Gay marriage is a popular policy and one that is becoming increasingly popular, particularly in younger demographics. If the GOP doesn't change its stance, and fast, then it will lose any chance it has of winning over younger voters. Doing so will alienate their core voters, however, and that is why they will not change. Any GOP member who is not vociferously anti-gay marriage will not be nominated, period.
And thus alienate your base of fiscal conservatives.
The only thing that I think the GOP is likely to compromise on is immigration reform, and honestly the Democrats are just likely to do it better in the eyes of the Hispanic community. The party doesn't just have to change its policy, it has to change at the roots of the party and that takes time and will alienate a lot of the angry white people who form the core of the party.
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