Yes I concede that the top of the wall is the safest place they could be besides castle black, but I still think there's some plausability, Martin basically tells us there was little to no chance of getting hit, yet I believe there's always the random chance of an arrow getting lucky enough that it goes over the wall and amoung those there are going to be some who are so lucky they hit something And considering the size of mance's army I think there was ample oppertunity for the miracle shot. As for the velocity, the only case of a kill from it in the chapters is a guy who was unlucky enough to fall off the side of a structure made of ice because of the impact. Seeing as the passage say's Red Alyn was "Caught in the leg" it's unknown if it penetrated his leg or gave it a somewhat hard whack. The real question is, with such odds, why mance bothered to send out archers at all, thought that might be the same reason the wildlings attacked with charriots and mammoths the first time when the only attack point is a tunnel.
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