A History of Violence [Concluded]

[Splitpersonality]

Why aren't you all voting for this guy here?

I'm not even in the game yet and I can tell he's guilty...

But I'm always guilty, even when I'm town. So they should exhaust all other avenues first.

EDIT:

That made a lot more sense as a joke in my mind... I think... I think I should get some sleep...

[Jarema]

Splitpersonality.
Throwing almost random comments and not going after own thoughts

[SalmonSoil]

Vote: Daveshack

[DaveShack]

Thanks to Nightbringer for the early round tally summary, which I shamelessly copied.

Day 1:
Monty: 2 (ATPG, Tuuvi)
ATPG: 1 (split)
Nightbringer: 1 (Monty)
White Eyes: 1 (Lazy)
Lewwyn: 1 (Salmonsoil)
Split: 1 (Arjos)
Lazy: 2 (Bsmith, Nightbringer)
Atheotes: 1 (Riedquat)
Salmonsoil: 1 (Lewwyn)
Arjos: 1 (Jarrema)


Day 2:
Tally:
Kage: 1 (ATPG)
Seon: 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon: 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split: 3 (Kagemusha, Jarema, Nightbringer)
Jarrema: 1 (Riedquat)
Atheotes: 1 (Arjos)
Nightbringer: 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG: 1 (Tuuvi)
Daveshack: 1 (Salmon)


Day 3:
White_Eyes:D: 4 (edse, Arjos, atheotes, LazyMcCrow)
Riedquat: 4 (Seon, SalmonSoil, Jarema, White_Eyes:D)
Nightbringer: 1 (Riedquat)
atheotes: 1 (Nightbringer)


Day 4:
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Kagemusha: 3 (Arjos, Seon, atheotos)


Day 5:

Tally:
Arjos: 2 (Seon, Salmonsoil)
Seon: 3 (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)


Currently:
Alive 8/17:
1. SalmonSoil
2. LazyMcCrow
4. Arjos
7. Nightbringer
8. Jarrema
9. DaveShack
12. Askthepizzaguy
16. BSmith

Dead 8/17:
5. Monty: Lynched Day 1
15. Lewwyn: Killed Night 1
14. Splitpersonality: Lynched Day 2
10. Tuuvi: Killed Night 2
3. Riedquat: Lynched Day 3
13. White_Eyes:D: Killed Night 3
11. Kagemusha: Lynched Day 4
6. Atheotes: Killed Night 4
17. Seon: Lynched Day 5

Night 5 -- Nightbringer killed

Day 6:
Arjos lynched
Arjos - Pizza, Jarema, DaveShack
DaveShack - Arjos
ATPG - Salmon, Lazy

Night 6:
BSMith killed

Day 7:
Salmon - ATPG, Lazy
Lazy - Salmon, DaveShack
ATPG - Jarema

Salmon lynched

Night 7: Lazy killed

Final analysis:

Jarema vs Dave+ATPG+Lazy : no win situation
Dave vs ATPG+Lazy+Jarema : can kill either Lazy or ATPG and Jarema will vote for the other
ATPG vs Dave+Lazy+Jarema : kill Lazy, Dave certain to vote for Jarema. Kill Jarema, Dave possible vote for Lazy

Potential buddies: Monty, Split, Riedquat, Kagemusha, Seon, Arjos, Salmon
ATPG: Y, N, N, N, Y, Y, Y
Jarema: N, Y, Y, N, N, Y, N
Dave: N, N, N, N, Y, Y, N

Salmon:
ATPG couldn't be bussing Salmon, because lynching Lazy wins the game if two mafia alive
Jarema could have made a true mistake, and Salmon + Jarema would still be possible.
I almost changed my vote to him, but almost doesn't count. Could be partner.

Arjos:
They both voted for Arjos, and the very first vote in a phase is far too risky. Arjos is not the partner.
Pizza gets a possible scumtell for leading off the wagon since Arjos seems to be innocent
Dave 3rd vote, could be a bus but there was an alternative, not likely

Seon:
ATPG votes first again. It's a OMGUS and could pass for such.
Jarema didn't vote, or even post this round from the looks of it.
Dave voted

Kagemusha:
Neither one voted in the round but not likely to be ATPG's partner. Could be Jarema's.
Dave missed vote, could be partner

Riedquat:
Jarema Voted 3rd, but there was a clear alternative in White_eyes:D Not likely to be partner
ATPG did not vote in the round
Dave missed vote, could be partner

Split:
Jarema voted 2nd, unlikely partner
ATPG voted for Kagemusha, possible very safe bus depending on where in round -- nope, 1st vote again
Dave voted with split against Salmon. Unlikely for partners to vote together this early with such low totals.

