US Federal Government Shutdown

[Pannonian]

The only thing I love more than English is abusing English. And there's nothing more English than that.

There is indeed nothing more English than abusing English. But it only happens with former public schoolboys, and they pay certain ladies good money for the privilege.

[Pannonian]

You hear that? That was the sound of whatever you just did going right over my head. Some kind of limey slang at work?

Life as a dominatrix

"When you think of a dominatrix what do you think of? Black leather catsuits, whips, chains and an old Etonian boy being spanked?"

[Husar]

English is a very... wide... language.

Intellectuals however look to the English English (You know, ENGLISH), as some sort of key to the language.

Which intellectuals? At my university we're apparently using American English for scientific writings.

[Kadagar_AV]

Which intellectuals? At my university we're apparently using American English for scientific writings.

Really?

Over here you get ridiculed if you spell it "color".

Double negatives and you will be hit with the stupid-stick.

[Husar]

Really?

Over here you get ridiculed if you spell it "color".

Double negatives and you will be hit with the stupid-stick.

Yes. I'm not fond of "color" but neither am I fond of "centre".

As for double negatives, they are not really part of American English, to assume they are used in scientific writing is ridiculous.
They are just part of everyday speech/dialects/slang, I didn't say we use slang for scientific writing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Really?

Over here you get ridiculed if you spell it "color".

Double negatives and you will be hit with the stupid-stick.

Old Joke on U.S. College campuses (campi?):


New Student: Hey, could you tell me where the library is at?

Old Student: At this university, we do not end our sentences with prepositions.

New Student: Sorry, so where's the library at, a******?

[Greyblades]

Is there any chance we could adjourn this pointless english lesson and get back to the matter at hand?

[Sp4]

How did you get hung up on English? ^^

[Tellos Athenaios]

In America, to my knowledge, English is not a reference to dominatrixes or whatever. You strange limeys.

To the best of my knowledge, English also refers to the inhabitants of England.

[HoreTore]

To the best of my knowledge, English also refers to the inhabitants of England.

Thus, the link to dominatrix.

When ones idea of 'jolly good fun' involves sitting around drinking tea and crumpets, you know there's something wild going on in the bedroom.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Thus, the link to dominatrix.

When ones idea of 'jolly good fun' involves sitting around drinking tea and crumpets, you know there's something wild going on in the bedroom.

Agreed, compensation for too much stiff.....upper lip....in public.

[Pannonian]

Agreed, compensation for too much stiff.....upper lip....in public.

The stiff upper lip is the bit between the rosy cheeks.

[Lemur]

Oh look, my personal congresscritter is trying to scuttle a deal. Again. Like he always does. Two thoughts:

1. I'd like to slap my representative repeatedly.
2. Why is anyone surprised? This is consistent with his behavior over the past decade.

Gah.

[Paul Ryan] is rallying conservatives against a Senate plan to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

The plan, proposed by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), would fund the government through March and raise the debt ceiling through January. Senate Democrats rejected the proposal on Saturday because it locks in sequestration cuts for too long.

Sources told the Post that, in a private meeting with House Republicans, Ryan said that by kicking the can down the road, the GOP would lose “leverage" in their fight against Obamacare.

Ryan's main concern appears to be delaying the health care law's individual mandate, but ThinkProgress points out that Ryan also emphasized the need to give employers the ability to deny birth control coverage based on moral or religious reasons.

According to the Post, some Republicans present for Ryan's speech "grew visibly excited about the prospect of opposing" plans like Collins'.

[CrossLOPER]

Is there any chance we could adjourn this pointless english lesson and get back to the matter at hand?

Yes, like the fact that there is a very real chance that the furloughed workers are not going to be paid for a month's worth of work due to the situation we have going on at the Dick Dome?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Well, Vets are fucked. TinCow can correct me if I'm wrong, but as of today the chances of any Veteran, of any war, with any level of disability, receiving any kind of payment on-time in November is about that of a snowball in hell.

I'm out of derogatory terms for Congress.

I suggest Mencken and Clemens -- both were wonderful in their excoriation of that institution. Perhaps that will allow you to re-ammo? I sadly concur that you are not likely to run short of targets anytime soon.

[TinCow]

Well, Vets are fucked. TinCow can correct me if I'm wrong, but as of today the chances of any Veteran, of any war, with any level of disability, receiving any kind of payment on-time in November is about that of a snowball in hell.

