I suggest you start looking elsewhere for scum other than by trying to clear or incriminate people simply on the basis of participation in basic townie night actions. The rules are such that you cannot possibly do more than speculate about what the setup is or is not. My personal opinion is that both scenarios are likely true, and that there's a starting duo of mafia with the other two as individuals with townie partners. Such a setup is a bit more devious and of the kind that I would expect from 'khaan.

Also, kill/lynch Monty.