C9++ - The Revenge of the Russo [Concluded]

[Johhog]

Zack, considering the post right above you I have to give you an official warning. Please stop posting now, it's the Night phase.

EDIT: Your official warning is retracted, I didn't originally understand the meaning of your post. The last vote count is updated.

In the future though, please PM me about such things if it's during the Night phase.

Sorry.

[Johhog]

The deadline will be extended with another 24 hours because I still haven't found a replacement for johnhughthom. If you know someone who could be interested, contact him. If I don't find a replacement at the new deadline I will be forced to modkill him.

[Johhog]

Earthling replaces johnhughthom. Thanks! Deadline for Night actions is the one in the first post, the Day won't start until I get home from work though.

[Earthling]

GM asked me to confirm that I'm in as a replacement. Here, and read through the rules.

[Johhog]

ELITEKWARMAN8GINGYBREADMENMILK, hero di classico and robbiecon was close friends. This night they was out at a night club in LaSalle. They had a pretty good time, but when they was going home Robbie was hit by something in the neck. He turned around and it was a - grenade. The gang didn't run away in time.

ELITEKWARMAN8GINGYBREADMENMILK, Vanilla Townie, was killed Night 1.
hero di classico, Doctor, was killed Night 1.
robbiecon, Roleblocker, was killed Night 1.

Day 2 starts now. The deadline is

[Diamondeye]

Ouch! So far, we've seen DBT of the setup, and it looks like there might be at least one Vigilante, too. The setup allows for only one mafia kill and one SK, as far as I understand.

For now, I am going to Vote:Zack.

[Diamondeye]

Ouch! So far, we've seen DBT of the setup

And M, Cahoma's an Innocent Child, of course... Hmm.

[Cahoma]

Oh crap. That was bad.

[TheLastDays]

Oo - So I guess the writeup just incorporates three kills into one?

Mafia, SK + Vig?

It's tough because if we don't know who killed who, it's going to be hard to get the scum via kill choices.

[TheLastDays]

But let's start to pressure a bit anways. Vote: Earthling just so the replacement doesn't feel left out

[Earthling]

I think it has to be Vote: Zack. There are reasons to that, but let's see how the wagon rolls.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Vote: Zack


I'll argee!!

[Diamondeye]

Woah, guys! I'm going to step off this wagon before it just goes bonkers and unvote; Vote:ELITEKINGWHATEVERCAKEMANNAME for so enthusiastically joining on third.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Woah, guys! I'm going to step off this wagon before it just goes bonkers and unvote; Vote:ELITEKINGWHATEVERCAKEMANNAME for so enthusiastically joining on third.

Aren't you nice ?

[Earthling]

He's dead.

Given the setup we seem to be hurting no matter what. I'll ask this: Diamondeye, would you agree you shouldn't have posted what you posted at the start of the day unless you're a vanilla townie, or a mafia and Zack is not mafia? Do you see the reasoning there, or do we need to wait for more people to comment and vote.

[Diamondeye]

He's dead.

Facepalm. Then he needs to stop pretending to vote :gripe:

Given the setup we seem to be hurting no matter what. I'll ask this: Diamondeye, would you agree you shouldn't have posted what you posted at the start of the day unless you're a vanilla townie, or a mafia and Zack is not mafia? Do you see the reasoning there, or do we need to wait for more people to comment and vote.

I think I understand what you're asking here, and I think the answer is no, but please elaborate. Which part of the post are you referring to and why would it disclude me from being a pro-town power-role? Or an SK, for that matter? Speaking hypothetically, of course.

[classical_hero]

I was surprised that you did not notice that. More time to concentrate on Capo

[Zack]

Where did the bandwagon on me come from?

*looks at my username*

Oh, right.

[Zack]

The bolded colors in the updates and tallies hurt my eyes, tbh.

Vote: Earthling

Color me curious as to why the night phase couldn't advance until JHT was replaced.

[TheLastDays]

The bolded colors in the updates and tallies hurt my eyes, tbh.

Vote: Earthling

Color me curious as to why the night phase couldn't advance until JHT was replaced.

Exactly my idea.

[Johhog]

I would just like to clarify that it is a modding standard of mine to extend the night when a player needs to get replaced, in order not to give clues about that person's role. Me extending the night phase is in no way indicative of his role and/or alignment.

[Winston Hughes]

If not for their initial votes against one another on day 1, I'd have said Zack and TLD were blatantly working together here. But, on the other hand, maybe that kind of doubt is exactly what those votes were supposed to engender.

vote: Zack

[TheLastDays]

Yes, we're blatantly working together here

I don't think it's Zack and I had no idea anyone else would vote Earthling when I did so, at the beginning of the day phase. I'm applying pressure where I see fit. You, on the other hand, have enough evidence on Zack to be third on his bandwagon? Care to explain?

unvote, vote: Winston Hughes

[TheLastDays]

Never mind, I just realised that with DE's unvote you are only the second vote on Zack. Still, I'd like to hear some reasons for you vote.

[Winston Hughes]

Today's votes on Earthling follow on from you and Zack switching to Montmorency in fairly quick succession yesterday, right after Mont directed his own vote to draw Zack level. At the time, you said that Zack didn't look guilty, though how on earth you could determine that from his posts to that point is completely beyond me.

[Zack]

Unvote, Vote: Oh! TheLastDays!

There you go, Winston.

[B-Wing]

Apparently I am dumb. For those who can make educated guesses as to what possible roles (particularly anti-town roles) are in the game based on those that were revealed last night, could you share with the rest of us?

vote: Cahoma

[Zack]

Voting for the confirmed townie, seriously?

[B-Wing]

unvote; vote: TheLastDays

Totally forgot about that, thank you for the reminder!

[Earthling]

Care to explain?

This also goes for anyone asking what they're missing on figuring out the game setup.

Before I go on, Diamondeye still doesn't make sense to me but he did remind me of one thing I'd missed, a serial killer would be kill immune as in the setup and doesn't fear death at night by mafia/vig, only the lynch, so anyone could be a serial killer and be more aggressive in thread, particularly if they felt the town needed to be rallied to beat the mafia. I don't get his votes but recognize I was withholding points earlier until more people showed up so his response to me is ok, so long as we lynch a mafia today.

On the setup/strategy, here's simply what we know:

With the number of town roles already, the setup would have three mafia.

Three kills last night as far as I can also tell means either mafia, town vig, and SK, or mafia and two vigs. I think two vigs (or vig +1-shot vig) is much less likely, if it's true that means we're just better off and can get lucky even though they failed last night.

There's always the very small chance there are still more town roles, than the Doctor, Blocker, Mason/Child, and Vig we already have, in which case we move further down the setup possibilities, but still 3 mafia and probably still an SK, and too remote a chance to think about.

So 3 Mafia + 1 SK is worst case for the town but also most likely, I think we have to work with that.

Then Cahoma is confirmed Innocent. Any townie knows what they are obviously. That just leaves 6 people so very, very good odds that anybody you could lynch just turns up as a scum. That alone is all that's needed for a wagon on Zack, or you TLD, really, but Zack is the default to me because he got saved from the lynch yesterday and a townie was lynched, so why not guess some of those voters were mafia.

The real question is what happens tonight. Could be 2 or 3 kills, if people target the same victims then fewer, or if someone targets the SK he doesn't die. But what we want for the town is 2 mafia dead before the next day or they're too close to controlling the lynch. 1 mafia, the SK, 3 townies for 5 remaining is still a chance (for everyone, really, but at least town is still in it). That's what we want, hopefully the SK sees the need for at least one mafia to die too because they could straight outvote him too.