For my first FOTS campaign I chose the Jozai, and it was a real struggle until I managed to conquer nearly all of the north east. I didn't really have any idea what I was doing either. Had no idea about the 10 province RD event trigger.
Initially, I took out the neighbours, whom you start at war with, then the clan in Edo decided they didn't like me, and I found out how much better levy spears were in hand to hand than the levy gun units (can't remember exact names, haven't played for a month!). Let the guns climb the walls and they get massacred by the spears.
So a few turns after, with feeble income and development, the 2 clans to the north (both Imperial, one of them took out the Aizu) declared on me. After that it was a slow struggle to gradually conquer the northern provinces, while making sure the Nagaoka, who were, for the first half of the game, far more developed, prosperous and powerful, stayed neutral.
It wasn't until I had the whole north, except for a vassal at the far north east, that I was finally at peace and had some time to build up my provinces. Before that, my income was less than 2k, and the level of development was woeful.
The clan ability to replenish in enemy territory (except winter) did come in handy especially in the large northern provinces, and even allowed single unit armies to roam enemy lands by themselves, burning buildings.
Tell you what though, a good year or so of peace meant that I had an income of 8k, far more technology and was at development level 4.
Meanwhile, the Choshu had chomped up nearly everything in western Honshu and the Obama had most of the central provinces. I was certain that the Obama would be the Shogunal vanguard as until recently they were streets ahead of me. But somehow I ended up being the Vanguard - I didn't even notice for a season or so.
Eventually I was raking in nearly 20k but had a look at the campaign objectives and decided that I needed to take some provinces from the Imperials.
I sent my ninja and Shinsengumi out to cause trouble and the Choshu lost many provinces to rebellion, which the Obama swallowed up. After that, the Choshu were goners, it was just a matter of time.
So I got a few ironclads and trained the best troops and landed in Shikoku and Kyushu.
And I haven't had time to touch the game since!
So in summary,
I'd suggest not expanding so far to the north, as your lines of supply are far too stretched, and if a clan closer to Edo attacks you with your army far away up north, you're in trouble.
Try and stop expanding after maybe 5 provinces to give you time to build up your economy and development - though that's not always possible. That way you give yourself a better base to push towards 10 provinces with a better economy and tech.
After RD, since you're likely sitting on Edo, all the Imperials will likely be sending fleets to bombard and then land invasion forces to Edo and surrounds. I found that after building a French trading thing at Edo they stopped trying to land in the bay, and instead went around to the 2 provinces to the east. Just half garrison those castles with mostly good melee troops and use the free garrison units to see off the enemy.
However, it's likely that you will at least be shielded from land invasions so you can concentrate on your navy and invasion plans.
Once you're at RD peace with all your fellow neighbourhood Shogunate clans, send off your agents to soften up your planned invasion targets and build your ironclads (so much faster!) to transport your armies.
And it should be plain sailing after that.
Bookmarks