I'm not aware of any specific date for when the November payments become "doomed," bar November 1. I know Shinseki said some stuff about late October being a deadline for getting the November checks out, but I don't recall him saying an actual date. I'd expect the "late October" stuff to be days from the 20th onwards, not anything beforehand. I would think that if a bill were passed before the 17th reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling, all checks would arrive on-time. Maybe even if it was passed a few days after. That said, I'm not privy to those kinds of discussions and my agency has nothing to do with the mechanics of actual payment in any case. I'm just a lowly grunt working away at the backlog. My personal deadline is November 7th, as that's when my agency itself runs out of cash and I no longer get paid.

[edit]I just remembered, I do recall hearing something about GI Bill payments having already been halted as of last week. That's separate from compensation and pension payments though.

I'm out of derogatory terms for Congress.

I believe that referring to someone as a Congressman/woman is itself now a sufficiently derogatory term to warrant lethal response in a stand-your-ground situation in Florida and some other states.

[ICantSpellDawg]

We are obviously going to default sooner or later, let's just get the show on the road.
If the US defaults and loses a credit rating with more agencies, wouldn't this have a positive effect on other types of investment? Or would the entire standard be lowered. If people thought that the US government was irresponsible, shouldn't a recognition of this fact drive bond US prices higher, interest rates up? Wouldn't this drive money into a private sector which looks better by comparison at the same time as it dosincentivises government borrowing? Collapse of trust in government does not mean trust is gone. We live in a trust vacuum - if the government loses hold, you find trust in another's hand.

Fingers crossed for crossing the Rubicon. Government should be shown for how untrustworthy and profligate it is.

I think the GOP is finally ready to shoot the proverbial hostage. Please fold your arms, curl your body forward and brace for crash.

Also, I can't believe that there are so few articles which highlight an upside. There is literally an upside to everything. There has to be an upside to this, since it is our more likely by the minute course

[Montmorency]

I am totally cool with the prospect of dying of dehydration in a gutter within X years.

Probably less suffering if you don't fight over sustenance with the other indigents. Simply relax and try to stay asleep for the better part of a week or so. It might prove difficult at first due to the pain and all the rest, but once you're halfway-through you shouldn't be able to do much else besides sleep. It works even better if it comes to pass in the winter; this might seem counterintuitive, but the discomfort of the heat and humidity and insect-life of summer would likely make it more difficult to let go.

Don't be scared, is all I'm sayin'.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

:

[ICantSpellDawg]

I am totally cool with the prospect of dying of dehydration in a gutter within X years.

Probably less suffering if you don't fight over sustenance with the other indigents. Simply relax and try to stay asleep for the better part of a week or so. It might prove difficult at first due to the pain and all the rest, but once you're halfway-through you shouldn't be able to do much else besides sleep. It works even better if it comes to pass in the winter; this might seem counterintuitive, but the discomfort of the heat and humidity and insect-life of summer would likely make it more difficult to let go.

Don't be scared, is all I'm sayin'.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

:

Doom and gloom. Let's hear the positive.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but: there is a positive to possible world-wide economic collapse, inflicted by a one group of self-interested politicians, in one single country, whose collective understanding of the international economy would apparently fit easily on the head of a pin?

Not only are they willing to destroy the US economy, but they do not even appear to have considered the wider consequences.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but: there is a positive to possible world-wide economic collapse, inflicted by a one group of self-interested politicians, in one single country, whose collective understanding of the international economy would apparently fit easily on the head of a pin?

Not only are they willing to destroy the US economy, but they do not even appear to have considered the wider consequences.

Whatever. Treasury yields rise, government debt becomes riskier, money diverts to other governments or private industry. Or, we pay the debt back anyway, just later and even though yields rise, nobody is that shaken because what are the alternatives? Velocity is slowed down, resulting in jobs lost that were likely to be lost anyway. The plus side to the stagnation is that money that was directed at government is now directed elsewhere. Government is crippled, money has to find something else now that the government is no longer able to pretend that it is solvent

Major revisions forced to medicare, social security and we end up paying our debts anyway. Who knows? An overwhelming majority of economists? Let's start taking risks. People used to throw all of their money into rickety old ships and cross the world's oceans. They used to get into aircraft and fly without knowing what to expect. Sometimes you have to not be afraid to lose everything.

[Lemur]

If the US defaults and loses a credit rating with more agencies, wouldn't this have a positive effect on other types of investment?

[a completely inoffensive name]

People used to throw all of their money into rickety old ships and cross the world's oceans. They used to get into aircraft and fly without knowing what to expect. Sometimes you have to not be afraid to lose everything.

Looks like the first thing to fix is the education system.

[Xiahou]

There's not going to be a default, folks. The government makes more than enough tax revenue to service the debt. I linked a Moody's article earlier. Now here's one from Forbes.

