here. For the past however many hours, I've been suggesting the former as a possibility. And yes, I have also wanted Memnon rescanned. But another possibility is that your support for a Memnon-scanning is just a way to convince town that "Oh yeah, can't be scum if he's suggesting that". As in, WIFOM. There's no way to prove this as yet, of course, but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude." BTW, so far this turn you've been arguing for two scans on Tratorix.

    Ok? Arguing it won't get anyone anywhere, as there's nothing to do but wait for the game to progress. And I'm done with it. Don't bring it up and neither will I.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  13. #493
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Let's wrap this up here. For the past however many hours, I've been suggesting the former as a possibility. And yes, I have also wanted Memnon rescanned. But another possibility is that your support for a Memnon-scanning is just a way to convince town that "Oh yeah, can't be scum if he's suggesting that". As in, WIFOM. There's no way to prove this as yet, of course, but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude." BTW, so far this turn you've been arguing for two scans on Tratorix.

    Ok? Arguing it won't get anyone anywhere, as there's nothing to do but wait for the game to progress. And I'm done with it. Don't bring it up and neither will I.
    I just want to wrap this up with my own response, and I'll drop it.

    but your only refutation is "I lack the testicular fortitude."
    Nay nay nay, in fact I've suggested I have the testicular fortitude and I'd do just about anything as scum, and that was not my only refutation.

    The only ever time I've suggested I wouldn't do something is if such a move demonstrates a lack of cerebral fortitude. In order for me to do as you're suggesting, I'd have to be herp-derp in the brain, that's my conclusion anyway.

    So I'm just trying to figure out if you think I'm a herpa-derper, or if you think my cojones are extra meaty. I'm curious. So far, your answer is that the pizza is actually a top sirloin steak. I can live with that, but in the back of my mind I'm worried that people could ever believe I'd try a tactic this self-defeating.

    1) Kill self
    2) Bus John
    3) leave scanned townies alive
    4) Say don't trust the results, making everyone fair game for a lynch
    5) Asking to be scanned N1
    6) Asking for others to double-confirm Memnon as town

    If this is a plan, I must have been on drugs.

    I also struggle to think how I'd sell this plan to my partners.

    Hey guys.... I'm going to kill myself, threaten to lynch and nearly lynch or actually lynch you guys, and ask townies to scan me, and then scan you guys.

    Then, somehow, we will win. Who's with me???


    The defense rests.... in peace.
    Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 09-01-2011 at 05:52.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  14. #494

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Screw you scumbags. Not cool.

  15. #495
    That awesome Mafia guy Member Johhog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    VOTE: johnhughthom It wasn't enough with two names, eh?
    VOTE: Believer In Believer We Believe.
    "Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it." ~Andre Gide

  16. #496
    ridiculously suspicious Member TheLastDays's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Hey guys.... I'm going to kill myself, threaten to lynch and nearly lynch or actually lynch you guys, and ask townies to scan me, and then scan you guys.

    Then, somehow, we will win. Who's with me???
    I'm in! Good that they haven't figured out we were scum this game. I thought it was over when I let myself be lynched over townie JHT but after you did your awesome performance and killed yourself, making them vote the shirt to our scumbuddy Populus we could frame him and now we're on the way to win!

    In all seriousness, confirm the scan on Memnon tonight.
    I hear the voice of the watchmen!

    New Mafia Game: Hunt for The Fox

  17. #497
    The Pony Whisperer Member Believer's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Vote: JHT

    Vote: Believer



    Guys, you're making me blush. :$
    Believer says (11:06):
    Can I have the 3 last replies as a signature?
    ATPG says (11:06):
    No.
    Believer says (11:06):
    Why?
    ATPG says (11:06):
    not org-appropriate
    Believer says (11:07):
    Nothing we say is org-appropriate

  18. #498
    ridiculously suspicious Member TheLastDays's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Visorslash View Post
    Screw you scumbags. Not cool.
    You post too much
    I hear the voice of the watchmen!

    New Mafia Game: Hunt for The Fox

  19. #499
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLastDays View Post
    You post too much
    And you're a Queenslander :-).

    vote: Johnhughthom
    vote: Believer


    for obvious reasons.

