Why No Penalty for False Prophets?

[Lemur]

I've noticed over the years that certain predictors and prognosticators are consistently, persistently wrong. They seem to pay no price for being wrong, however, and they continue to be quoted, published, and generally treated as if they weren't complete and total idiots. Why is this?

The prime example would be Rob Enderle, the man who declared that open source was "a scam" that "doesn't contribute to anything." He famously championed Mormon shell corporation SCO when it was attempting to sue Linux, claiming repeatedly that SCO had a great case and would win any minute now. He kept bloviating along these lines pretty much up until SCO was sold for scrap metal. But read any tech column in a major magazine or newspaper, and you will see they continue to hit the Robster up for quotes.

Then there's the Apple naysayers, the folks who predict death and dismemberment for every Cupertino product. No penalty. This gem got dredged up recently:

The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant. [...] The mobile-phone industry is becoming a cozy cartel between the network operators and a limited range of manufacturers. It could certainly use a fresh blast of competition from an industry outsider.

It may come -- but probably from an entrepreneurial start-up somewhere. How about phones with fewer gadgets but better at making calls? Or with never-ending batteries? Or chargers that don't weigh three times as much as the phone?

It won't come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry.

Again, no penalty. Lynn is still out there, getting paid to be wrong.

I suppose this phenomenon exists in political writing as well, but some days it seems to this lemur that the tech writing world is particularly immune to accuracy in prognostication.

What do Orgahs think? Should the Enderles of this world pay a price? What should that price be? Do you have any writers or opinionators who are consistently, epically wrong? (No fair bringing up John Dvorak, he's a parody of himself at this late stage.)

[al Roumi]

Intersting question, it cuts accross a lot of topics -as you mention politics & economics are biggies too.

I think you're probably being a bit harsh though.

Firstly, the chances of any forecast or prediction on this scale coming true are surely not great. Secondly, the incentives for increasing one's profile (and hence career & earnings) lead commentators down the path of braying perhaps deliberately/contrived outspoken views.

That said, they should also get an honest job. Perhaps they could be used to power hot air balloons?

[Lemur]

[T]he incentives for increasing one's profile (and hence career & earnings) lead commentators down the path of braying perhaps deliberately/contrived outspoken views.

You just described John Dvorak's entire career in 23 words. Kudos.

Recent forehead-slappingly wrong prediction from Enderle: Nokia (who aligned with Windows Phone due to desperation and truckloads of cash from Redmond) will "beat" the iPhone. No, you drooling idiot, Android will beat the iPhone. Sheesh. Any idiot could tell you that. Nobody, but nobody is putting their money on Windows Phone 7. Whatta maroon.

[al Roumi]

What's surely the most creepy is how this kind of speculation affects markets. Maybe that's overdoing the effect but you surely have to question in who'se interest these products & companies are bigged up.

[Lemur]

Actually, I've always kinda wondered if a tool such as Enderle gets some sort of payment for his positions. I mean, the dude always sides with money. Always. That was the basis of his Open Source hatred, or so it seemed.

Or maybe it's something more indirect, a sense that "there's always a market for the defender of the status quo," something like that.

The idea that a hack like that is posting his honest opinion? Unlikely.

[Hamata]

"false prophets shall rise"- the bible


couldent think of anything better to post