Quote Originally Posted by TinCow View Post
I agree that EF is very scummy. Ironside+'khaan+EF seems like a sensible FOS squad to me. However, this is all pointless unless Ironside is scum. In order for all this theorizing to work, Ironside has to flip as scum. If he flips as innocent then it all falls apart. So, not much point in worrying about anything other than Ironside at the moment.

I also feel like the town may be boned at this point. This game started with 26 people and we've already killed 4 scum but haven't even touched one of the mafia factions. It's likely the other faction has at least 3, likely 4 of its own. That gives us a total of 8 scum in a 26 player game. which is just under 25% of the players. That's a massive number of scum and very difficult to defeat even without town factions fighting on top of it. If those numbers are correct, we're also facing a situation where of the remaining active players, 30-40% are scum. Unless I'm way off on the strength of the other mafia faction or we get super lucky, I think it's only a question of time before they just kill us all.
I'm a bit more optimistic.

One of the scum factions is crippled, and the other, I feel, is about to fall like dominoes due to how they've been publicly behaving in concert.

The only, I repeat, only problem is town's passivity. I think we've got scums by the balls, and twisting nice and tight. All I need is a few good wizards.