Delusional Numbers

**a completely inoffensive name** · 12-03-2012, 09:13

How do campaigns turn out to be complete disasters without the loser foreseeing it ahead of time? How did Romney followers swear that Obama reaching over 330 electoral votes was impossible let alone even winning 270? How did Scott Walker utterly destroy the Democrats recall when Democrats proclaimed that the momentum and the public was on their side?

Nate Silver has some answers on the delusional numbers political campaigns tell themselves, with emphasis on the Romney campaigns internal polls they based their strategies off of.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...y-be-to-blame/

The key point for future GOP candidates?

campaigns would be wise not to have their pollsters serve as public spokesmen or spin doctors for the campaign. Campaigns have other personnel who specialize in those tasks.
The role of the pollster should be just the opposite of this, in fact: to provide a reality check such that the campaign does not begin to believe its own spin.

**rory_20_uk** · 12-03-2012, 11:09

Americans appear to like winners. To ever entertain anything less that total victory will cause persons to leave from the outset.

In the UK, to state one is rich or sucessful in a campaign is equally toxic - especially if Tory.

**gaelic cowboy** · 12-03-2012, 18:08

Bill Maher put his finger on it for me

**Ronin** · 12-03-2012, 19:18

cognitive dissonance is a powerful force, you can see it in religion, but to see it so clearly in politics is more rare.
facts that go against the "truth" get absorbed nonetheless and reworked to fit into the "truth"
it's funny to see them smack against the wall of reality though.