The Bashar al-Assad Betting Game

[PanzerJaeger]

I'm thinking there are four options here.

The Hussein - Assad retains control of his powerful military assets and crushes what appears to be a successful rebellion by an oppressed religious majority town by town, massacre by massacre, as they do not have the firepower, organization, and/or international support to fight back.

The Massoud - Assad and his loyalists retreat to a stronghold, while the rebels assume control of the rest of the country. Syria is essentially split into two nations as neither side is able to defeat the other.

The Mubarak - In an attempt to preserve their power and appease the mob, the military removes Assad from power - either arresting him or expelling him from the country.

The Gaddafi - No explanation needed.

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen - extra points for explaining your thought process.



My bet? The Hussein. The Syrian military is far more powerful than Gaddafi's was, and we saw how much NATO firepower it took to defeat. And despite the reports of defections, it has remained mostly loyal. Without international assistance, the rebels simply do not have the firepower to oust them. The only question in my mind is the level of secret international assistance, coming from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, specifically. If they are getting sufficient amounts of anti-air and anti-armor weaponry plus small arms and ammunition, that paradigm may not hold. Also critical will be the rebels ability to retreat, regroup, and plan operations from the safety of friendly nations, which appears to be the case.

That being said, I still think Assad will eventually reassert power over Syria. The fighting in Damascus almost seems like a trap.

[Strike For The South]

Without odds I can't make a fully informed betting decision.

However, I say Hussein but with the caveat of lip service recessions due to a rather pokey RussiaChina at his back

[PanzerJaeger]

Without odds I can't make a fully informed betting decision.

Well yeah, you don't really win anything either. It's really more of a guessing game.

[Hax]

I don't think anyone would be surprised if we'd find out Saudi-Arabia (in particular) and possibly some other states would be supporting the rebels. Furthermore, I would be kind of careful in drawing comparisons with previous uprisings, particularly that of Saddam Hussein, but the problem lies more in the phrasing: the uprising against Assad is not a religious one.

As of writing this, I'm in Beirut, and we're being continually updated on the latest events in Syria. The current developments point towards a critical stage. The next events will probably be crucial in determining the conflict, but it's very hard to make a real educated guess right now.

[Strike For The South]

please bring me women, a cedar tree, and shisha

[a completely inoffensive name]

God I suck at foreign affairs, but because no one else has said it, I will guess the Gaddafi. Only because I would like another crazy dictator that comedians can easily make fun of.

[Jolt]

I'm thinking there are four options here.

The Hussein - Assad retains control of his powerful military assets and crushes what appears to be a successful rebellion by an oppressed religious majority town by town, massacre by massacre, as they do not have the firepower, organization, and/or international support to fight back.

The Massoud - Assad and his loyalists retreat to a stronghold, while the rebels assume control of the rest of the country. Syria is essentially split into two nations as neither side is able to defeat the other.

The Mubarak - In an attempt to preserve their power and appease the mob, the military removes Assad from power - either arresting him or expelling him from the country.

The Gaddafi - No explanation needed.

Well, to be honest, the Gaddafi would actually be the Hussein. Before the NATO airstrikes, Gaddafi's army was calmly strolling towards Benghazi. Even Saif was saying "This will be over by tomorrow" Only once NATO started bombing the out of every metal thing going East did things start to go sour for Gaddafi.

[truth1337]

I'm thinking there are four options here.

The Hussein - Assad retains control of his powerful military assets and crushes what appears to be a successful rebellion by an oppressed religious majority town by town, massacre by massacre, as they do not have the firepower, organization, and/or international support to fight back.

The Massoud - Assad and his loyalists retreat to a stronghold, while the rebels assume control of the rest of the country. Syria is essentially split into two nations as neither side is able to defeat the other.

The Mubarak - In an attempt to preserve their power and appease the mob, the military removes Assad from power - either arresting him or expelling him from the country.

The Gaddafi - No explanation needed.

OT: You almost listed the components of the American president's name: Mubarak Hussein Osama, oops I mean Barack Hussein Obama. Is it true that that is only a fake identity and his real name is Barry Satoro?

@Topic: I think Assad will try to win the information war and make people realize the rebels are false flag operations, so they will lose sympathy in the west and they will leave having lost both militarily and information-wise.

[a completely inoffensive name]

OT: You almost listed the components of the American president's name: Mubarak Hussein Osama, oops I mean Barack Hussein Obama. Is it true that that is only a fake identity and his real name is Barry Satoro?

[PanzerJaeger]

Was wondering when someone would catch that one.

Here is interesting report from inside Aleppo. Warning: brief clips of deceased Syrian soldiers.



I have been very interested in how the old Soviet AFVs have performed in Libya and now Syria. One would expect the Syrian ones to perform better due to better crew training and maintenance, but it seems that they, too, are being ordered/lured into cities and destroyed. Can any of you military guys identify what killed the T-72 shown in this clip? RPGs would be the most obvious guess, but they would have to be fairly well placed/lucky hits.

[rory_20_uk]

It does seem a "classic" ploy: the rebels / freedom fighter / whatever wail they've no RPGs or anti-air. They hole up in a nice important city. They await the Army to come in with armour, confident they can root out the rebels who appear to have decided to commit suicide.

Lo and behold, they've got RPGs and IEDs they unsportingly didn't tell the Army about. Assad looses tanks which are going to be tough to replace in terrain that is ideal for light infantry with AT to kill them.

[Whacker]

Can any of you military guys identify what killed the T-72 shown in this clip? RPGs would be the most obvious guess, but they would have to be fairly well placed/lucky hits.

Not military, but to me it looks like it's almost completely burned out. Could have been anything from powerful IEDs to RPGs to a bunch of molotov cocktails tossed into the right areas.

[truth1337]

The Syrians may not be Aryan brothers, but they are Christian brothers. Same goes for Iran - they may not be our Christian brothers, but they are our Aryan brothers.

Who except anti-white Jewish neocons and anti-Christian communists would want to see a war between Christian brothers, or Aryan brothers?

The "rebels" in Syria are extremist muslims like in all the other countries that have experienced CIA and Mossad sponsored rebel groups taking over well-working regimes and turning them into extremist Islamist states. We don't need to see our Christian brothers in Syria get destroyed by an invasion orchestrated by Israel through AIPAC.

[Furunculus]

The Gaddafi -

He may well retreat to allawite heartland that is impervious to rebel advance, but the outside world will provide the necessary spur be that by cruise-missile or truck bomb in order to see business concluded.

[Vladimir]

Assad is going down, just like all the women in the Middle East. Then, the world:

http://storify.com/dailydot/ridiculo...el-meme-reddit



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[PanzerJaeger]

double post