The Bashar al-Assad Betting Game

[PanzerJaeger]

I'm thinking there are four options here.

The Hussein - Assad retains control of his powerful military assets and crushes what appears to be a successful rebellion by an oppressed religious majority town by town, massacre by massacre, as they do not have the firepower, organization, and/or international support to fight back.

The Massoud - Assad and his loyalists retreat to a stronghold, while the rebels assume control of the rest of the country. Syria is essentially split into two nations as neither side is able to defeat the other.

The Mubarak - In an attempt to preserve their power and appease the mob, the military removes Assad from power - either arresting him or expelling him from the country.

The Gaddafi - No explanation needed.

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen - extra points for explaining your thought process.



My bet? The Hussein. The Syrian military is far more powerful than Gaddafi's was, and we saw how much NATO firepower it took to defeat. And despite the reports of defections, it has remained mostly loyal. Without international assistance, the rebels simply do not have the firepower to oust them. The only question in my mind is the level of secret international assistance, coming from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, specifically. If they are getting sufficient amounts of anti-air and anti-armor weaponry plus small arms and ammunition, that paradigm may not hold. Also critical will be the rebels ability to retreat, regroup, and plan operations from the safety of friendly nations, which appears to be the case.

That being said, I still think Assad will eventually reassert power over Syria. The fighting in Damascus almost seems like a trap.