Syria

[The Wizard]

I honestly and sincerely can see no possible way whatsoever for this to develop past anything other than a military conflict involving Syria pitted against the West and its hangers-on. As a political event it may have much more fallout -- an even more intransigent China and Russia, to name just one possible outcome in high politics -- but there is next to no chance of a Western punitive expedition leading to a larger conflict.

I agree with Monty and The Wizard.
Syria is not interesting; not a hill to die on from a foreign policy perspective. But they have made it into one.
Will they double down on stupidity or lose face; history seems to point to doubling down.
The real foreign policy failure was painting themselves into the corner on an issue so trivial to interests.

Of course that might just be it.
The object may be to embarrass Russia.
Which is a powerful statement from the PoV of international dick-swinging; but is it worth the trouble.

I beg to differ, actually. This goes much further than a narrow idea of "national interests." Syria has become a "hill to die on" because it has violated one of the central norms governing international relations: the proscription of the use of WMDs. Of course this intersects with various other interests and events (not least of which is taking it to Assad, an old ally of Iran and enemy of the West), but it has essentially taken Damascus beyond the pale. There is an interest here to intervene, and that is to prevent the norm against the use of WMDs from weakening. The process is dynamic as the norm is both a structure of the international system as an object of politics (as witnessed by how it's being played up by France, USA, etc), but it has still created an actual interest among various countries to intervene.

I do not think we should act without UN support. It will set a bad precedent with the ascending superpower.

Not only that right now China and Russia being forced to agree on something isn't a good idea.

I agree. I am worried about the Western powers moving before having exhausted the legal frameworks and institutions they have at their disposal to generate international (and domestic!) goodwill. Attacking Syria should be a new Kosovo rather than a new Iraq, if it has to be done without UNSC approval at all.