High School Drop outs: A problem already going away?

[a completely inoffensive name]

I hear a lot of talk about how 7,000 students a day drop out of school and what a big travesty this is for America. No doubt we really shouldn't be having a ton of drop outs in our society. But every time this gets brought up I always ask myself:

A. What proportion of people are just genuinely duds who fail at life? Is that close to the proportion of people who drop out?
B. What has been the long term trend of drop out rates? Has it been high for a while?

I don't know the answer to A, but I did find out the answer to B. Actually, drop out rates have decreased dramatically since the 1980s. And this isn't a fluke of one or two socioeconomic rich ethnic groups getting their stuff together with PTA meetings but instead in every ethnic group you see a similar decline over the years, especially in the most current years.

This chart goes up to 2009: http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=16

I have to say that going from 14% average to ~8% is great news. How is our current situation "a tragedy" when just twenty years ago you had an additional 6 out of every 100 kids dropping out.

Is it still a tragedy to worry about when the long term trend over numerous administrations shows uninterrupted decline?

EDIT: Woah, I just pulled this up (PDF warning): http://www.childtrendsdatabank.org/pdf/1_PDF.pdf

Here is the relevant part:

Trends Dropout rates of young people ages 16 to 24 in the civilian, non-institutionalized
population gradually declined between 1972 and 2005, from 15 percent to a low of 9 in
2005. (See Table 2) In this indicator, dropouts are defined as individuals ages 16 to 24
who are not enrolled in and have not completed high school. In 1972, the dropout rate
among non-Hispanic blacks was 21 percent, 12 percent among non-Hispanic whites, and
34 percent for Hispanic youth. These rates have since declined substantially for each
group. The dropout rate for non-Hispanic black youth reached an historic low of 11
percent in 2005. (See Figure 1) This drop is at least in part related to increased
incarceration rates among black male high school dropouts, which more than doubled
between 1980 and 1999, thus removing them from the civilian non-institutionalized
population on which these estimates are based. Rates among Hispanic youth have
declined in last few years from 30 percent in 1998 to 23 percent in 2005.

So I guess it is still a tragedy when the drop outs are disappearing from the school stats and are appearing the criminal stats.

[HoreTore]

The answer?

Offer high school education(as well as all other education) in prisons.

[Zim]

We actually have a GED program at the jail in my county. Despite the rather short jail stays most inmates get we get a fair amount of inmates passing the test. I'd be curious whether prisons in the state have similar programs for high school or college classes. Given the state's rather dire financial situation I'm not optimistic...

Interesting info ACIN. I've heard the number of dropouts given as alarming figures before but never saw it put into a wider perspective. I also wonder if they include students that go on to get GEDs while still teenagers as dropouts?

The answer?

Offer high school education(as well as all other education) in prisons.

[Tellos Athenaios]

It's a problem because at age 16 they have about zero skills in live, but plenty of ability to cause trouble. They think they know their stuff when in fact they don't anything relevant. They're lucky if they can get a low paying tedious job, but few jobs are that easy to come by and offer you the financial support to live on your own should you wish/need/ to later.

This need for qualifications is steadily increasing. I mean 80 years ago the local drop out could make become a factory worker, next to no skills were required. By contrast all sorts of bottom rung coffee lady positions require a degree or certifications in something, now.

[Hax]

I was a high school drop-out as well. Thankfully, I still managed to go to university at a relatively normal age (eightteen). It's a sizeable problem in the Netherlands as well.

[Samurai Waki]

I was a high school drop-out as well. Thankfully, I still managed to go to university at a relatively normal age (eightteen). It's a sizeable problem in the Netherlands as well.

My hat's off to you, Hax! It's good to see you made it to a point that many other drop-outs never see.

My Sister dropped out as well, she now owns a quite successful small business.

[Major Robert Dump]

I gots my GED you cans too