A History of Violence [Concluded]

[Jarema]

in in

[Chaotix]

I'll take a reserve spot, if that's alright.

[Visor]

Sure. Added.

[DaveShack]

Innage

[Tuuvi]

Decided I wanna give mafia games a shot. I'm in.

[Visor]

Another thing to note, in regards to your character/role. Say Player X was a lurker and didn't post very often and was killed at night or lynched, then the writeup will reflect on Player X. The lurking has been terrible lately.

Understand?

[edse]

Another thing to note, in regards to your character/role. Say Player X was a lurker and didn't post very often and was killed at night or lynched, then the writeup will reflect on Player X. The lurking has been terrible lately.

Understand?

No. In.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Moving onto DaveShack.

Innage

Pregame.

Hmm, 2nd day and it's still basically chaos. I'll fall back on the classic Vote: Salmonsoil

Votes after almost everyone else has already voted, putting the tally thusly.

Tally:
Kage (ATPG)
Seon x 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon x 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split x 3 (Kagemusha, Nightbringer, Jarema)
Jarrema (Riedquat)
Atheotes (Arjos)
Nightbringer x 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG (Tuuvi)
Daveshack (Salmon)

This puts forward an alternative to Split, who ends up being murdered and is therefore a townie. Unfortunate that it was SalmonSoil, who is about as lock a townie as a lynchee can get due to the previous round.

What is the negative? Nothing striking, but it could indicate a desire to remove someone who voted for you without clearing them as townie, and also, without adding to the Split wagon, which could look scummier.

As such, it's possibly a very smart move by a scum. No firm indication whether it's the innocent or guilty option.

Vote: Seon this case seems better than the others.

I never really liked the Seon case, he felt like such an easy target.

I voted for him, sure. I even OMGUS voted him, but when I voted him it wasn't a wagon, and there was no case, and I sure as hell didn't do it for the reasons given in the case. The case was added later, by others, who hopped onto my vote.

If Arjos was guilty, and Dave is guilty, that could explain this tally:

Tally:
2 Arjos (Seon, Salmonsoil)
3 Seon (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
2 Nightbringer (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)

Which is how Seon got lynched, Arjos edged out Seon, and Dave is still alive.

That's possible negative points for Arjos, a lynchee who was never proven innocent, and Dave, who was also not proven innocent yet.

One could suggest me and Arjos, which meant I bussed him pretty hardcore. Which I can accept as an option, even though I know it's not what happened. We're looking for possible mafia pairs in the voting record, and if there is a round where the votes are close and it's possible the mafia voted together, this round is still a very real possibility.


This notion I'd like to explore more, because right after this, I made the lynching case FOR Arjos.

This is how they both reacted:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053434135

Arjos' immediate reaction.

In the end, can't really say whether you lurked or not...
Monty lately has a thing about getting lynched on day 1 as mafia and he wants you dead, but gah...

Vote: DaveShack

Of all people, he voted only twice in intervals to avoid the 3 in a row rule and with the following reasons: there's still chaos and this is better than the other case...
Among all, he's the one striking me as the "nothing here, vote elsewhere"...

Possible he senses that he's going down, immediately distances himself from DaveShack.

Vote: Arjos

Self-preservation, and the pizza dude's analysis makes sense.

DaveShack responds to the distancing maneuver in the expected way: join in on destroying Arjos. Obviously they can't be scum buddies now, right?

Wait, am I? Umm, nope. Not saying a lot -- check. Plain vanilla me, as usual.

That doesn't sound the least bit off to me.

I would have been awake, but had to get up a bit earlier today than usual so went to sleep earlier.

I overlooked a partnership option. If it ends up being the partnership and mafia wins, then I might have let them off the hook.

Dave's big analytical contribution to the game:

Jarema and SalmonSoil are mafia together. This is what he's referring to.

This is also something several dead folks have suggested, and I suggested already. Feels a bit late to the party.

Now, in my mind, this partnership has been rendered impossible by the events of the previous round. but Dave was on the wagon in agreement with it's likelihood of being true. I pointed out how it's probably completely false.

Well, Jarema + SalmonSoil would be the one remaining. I'm obviously leaving out me + somebody, but I always do that since I'm innocent. Though looking at other recent endgames, maybe I should do more to prove it's not me.

I'd agree with you on that.

You and most people are deliberately avoiding the "who is my mafia partner" discussion. Except I cheekily welcomed it earlier on this game.

But this comment feels a bit self-conscious.

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053435524

Here, Dave is still under absolutely no real pressure and is able to freely and more aggressively attack some of the remaining suspects on the final rounds of the game, with impunity.

Which is what he should do if he's scum. Or if he's townie...

We'll see in a bit which way it goes. First time I've been the swing vote at such an important point and I really don't know if I'm right or wrong.

I get a slight ping off this post due to what I've noticed about the way mafia "act" as townies... instead of trying to convey emotion or ignorance, they simply state it for the record like a bad actor.

"I am angry right now. Look at my angry smiley faces I'm posting."

"I have no idea who is guilty."

That sort of thing. There's a hint of that here.


Overall-

DaveShack is a very experienced mafia player who hails from another forum. While you can get scummy leans on posts from virtually any post in a game from any player if you try hard enough, not much Dave has done provokes a very strong "gosh that's scummy" reaction from me.

Which might be the whole point behind his play. If I'm a damned good mafia player I would do a lot of what DaveShack has done to avoid certain tells.