  20. #500
    ridiculously suspicious Member TheLastDays's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    see? that's why I hate detective results. Where's the discussion? Everyone goes JHT and Believer "for obvious reasons" and there's no value coming from this round's discussion.

    I dare you all to keep talking. The town doesn't have to fear information and talking, the scum has. Everyone who doesn't post at least 2 posts seperate from his voting post today is scum! I have spoken

    DEATH TO LURKING!
    I hear the voice of the watchmen!

    New Mafia Game: Hunt for The Fox

  21. #501
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [In Play]

    The thing is though that we don't have much additional information to yesterday, so there's only so much that we can still cover in discussion (especially considering ATPG's massive analyses). The only new thing is that the shirt has registered a maifa scan, which looks like it might be legit seeing as JHT was already on our mafia shortlist. Personally I'm using this as evidence to support my radical theory that the shirt works exactly as advertised, but our sample size of scanees (particularly those who are guilty) is still rather small to be drawing concrete conclusions.

  22. #502

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.
    I wouldn't think anything of it. I have a habit of being a night target recently. *shrug*

  23. #503
    ridiculously suspicious Member TheLastDays's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Also, a replacement is usually low on the suspect list. The three confirmed townies, given the discussion about the shirts mechanic, provied much better controversy material. Killing one of them would basically clear them all and the scum don't want to do that at this stage, because, as unreasonable as it might seem, they will want to keep the possibility of those scans being unreliable in the air.
    I hear the voice of the watchmen!

    New Mafia Game: Hunt for The Fox

  24. #504
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Vote: JohnHughThom

    Vote: Believer

    Pizza, you did a good job spotlighitng jht. His posting upsurge confirmed it even before teh scan for me. Well done. Sorry, JHT.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  25. #505
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Vote: JohnHughThom

    Vote: Believer

  26. #506

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

    I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

    Montmercy's Theory:
    When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
    When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
    ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
    Mafia can kill one of their own.
    They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
    Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

    ATPG's Theory:
    When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
    When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
    ATPG - Memnon are innocent
    Johnhugthom is scum
    Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
    Scan chain has not been compromised.
    Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

    I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

    P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

    Total P = product of each night's P's.

    Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
    1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
    2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
    3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
    TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
    There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


    Conclusion:

    At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
    If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
    That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
    If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
    Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

    To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
    To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


    Proposal
    1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
    2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

    I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance
    • For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
      Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
      Confirmed innocents are not being killed.


    Vote: Johnhugthom
    Vote: Yaropolk

  27. #507

    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    We'd actually agreed to stop discussing it, but wow.

    Why don't more people listen to Yaropolk? Yaropolk has my unconditional love, no matter who's right here.

    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  28. #508
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Oh well, at least I didn't get lynched in the deciding round this time. Still at least I get to amuse myself for the rest of the game watching you all try to figure out the game. It's hilarious how far you all are from the truth, even more hilarious it took this long for you to lynch me, despite my making it blatantly obvious I was scum to Double A, and most hilarious of all is the fact the answer to the puzzle of the shirt is staring you all in the face and nobody can see it. We have done well so far my scum buddies, now lets sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.

    Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

  29. #509
    ridiculously suspicious Member TheLastDays's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Quote Originally Posted by johnhughthom View Post
    Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.
    You. Suck. I. Win.

    I hear the voice of the watchmen!

    New Mafia Game: Hunt for The Fox

  30. #510
    mostly harmless Member B-Wing's Avatar
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    Default Re: Three Wolf Moon [Sign-Ups]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    All this excitement has made me prematurely erupt.


    I gotta say, I absolutely love the idea of ATPV being a mafia and having himself murdered to provide the ultimate cover. It's brilliant - probably too far fetched, but infinitely appealing. On that topic, I've always assumed team kills were against mafia rules. Is that not actually the case?

    vote: JHT
    What are the chances his confession is a lie, like Montmorency's and APTV's?

    vote: Believer
    Why not.

    I'm going to have to come up with a volcanic name for Yaropolk after he pulled an ATPG, lurking the whole game and then hitting us with a detailed analysis. At least he contained it in one post.

    To save me the trouble of searching through the thread on my lunch break, would anyone be willing to tally up who JHT has voted for during the game? I'm thinking you could eliminate those players from the mafia choices.

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