Time Travelers Timewarp [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

I did some calculations to see if we can kill the mafia just by sweeping through as many possibilities as possible:

Firstly, if there are two mafia there are 136 different possible combinations of players who could be mafia. If there are 3 there are 680 and if there are 4 there are 2380.
Assuming the worst possible circumstances following my plan (only tie-voting 2 people each day, excluding today where we seem to be ready to tie-vote 5), we will have all the possible combinations of players available to us by day 6 (assuming two mafia), if we tie-vote 3 people each day (assuming 5 today), we will have all the possible combinations of 2 mafia by day 4 (except 1, which is too small a chance to be of concern), all the possible combinations of 3 mafia by day 6 and all the possible combinations of 4 by day 7. This all assumes 1 night kill for the entire mafia (in which case we will survive to day 7), and that no paradoxes occur (and I believe one is likely to at some point). This also assumes no other power roles.
These numbers are all overestimates however, because the nature of this game means that the combinations of live/dead players will be closely related to individual player action and not pure chance. Thus we will have to both scum hunt and gain near tie-votes every round.

o

Depends on town's ability not to repeat players in the ties.Your maths are a bit useless, as they can't be applied to anything. Not only that, but they have it the other way around.

In response to Monty, who asked why a near tie-vote would give over half of players power over that days outcome; Imagine A, B and C all vote for X, whilst X and Y vote for A. X is lynched. After that day A, B and C will have the power to change the outcome of that days lynch by changing their vote from X to A, whereas X and Y do not have the same power because changing their vote to X will not change the outcome. This can be overcome by working with other players, but that isn't as powerful as being able to change the vote without help.

What? When did I ask this? I think you've misread my posts.

Now onto scum hunting. I believe Monty is scum because he didn't know that everyone had time traveling powers, if he had got the town role pm and read it then he would have been told that he has time traveling powers and would probably have assumed that everyone else who is town also did. So either he is guilty, or a power role (if they exist).
The only other alternatives are that either he didn't notice his pm and assumed he was town or he skimmed his pm, which seems unlikely

Hm, no, that's a horrible thing to assume. Why would anyone assume that? The reason I should have known that everyone has this power is because it says so in the OP.

I believe this is a pretty poor plan because it muddles absolutely everything and tells us absolutely nothing. If we tie multiple people a day, we practically guarantee a "future" change in the lynch. What exactly is the benefit in this?

[seireikhaan]

Vote: SalmonSoil

Hunchity hunch.

[DaveShack]

When does this day end? The "starting now" post didn't say.

Big mistake trying to digest that right before bed. I tend towards having lucid problem-solving dreams, my subconscious will be going nuts trying to find out what voting pattern is needed to make it easier to find the mafia.

[CountArach]

I believe this is a pretty poor plan because it muddles absolutely everything and tells us absolutely nothing. If we tie multiple people a day, we practically guarantee a "future" change in the lynch. What exactly is the benefit in this?

But the ability to change things is our biggest advantage.

[Montmorency]

It's not a collective ability, it is the individual ability of each and every player.

That means Mafia can change the vote as easily as a townie.

Or would you place yourself at the head of things here? "Everyone, change your vote to X tonight".

You believe these orders will be followed without question?

[Ishmael]

It's not a collective ability, it is the individual ability of each and every player.

That means Mafia can change the vote as easily as a townie.

Or would you place yourself at the head of things here? "Everyone, change your vote to X tonight".

You believe these orders will be followed without question?

I would encourage people to go nuts and change the vote however they like. As long as there is a change in the lynch it gives the town more information, whether the change is initiated by a mafioso or a townie. With a little deductive work we should be able to figure out exactly how things have changed each day (based on who's come back to life and/or died), and that should hopefully allow us to catch the mafia by determining when nightkills are changed and why. In fact, I would go so far as to say that having everybody do their own thing is better, as the randomness will help foil any attempts by the scum to derail things. The one thing the town does have to work together in, however, is keeping the lynches tight - ideally a single changed vote should be enough to change the lynch on any particular day phase.

