Could the Axis have won?

[Sarmatian]

Agreed. But perhaps if the capture of Moscow does force the Soviets to capitulate (not likely, but possible), then oil could be sent from the Caucasus if the Trans-Siberian Railway can be improved enough to allow it. Also, the oil production facilities in the Sakhalin Islands becomes available to the Japanese to the tune of 580 million barrels/yr.

That's hindsight 20/20. IF the Japanese could correctly assess how quickly would Wehrmacht reach Moscow, IF Wehrmacht actually takes Moscow (it's a huge city, reaching it is not the same as taking it), IF it leads to Soviet capitulation (very unlikely)... A lot of if's, and it means taking on the army that kicked their butts twice recently. Even if all goes according to plan and then some, it's the Germans who get all the spoils and it leaves Japan dependent on German goodwill, which is contrary to the whole reason Japan went to war in the first place. Sure, Germany is friendly now, but US was friendly a few decades ago. On the other side, there are very rich and poorly defended areas ripe for the taking right that moment.

They could...as long as they stayed out of prime tank country like that found around Khalkin Gol, and operated in the heavily wooded areas (negating Soviet armored formations) around Kharbarovsk and Chingchangkou where their superiority in small unit tactics give them the advantage.

Debatable. I don't rate Japanese WW2 army that highly, but even if true, they would basically be conquering empty territory. Few population centres, few industry, and unlike modern Russia, Soviet Union at the time didn't exploit much of Siberian mineral wealth. Sure, it would have been a blow, but how severe.

I don't believe Vladivostok is simply symbolic and the discussion of LL is better kept to another topic

Yes, but if you argue capture of Vladivostok would have been severe for the Soviets due to loss of a major port for LL aid, the importance of LL overall becomes a valid point of discussion.