Could the Axis have won?

[Noncommunist]

After having had incredible success early on in the war, were there potential choices which could have altered the course of the war? If Hitler had sent more supplies to Rommel, could the Suez have been seized? Or would a more focused approach have won the battle of Britain? Would invading the Soviets in April have helped? And would focusing on one target have worked? Similarly, were there choices that the Japanese could have made to either help the Germans with the Soviets? Or could the Japanese have targeted a different part of the Pacific to cut off Australia from the US? And would more troops have helped with Burma and India? And could Pearl Harbor have been avoided or been done better? Or did the allies simply have too many resources and too many reasons to fight the Axis that would have made any victory impossible?

[Montmorency]

If the Axis were led by a seasoned wargamer, and war proceeded exactly as depicted in HOI, the world would have been entirely conquered within two years.

Or did the allies simply have too many resources and too many reasons to fight the Axis that would have made any victory impossible?

I figure this one makes the most sense. Though apparently Germany would have met all its oil needs (ie. oil deficit) with just 10% of the output from the Caucasian oilfields. At Baku, I've heard, the oil was only a few tens of meters below the surface and could have been extracted even without the advanced machinery. Anyone want to confirm?

But I don't know much about this stuff.

[AggonyDuck]

I suppose the only way that the Axis could have won is if they could have somehow kept the US out of the war.

[Beskar]

USA wasn't really the issue, a Russian defeat would have changed the tide considerably or even deciding not to even attack Russia, but the issue with that was Russia was building up its arms, so a later assault would have been met by stronger soviet forces.

[Noncommunist]

If the Axis were led by a seasoned wargamer, and war proceeded exactly as depicted in HOI, the world would have been entirely conquered within two years.

Is that presuming that the allies are also run by seasoned wargamers? Or their real reactions?

[Montmorency]

AI.

[Brenus]

The problem with the “what if” is the “if”: Hitler had to attack France when he did, as France was rearming fast, and new material was coming (especially planes) and the French tanks were better. Few months more, and Gamelin would have been in pension, and nobody could say if a new Head of Allies Forces would have done…
There are a lot of “if” in your first assessment. The entire plan was based on the “Blitz Krieg”. This war failed when the Red Army wasn’t destroyed at the borders. Then Germany had no weapons for a strategic war (no Strategic Bombing Command). Hitler gambled and lost, as shown by the lack of winter clothing in 1941… The first major German defeat is in front of Moscow in 1941. German’s campaigns after 1941 was just a try to compensate a failure.

“so a later assault would have been met by stronger soviet forces.”: The Soviet were stronger than the Nazi. The problem was the lack of competent military leaders thanks to Stalin paranoia and the purges. Perhaps the Germans would have met more T 34, but the counter-offensive would have been still un-coordinated, and Russian men sacrificed in vain.

About the Pacific War, I think the Japanese were at the limit of their operational capacities in attacking Midway, and that why they failed. How, could they have cut Australia from USA? The Germans tried it with U-boot and nearly succeeded for few months, but, then, they failed.

[Franconicus]

Well, what were the alternatives?

Not attacking Poland, of course. Well, then the Drittes Reich would have been bankrupt (not too bad allternative).

The invasion of Scandinavia and France went pretty well. Dunkerque could have been better, though.
I think Hitler had a little chance then to end the war. We all know that Churchill's Britain was not willing to give in, but I always wondered what would have happaned if Germany offered peace at relatively good terms to France and Poland. Taking Elsac-Lorraine and Danzig to the Reich, but leaving the rest. Making a military political and economic alliance with Poland, the BeNeLux, Norway, Sweden and France. Germany would have been the leading nation on the continent. What reason would Britain have had to go on fighting? What reasion the USA to join the war. Hitler could have waited some years and then invading Russia.

The other chance was the submarine war. With a focus on this weapon and w/o that Enigma stuff, Germany would have a chance to cut off the British Islannds and to force Britain to peace. Maybe not a lasting one, but at least a chance.

I do not believe in anything else. Why should Germany have won the war, if it was able to take seize Suez? It would have been some trouble for Britain to loose the swa route throught th Med, but Germany would not have had the resources to invade Arabia or even India.
Moscow? Even the fall of Moscow would not have ended the war against the Soviets.