If looked at through goggles which color him completely guilty, ignoring the lack of scum tells, you could see a lot of what his strategy is, you might even assume he was mafia with Arjos. That would explain a lot of his interaction with Arjos, and a lot about where we stand right now. I, for example, haven't found Dave that scummy and I have found lots of others scummy. That would explain my continued existence.

There's a lot that can be found if you force yourself to view him as guilty and look at all evidence as incriminating. But do I really think he's guilty?

If he is, he deserves the win. He's certainly outplayed us. Jarema still pings me a lot harder than Dave does.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Analysis of Lazy will take longer due to the fact that he's posted three times more than the others.

I may have to just cut out some of the posts that I feel are unrelated to the game itself and have no lean either way.

[LazyMcCrow]

Analysis of Lazy will take longer due to the fact that he's posted three times more than the others.

I may have to just cut out some of the posts that I feel are unrelated to the game itself and have no lean either way.

Ok cool - I'll do you then. Woo! Go Team!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Starting with Jarema, since that is the direction the murdered dead are pointing in. Plus I tried to lynch him, and perhaps this will illustrate what I'm seeing.

in in

Pregame.

Vote: Arjos
first thought is always the best

First vote was on Arjos, an eventual lynchee.

Could you post a timer? It is easier to understand when day/night ends

Splitpersonality.
Throwing almost random comments and not going after own thoughts

Split, another lynchee.

I was second voting for him...
do not know why host put my name last in the description, I believe Nightbringer was last there

Yeah!
vote: Riedquat

Riedquat, another lynchee.

Whatt????

Click and read the context, this post pings a bit, in the overacting category.

ok
I do not have enough psychic energy left to think now.
As a placeholder vote, that will stay if I have no better idea, vote: Arjos

Jarema joins my accusation on Arjos, another lynchee. So far, he has not voted for anyone who has gotten murdered, which is a bit odd.

???

ANyway, I am vote: ATPG

This is in reaction to murdered person pointing the finger at him. And then he votes for me, no explanation.

I like your analysis, ATPG.
TBH, I did not have any real reason for voting for you. It was just a feeling that something is wrong with your gameplay.
Anyway, now I am torn between voting for Salmon and voting for Lazy.
Vote: LazyMcCrow, as this wagon has a chance of standing and hitting scum

On the spot, backs off of voting for me.
Doesn't say what caused his suspicion on me.
Says he's torn between the current candidates, doesn't give a real reason to vote for either one except that Lazy's lynch is more likely to succeed, therefore he's the one who should be lynched.

Jarema's play has been extremely consistent all game long- brief posts, and whoever he votes for usually ends up dead via the lynch, and hasn't voted for a murdered party yet. This could indicate a link between the murders and the lynches; specifically that the people who get murdered are not folks he's trying to get killed via the lynch. That further suggests a strategy of lynching folks that can be lynched, and murdering folks that he's got no direct connection to.

That would be the Mafia ESP theory.

Explanation of Mafia ESP theory:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In a game with a large number of rounds, sometimes the mafia will make a certain kind of mistake that can be directly observed by statistical analysis.

Players A through M begin the game, player C is mafia.

Player C's strategy is not to vote for folks he intends to murder, so the proven-innocent parties will not find him as suspicious.

Other players who are townie have no access to murder as a method of dispatching their foes, and have no knowledge of who is going to be murdered.

Over time, most players will vote for murdered parties, even make big attempts to lynch said foes. Sometimes they will engage in a bitter rivalry wherein one of them is murdered, pointing suspicion at the other. In the endgame, folks may be forced to work with people they've been strongly accusing all game, just to lynch the actual mafia. Meanwhile, the mafia has removed all elements of teamwork from the townie team by breaking up obvious threats to their existence, removing folks who are working together, and leaving folks who are at each other's throats, while looking innocent themselves.

This causes the game to get progressively harder for the town, because for example, suppose that next round, Lazy and myself are the only remaining townies. But, suspicion and friction causes us not to work as well together, whereas let's say for example DaveShack is the mafia and has no real conflict with myself or Lazy. The game history works against the town in that example, and since in that example Dave controls the murders, he's also caused it all to happen and left people alive who aren't functioning well together as a team and also don't suspect him.

These are just examples, but the end result is twofold:

On the town side: Folks who have been trying to kill each other, even though they're teammates, are left alive. They've also got a history of voting for each other and failing to succeed, and voting for folks who get murdered, because they've got no idea who is guilty or not and who will be alive at the endgame.

On the mafia side: The scumbag emerges mostly unscathed, but with a detectable pattern in their votes. They didn't vote for folks they ended up murdering, causing a direct correlation between their votes and the murders themselves, in that they do not overlap. Furthermore, the mafia ends up alone with townies they've never really voted for, or townies they feel they can eventually lynch anyway.

What is being observed, is a difference between the near-random votes of the town and the calculated strategy of a mafioso. That causes a player in particular to appear to have psychic powers, being able to predict who will die and who will not die.

Why it's relevant here- I see such a pattern emerging from Jarema's votes. I also see that he seems to be particularly unconcerned by who gets lynched in the first place, not moving his vote around much, and that he seems to have no sense of urgency regarding the late rounds of the game, as his contributions to the discussion and depth of his reasoning for voting people have not increased in the slightest.

This is all entirely unfair to Jarema if he's innocent, because this is all circumstantial and coincidental. And if it is, you'd be unable to tell the difference, because it's absolutely identical to the phenomenon I'm referring to.

To give Jarema a fair shake, you'd also have to analyze the other three. But for now, my suspicion on Jarema is still present from the previous round.