Could the Axis have won?

[Sarmatian]

Thanks for making the effort. However, I'm not sure one can use simple extrapolation using data covering other countries. I'm not a statistician, so my opinion may be incorrect. But....the point I was trying to make concerning the Ukraine and its view towards the ruling Communist Party remains. Ukrainians harbored a deep resentment towards the Bolsheviks both for the forced collectivization of farms, the withholding of food during the Great Famine, and for religious persecution. Without knowing the true nature of Nazism, I believe they would have given a great deal of support to the Germans if it hadn't been for the Einsatzgruppen.

Of course, the lack of data about the population of Ukraine, the effect of famine etc... only gives us the option of an educated guess at best. But, in the lack of concrete information, those "educated guesses" are based on demographics in 99% of the cases. Keep in mind that Russia also suffered additional losses after the WW1 due to Civil War, war against various expeditionary armies and and war with Poland between 1918-1930. I would sincerely be surprised if the effect of famine was more than a million or two deaths in entire Soviet Union and not more than a few hundred thousands in Ukraine specifically. Of course, there is a large margin of error, but figures of 20 millions, even 10 and 5, are simply not possible.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I would sincerely be surprised if the effect of famine was more than a million or two deaths in entire Soviet Union and not more than a few hundred thousands in Ukraine specifically. Of course, there is a large margin of error, but figures of 20 millions, even 10 and 5, are simply not possible.

20 million is far too high, yes....a few hundred thousand far too low. Frank Lorimier in his book The Population of the Soviet Union, places the number of peasant deaths (non-specific as to geographic locations) at four million (and calls that a conservative estimate). He also lists the Kazakh population as 4 million in the 1926 census and 3 million in the 1939 census (1.5 million short of what it should have been).

Noone will probably ever know the true number of deaths. But its' the intent of the Stalin regime to extract its' grain quotas regardless of the consequences to the peasant farmers that's the issue, IMHO. If you look at a map of the former Soviet Union today, it seems to me that even after several generations, the peoples of the Ukraine, and the Trans-Caucasus District have long memories

[Brenus]

“These figures are completely inaccurate” Could be, I took them on Wikypedia, and was too lazy to check them… Same for the German Historian Karl-Heinz Frieser in “Blitzkrieg-Legende: der Westfeldzug 1940”, saying that a German officer compared this battle with Casino or even Verdun. It was Xmas and didn’t make my homework on this.
But other sources give same figures.
However, the French mistakes were obvious, but it illustrates what I was saying; without the total incompetence of the French Command during the initial offensive, the outcome of the battle could have been different. So, Hitler was right to stop the offensive to Dunkirk, clearing Lille first and then finishing off The UK and French armies. Then the French defensive tactic (Artillery, Infantry and Tanks) was vindicated as the Panzer couldn’t break it. You will notice that was the same employed by the Russian in Kursk.

The funny thing is that the same reproaching Hitler his caution at Dunkirk are the same reproaching him his reckless attitude in Russia!

“the Germans were shocked at the incompetence of the French forces beyond the small unit level.” The French Generals incompetence can’t be denied. But they did, blaming the individual soldier for it. And it worked; proof is when you read the comment on the French Military Aptitude. They succeed to convince even the French that they didn’t fight. I was, until I went for more details…

[ReluctantSamurai]

However, the French mistakes were obvious, but it illustrates what I was saying; without the total incompetence of the French Command during the initial offensive, the outcome of the battle could have been different

French generals, with a few exceptions, were certainly timid. But...in all fairness, noone (except perhaps the Japanese) had experienced massed armored attacks on the scale with which the Germans had unleashed. The confusion and dislocation caused by fast-moving armor can certainly lead to indecision (especially when you attempt to set up a new HQ location only to find the Germans already there), and the lack of adequate recon more often than not had the French desperately trying to find out where the German armor was....

So, Hitler was right to stop the offensive to Dunkirk, clearing Lille first and then finishing off The UK and French armies.

Neither Guderian nor Manstein agreed with the decision, though Manstein more than Guderian offers suggestions on what should have been done. Neither had the "big picture" however.