Could the Axis have won?

[Sarmatian]

I've always felt that if Germany had offered Japan something concrete, in particular, the technology for high-pressure coal gasification, it might have tipped the decision in the Japanese Diet to attack the Soviet Union at the time when the German Operation Typhoon was jumping off. There were more than a few members in the Diet who still wished to wage war with the SU, so this kind of proposal might have found support. The Japanese were fully capable of invading and capturing Vladivostok (which, as it turned out, was the port of entry for more LL than all the other routes combined) and harassing other areas that kept them out of tank country (one reason for their defeat at Khalkin Gol).

Now there weren't all that many Far Eastern divisions that were sent to the Moscow Military District (9 divisions out of the 50 that participated in the Dec counter-offensive), but anything that ratcheted up the heat on Stalin's government could only help the Germans. Moscow's fall certainly doesn't guarantee Stalin's capitulation, but it would certainly have made things far more grim for the Soviets.

Even with German technology, it was only a partial solution and a very long-term one. It would have taken years to set up plants to effectively produce coal gas and convert it to fuel in meaningful quantities.

Another issue is that, unlike Germany, Japan's coal reserves were small, expensive to extract and coal ore was of poor quality. Most of coal came outside home islands.

Another issue is whether Japanese could have seriously threatened Russian Far Eastern Army, which was over a million strong and well-supplied. Even at it's peak, Kwantung Army wasn't over 1.5 million strong (iirc) and lacked equipment for mechanised warfare. Symbolic capturing of Vladivostok could have maybe been possible but that wouldn't do much to hurt the Soviets. Lend-lease made up only a small fraction of Soviet war-time production and the bulk of it came too late. It allowed the Red Army to perform offensive operations more efficiently, thus saving time and lives but it had absolutely zero effect on turning the tide.