Originally Posted by
Sasaki Kojiro
I'm hopeful about the cartel's losing money, but we'll have to see how it turns out.
I got my numbers off; in fact I was lowballing the predicted impact on the cartels. Details:
What would happen if Colorado, Oregon or Washington were to vote for such a “market alternative” on Tuesday? None of those states is a very big drug market in itself. But if it were legal to grow pot in, say, Washington, it’s not hard to imagine that a certain amount of it would illegally leak out into neighbouring states. Would Mexico’s bandits find themselves undercut by “El Cártel de Seattle”?
IMCO reckons they could be. [...] Mexico’s traffickers would lose about $1.4 billion of their $2 billion revenues from marijuana. The effect on some groups would be severe: the Sinaloa “cartel” would lose up to half its total income, IMCO reckons. Exports of other drugs, from cocaine to methamphetamine, would become less competitive, as the traffickers’ fixed costs (from torturing rivals to bribing American and Mexican border officials) would remain unchanged, even as marijuana revenues fell.
Legalisation could, in short, deal a blow to Mexico’s traffickers of a magnitude that no current policy has got close to achieving. The stoned and sober alike should bear that in mind when they cast their votes on Tuesday.
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