Monty:
ATPG voted first again. Not partner
Jarema voted for Arjos. Could be partner.
Dave voted for someone else Could be partner.

Jarema possible partners: Monty, Kagemusha, Seon, Salmon (if a huge mistake was made)
ATPG possible partners: Split, Riedquat, Kagemusha (extremely risky day2, possible bus by not saving)
Dave possible partners: Monty, Riedquat, Kagemusha, Salmon

I still assert I'm townie, of course. If I were mafia, Riedquat would be the most likely partner, as I wouldn't make the mistake of voting with my partner Split on round 2, I could have saved Kagemusha, and Salmon was going down if he won the duel.

For Jarema, Seon sticks out as a likely partner. Salmon is a possibility if the failure to unvote was an honest mistake.

For ATPG, either Split or Riedquat are possibles. ATPG stands out as having been the very first to vote in many rounds. I called him out on the "mafia playing as super-townie" role and he admitted that this is one way he plays.

Still a hard choice. Comments?

[Nightbringer]

Good analysis dave. I have been thinking things over today and am feeling a bit more suspicious of ATPG than I had before. If you look at his round to round accusations, for the last few rounds he has made a strong case against a different person each round, and has been throwing accusations all over the place. I feel like this might have helped lead to a state of affairs where the town is having a hard time working together, as it has.

I can believe that ATPG might pull something like this off as mafia. Going all in and throwing out cases on people as much as possible in order to overwhelm everyone with targets. What do you guys think?

[LazyMcCrow]

Good analysis dave. I have been thinking things over today and am feeling a bit more suspicious of ATPG than I had before. If you look at his round to round accusations, for the last few rounds he has made a strong case against a different person each round, and has been throwing accusations all over the place. I feel like this might have helped lead to a state of affairs where the town is having a hard time working together, as it has.

I can believe that ATPG might pull something like this off as mafia. Going all in and throwing out cases on people as much as possible in order to overwhelm everyone with targets. What do you guys think?

Town thought it was game over yesterday with two mafia left. I was allowed to kill SalmonSoil (the other scum) because I got lucky / it kept the game going. The only person who has been cranking the activity up because it was still all to play for is ATPG - who is your scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can believe that ATPG might pull something like this off as mafia. Going all in and throwing out cases on people as much as possible in order to overwhelm everyone with targets. What do you guys think?

I think your odds of hitting scum will improve if you discard the tempting Pizzaguy as an option.

I didn't wait until this final day round to post an analysis or my suspects, because I have not been trying to win on the final round of the game, I've been trying to lynch the scum before this round, giving reasons why people are or are not townie, and doing my best to organize some sort of final resistance.

It is not at all advantageous to me to start pointing fingers at anyone last night where the scum can nightkill my top suspect and prove me wrong immediately. I have better strategic sense than that if my goal is to stay alive. My goal hasn't been to stay alive, it has been to correctly lynch someone.

Serious analysis of my play will lead you to the correct conclusion.

[Askthepizzaguy]

My analysis of the game from last night still stands. I would like to know where Dave and Jarema stand on who their top suspect is, before I place my final verdict.

Jarema, you're still my lead suspect. Why is Dave scum?

Dave, if it is not Jarema it is you. Why is Jarema scum?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Triple post-

Feel free to ask me the same question, however I'll point out that I've already answered it with my analysis of the game. I ask you both to do the same.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Still nothing.

All right, will go over this one one more time.

Thanks to Nightbringer for the early round tally summary, which I shamelessly copied.