[Montmorency]

I would encourage people to go nuts and change the vote however they like. As long as there is a change in the lynch it gives the town more information, whether the change is initiated by a mafioso or a townie. With a little deductive work we should be able to figure out exactly how things have changed each day (based on who's come back to life and/or died), and that should hopefully allow us to catch the mafia by determining when nightkills are changed and why. In fact, I would go so far as to say that having everybody do their own thing is better, as the randomness will help foil any attempts by the scum to derail things. The one thing the town does have to work together in, however, is keeping the lynches tight - ideally a single changed vote should be enough to change the lynch on any particular day phase.

If there is more than 1 scum, night kills should never change. One vote will not be enough, if more than a dozen individuals are switching around.

Say today we have 5 candidates with 2 votes each. Perhaps someone else entirely (a sixth!) will wind up being lynched as a result of the cumulative changes.

[Ishmael]

If there is more than 1 scum, night kills should never change.

...I have managed to completely overlook this point. Okay, time to rethink things.

[Montmorency]

Whatever the case, it is clear that things will only get more convoluted as times goes on. If the D1 lynch is changed after tonight, or the D2 lynch after N2, etc...

then all analysis goes down the toilet.

But then again, it would on the flipside be increasingly difficult to effect such a change. Since vote tallies will not be updated based on changes (the only indication is a remix of the...)....

[SalmonSoil]

I must say the town PM was pretty ambiguous as to whether or not it was a town PM which makes me wonder if you yourself have read it.

I assume quoting the role PM's is allowed right? "See the time police destroyed" is pretty unambiguous, I'm now wondering whether you received a town PM. Again, I can see how the abilities info would be missed if the PM was skimmed. I'm not saying this evidence against Monty is conclusive, but it's day one, I don't expect conclusive evidence for a day one lynch.

o

Depends on town's ability not to repeat players in the ties.Your maths are a bit useless, as they can't be applied to anything. Not only that, but they have it the other way around.

This does depend on town working together, yeah. Yes maths can't be applied perfectly, because they ignore so much, but I think they indicate pretty good chances if there are only two mafia, and remember this method will be combined with scum hunting.

What? When did I ask this? I think you've misread my posts.

Why do you say over half, by the way?

I assumed you were asking about why I stated that a near tie-vote gives over half of the players power over that days lynch. Sorry if I misinterpreted.

Hm, no, that's a horrible thing to assume. Why would anyone assume that? The reason I should have known that everyone has this power is because it says so in the OP.

Hmm, point taken. I probably just took my knowledge from the OP and unconsciously applied it to my PM.

I believe this is a pretty poor plan because it muddles absolutely everything and tells us absolutely nothing. If we tie multiple people a day, we practically guarantee a "future" change in the lynch. What exactly is the benefit in this?

The goal of this plan isn't to find the mafia, the goal is to make it easier to lynch them. Assuming only one mafia kill per night and no serial killer it will take the Mafia 7 days to win if neither die. In a standard game this means 7 lynches to find the mafia, but in this game using this plan we can lynch anyone at any time, essentially giving us hundreds of possible lynch combinations to choose from. I'm not saying we just roll the dice to test every possible combination of lynches, what I intend is something more like this, say on day 4 I think that A and B are guilty A was almost lynched on day 2 and B was almost lynched on day 3. If I can convince a small number of other people to work with me, we can have A and B lynched right away, without needing to gain a majority vote. if we don't win, then we were wrong and the mistake can be remedied.

Placing people several votes away from resurrection benefits mafia as the person is more likely to be innocent than guilty. If by some chance we do become incredibly certain that some one is mafia there is no reason we can't just wagon them out of reach of time travel, and then resume the tie vote plan next turn.

Also you say this plan wont tell us anything, but this day one has been more serious than most day ones are. I'm sure the mafia will still be uneasy about being one of the suspects in a tie-vote, as it makes it easier to lynch them. I do think the tie vote this round is a bit ridiculous, I think 3 or 4 suspects is the best balance as it will place more pressure on mafia.

[Montmorency]

That ignores the law of unintended consequences.

What if the unlynched players cast Potential Votes such that a mafioso is unlynched with their implementation, or something like that?

It is very important to note two things:

1. There is no way to tell if 1 to x-1 mafiosi have been lynched, x being the total # of Mafiosi. This makes it even easier to accidentally rescue scum.
2. There are no second chances. You only get to change your vote on a particular day once. Choose wisely.