Astrologers. The stars are most auspicious for this new venture...

[I_damian]

I was just looking at the retainers for one of my Cartheginian generals. I know a lot of people now believe in astrology and star signs, people actually still read their signs in the newspapers and even pay to have a more personal reading. So a lot of people still believe it today and a lot of people believed it back then too I guess. But the reality is... it's all just a moneymaking scam. It was back then and it is still today. They (try to) tell you exactly what you want to hear, then charge money for it. Half the time it's right, half the time it's wrong.

But what happened to the astrologers who advised generals or even entire governments in history? The Romans used to do auguries with the liver of dead animals and releasing pigeons and somehow they got from this an idea of whether something should be done or not. So what if the auguries for the battle of lake Tresmene(sp) or Cannae were good for the Romans? They suffered their worst defeats in history at those battles.

Are there any examples of astrologers/augurs/whatever being punished for wrong predictions? Surely at some point a general or someone must have got annoyed at constantly being given wrong predictions and thought: "You know what, this astrology business is nothing but a scam."

[vollorix]

An interesting question i also would like to hear the answer on. But, what happens with now days journalists, politicians, prophets of end of days etc.? Before the elections politicians promise people changes, but as soon the elections are over, they face the reality, and find enough reasons to do the opposite. Journalists making lots of propaganda, even changing the world events, and afterward you see how crappy their investigations were. The end of days are yet to come, but who really remembers all the prophets who made such in the past?
Like the first German Kanzler, namely Konrad Adenauer, once said: "Why should i care for what i said yesterday?" ( don´t pin me on the exact translation, though ). There will be always some one else to blame, and there are always new events that let the previous step into shadow.
And btw: the reading in the liver was an Etruscan habit the Romans took over, iirc.

[I_damian]

I see what you mean. Today these doomsday predictions, the people who make them, they're kind of forgotten once the event they predict does not happen. Like those cults that shut themselves in caves and say the world will end at 3pm. At 3pm the world doesn't end and a day later nobody remembers it was ever predicted. Kinda like the millennium bug. Remember that? The whole world was going to explode. Didn't happen, then everybody forgot.

Newspaper columnists are different. They give their opinions and are careful never to make a solid statement. The tricks they use are as follows. They'll put a headline in brackets, such as: "Videogames DO cause violence." The brackets indicate that the newspaper is merely quoting the words of someone else, so they are never liable for that statement. Other times they'll say: "If true." Again this is shielding themselves from any liability if the opposite turns out to be the case and the newspaper is wrong, at which point they conveniently forget they ever wrote it and never mention it again. Newspapers are just liars pushing a certain agenda by lying and distorting facts. You'd have to be an idiot in the first place to believe anything they write.

But astrologers make actual statements. In the case of the ancient world they would perform some strange (strange to us, anyway) action, like killing an animal and cutting out its liver, or releasing pigeons, then make a statement based on the results.

[Arjos]

Newspaper columnists are different. They give their opinions and are careful never to make a solid statement. The tricks they use are as follows. They'll put a headline in brackets, such as: "Videogames DO cause violence." The brackets indicate that the newspaper is merely quoting the words of someone else, so they are never liable for that statement. Other times they'll say: "If true." Again this is shielding themselves from any liability if the opposite turns out to be the case and the newspaper is wrong, at which point they conveniently forget they ever wrote it and never mention it again.

That was pretty much what "future tellers" did in ancient times...

We must also remember, they were always associated to religious systems. Acting as intermediaries and interpreters for the word of the gods/spirits/whatever you like...
Their position and the ruling class one, often shared a "symbiotic" relation: one's influence, legitimized the other, who in turn kept the former's prestige intact...

Besides, those "predictions" were written years after the events, most of the time by people, who profited by the new ruler. So, yes, they were "correct", because they knew what happened XD

Animal offerings, were part of the religions and communal practices, to gain goodwill for example...
People would eat the meat, while the gods recieved the bones and organs, through the fire's smoke...

[I_damian]

So there'd be no examples of astrologers or predictionists (is that a word?) being punished for telling the Seleukid king he'd have marvellous success at Magnesia?

[Ludens]

It's certainly true that astrology is a very lucrative business, and always was. On the other hand, I do feel you are trying to impose a modern concept on a very much non-modern practice. Divinations were (and are) not quantifiable statements of fact. They were mystical revelations from the Gods themselves. They are supposed to be true (Gods don't lie), but not necessarily literal truth. It's hard to understand from a modern perspective, but think of it as a Rorschach test: it's not about the actual shape but about what the subject makes of it.

Secondly, thanks to science we nowadays have a solid understanding of how the world works. The ancients did not possess this understanding, and life could be very uncertain. I don't think flakey predictions would have bothered people that much, since everything was fragile. Obviously, it's difficult for man to understand the will of the Gods, so some miscommunication is to be expected.

So I don't think it fair to condemn all diviners, modern and historical, as crooks. There certainly are frauds, and again that is nothing new, but there are also those that genuinely believe they are helping people understand the unknowable. And in the Classical age, there was so much more that was unknowable. And those things that were known were often no help at all.

But to get back to your original question: no, I am not aware of any diviners being punished for false predictions. But divinations would have rarely been direct anyway. Inspecting the omens before a battle would reveal whether the time was auspicious or not. That's not quite the same thing as predicting the outcome. And even when the prediction was direct, there usually was some ambiguity. The oracle of Delphi famously told King Croesus of Lydia that, should he cross the border (i.e. go to war) with Persia, a great empire would fall. Croesus did, and was utterly defeated. The priests then explained that "Empire" must have meant Lydia, not Persia.

Furthermore, divination wasn't the exclusive preserve of priests. It varied over time and place, but Greek and Roman commanders often carried out the rituals themselves. And even when a priest did it, the general could offer alternative interpretations. So again: the meaning of a prophesy could be debated. It wasn't literal truth, but a divine revelation. It was up to the general to interpret it correctly.

Finally, no amount prophesy would allow you to escape your fate. And if your fate was to be defeated, you should look to the gods rather than punish their messenger.