Day 1:
Monty: 2 (ATPG, Tuuvi)
ATPG: 1 (split)
Nightbringer: 1 (Monty)
White Eyes: 1 (Lazy)
Lewwyn: 1 (Salmonsoil)
Split: 1 (Arjos)
Lazy: 2 (Bsmith, Nightbringer)
Atheotes: 1 (Riedquat)
Salmonsoil: 1 (Lewwyn)
Arjos: 1 (Jarrema)

D1 Jarema votes, Dave does not.

Jarema's vote is a one-off and does not decide between the two candidates.

Day 2:
Tally:
Kage: 1 (ATPG)
Seon: 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon: 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split: 3 (Kagemusha, Jarema, Nightbringer)
Jarrema: 1 (Riedquat)
Atheotes: 1 (Arjos)
Nightbringer: 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG: 1 (Tuuvi)
Daveshack: 1 (Salmon)

D2, they both vote.

Jarema lynches Split over Seon or Nightbringer or SalmonSoil, possibly indicating a preference/partnership since this vote is more decisive.
DaveShack votes Salmon.

Day 3:
White_Eyes:D: 4 (edse, Arjos, atheotes, LazyMcCrow)
Riedquat: 4 (Seon, SalmonSoil, Jarema, White_Eyes:D)
Nightbringer: 1 (Riedquat)
atheotes: 1 (Nightbringer)

D3, Dave doesn't vote, Jarema ties Riedquat with W_E.

If Dave were guilty it would be unlikely that Riedquat would be.

Day 4:
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)
Kagemusha: 3 (Arjos, Seon, atheotos)

D4, neither Dave, nor Jarema, nor even myself, votes.

Kagemusha is lynched by one vote. NB was murdered, nobody remaining reacts to Kage's death. Kagemusha is likely innocent and the mafia had no reaction to his death.

Day 5:

Tally:
Arjos: 2 (Seon, Salmonsoil)
Seon: 3 (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
Nightbringer: 2 (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)

D5, Dave puts the lynch to Seon. Jarema has no opinion.

So far, Jarema's only truly decisive opinion has been the D2 lynch over Seon or Nightbringer or SalmonSoil.

Salmon seems innocent, NB is proven so.

It is possible, therefore, that Dave and myself actually lynched the scum on this day. It's possible Jarema did not want to spare Seon twice, as that creates a voting pattern.

Day 6:
Arjos - Pizza, Jarema, DaveShack
DaveShack - Arjos
ATPG - Salmon, Lazy

D6- also possible that Arjos was guilty, distancing from Dave. However, Dave could have just lynched me instead, rendering this highly unlikely.

I generally rule out Arjos as mafia here. The guilty party did indeed want him dead.

Day 7:
Salmon - ATPG, Lazy
Lazy - Salmon, DaveShack
ATPG - Jarema

Salmon lynched

Neither Lazy nor Salmon was guilty. However, myself and Dave seem to be attempting to lynch one of them.

Jarema on the other hand is indecisive.


My final analysis of the game on DaveShack and Jarema-

1) Jarema's vote only makes a difference in the outcome on the following rounds: Day 2 and Day 6. D2 was Split, D6 was Arjos. Arjos seems unlikely to be mafia. Possible that Split was mafia, but neither myself nor DaveShack made any attempt to tie the vote and make him survive, and I don't believe Jarema was bussing. As such, I believe that Jarema did not lynch any mafia this game.

2) DaveShack decides Seon, Arjos, and Lazy. If DaveShack is guilty, none of those are likely to be mafia. Lazy is not mafia, and Arjos is unlikely to be mafia at all. However, Seon was never ruled out as mafia.

As for myself, I decided on Monty, Seon, Arjos, and Salmon for the lynch. Only Arjos seems clear, so it's very likely I lynched the mafia.

I do not believe it was SalmonSoil, and I do not believe it was Arjos. Monty has been especially terrible this game, but I don't know if that makes him mafia. Plus, if I lynched Monty day 1 and he was guilty, why didn't I get murdered soon after?

That leads me back to Seon.

DaveShack and I lynched Seon, and Seon appears most likely to have been the guilty party we successfully lynched.

Since he's voting incorrectly now, and lynched no scums...

In the final analysis, Jarema is the weakest link. Good-bye.



Vote: Jarema

[Askthepizzaguy]

Working on the assumption Seon is guilty, it's worth a double-check as to his contributions to the game as well.

Easy enough, as he only has five posts.