The federal government estimates it will collect almost $3 trillion in revenue for the fiscal year that runs from October 1, 2013 until September 30, 2014. Below I demonstrate one possible way the federal government could institute some priorities and spend only the amount it receives in revenue. (All the numbers I use to construct the balanced budget below can be found here.)

To begin with, the interest on the national debt must be paid. I will budget $240 billion for that. The White House is guessing a little lower, but interest rates have been rising, so I will play it safe. Next, social security payments should run about $860 billion. Place that as the second priority and we already have spent $1.1 trillion of the $3 trillion we have.

It won't be unicorns and rainbows, but default won't happen.

[TinCow]

Let's start taking risks. People used to throw all of their money into rickety old ships and cross the world's oceans. They used to get into aircraft and fly without knowing what to expect. Sometimes you have to not be afraid to lose everything.

Uh, you do realize that that the risks involved in sailing those rickety old ships across the world's oceans was the one of the main reasons that the modern insurance industry developed, right? People were not fans of the risk even back then.

[Ironside]

There's not going to be a default, folks. The government makes more than enough tax revenue to service the debt. I linked a Moody's article earlier. Now here's one from Forbes.


It won't be unicorns and rainbows, but default won't happen.

And Jeffrey Dorfman also expects that fireing a big chunck of employed people will have 0 effect on the income.

It's a 50% cut on education, abolishment of NASA (good luck restarting it afterwards), DoE (who are responsible of taking care of the nuclear waste for starters), DoC (they do patents), dumping farm subsidies (long term it might be useful, shot term it's going to kill off US farming), 40% defense cut, etc, etc. This will of course have no negative side effects at all.

It's causing an economic crash about the same time you can see recovery from the last one.

[TinCow]

To be fair to ICSD, I do somewhat share his view that if Oct 18th arrives and the debt ceiling has not been raised, not a whole lot will happen. The risk comes into play with a much longer-term issue. A short jaunt over the ceiling won't really do much to shake the faith of investors in the validity of US bonds. The fact remains that the global market believes that, even if the US goes over the debt ceiling, it will eventually get authorized and all bonds will be repaid in full, possibly even with higher interest to compensate for any temporary defaults that occurred along the way. The market basically does not think it is even possible for there to be a scenario in which the debts are never repaid, which is what was at risk in places like Greece. As such, life will generally go on as normal in the financial industry come Oct 18th. Certainly the stock markets will rock and roll, but that will be an instinctual reaction to uncertainty and it will eventually even out. Harm will start to kick in the longer the default goes on, as failure to make payments will start to impact the US economy directly and would likely plunge us back into recession if it lasted long enough. That in itself is bad news and will depress the entire global economy, but it's not a situation like that which developed in 2008. True financial chaos would only occur if the markets started to believe that US bonds would not be repaid in full and, quite honestly, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which that could ever occur. It wouldn't be a pleasure cruise for anyone, particularly those who depend on monthly checks which would not arrive, but it's not quite the financial apocalypse that some have made it out to be. The reason is simply that the financial markets have more faith in the US government than our own citizens do. Right or wrong, that's all that matters.

[TinCow]

If the US defaults and loses a credit rating with more agencies, wouldn't this have a positive effect on other types of investment? Or would the entire standard be lowered. If people thought that the US government was irresponsible, shouldn't a recognition of this fact drive bond US prices higher, interest rates up? Wouldn't this drive money into a private sector which looks better by comparison at the same time as it dosincentivises government borrowing? Collapse of trust in government does not mean trust is gone. We live in a trust vacuum - if the government loses hold, you find trust in another's hand.

This bit is incorrect. The US is in a unique position because of the level of trust that is placed in its credit-worthiness by the global financial industry. There is no alternative to the US for this role, which is one of the main reasons the markets haven't already abandoned us. If there was somewhere else they could go that was as safe, or even close to as safe, they would already be there. But they aren't because there isn't. Once the US is no longer regarded as a guaranteed safe haven for investments, we will be in a world where this is no guaranteed safe haven for investments. That's not necessarily a financial apocalypse either, but there simply isn't another investment option that is ready to step into our shoes. People talk alot about China, but there is a growing sense in the markets that China itself is riding a bubble. Asian markets have always been notoriously bubble-rific and big collapses out there are part of doing business. European confidence is gone and will not return for a long time. I shouldn't even need to mention the problems with South America, Africa, and Russia. There's also the problem that even where there are other markets that are considered safe, they aren't large enough to meet demand. Part of the benefit of the US is that we carry so much debt that there's always room to invest in us. The same can't be said for much smaller states. Even if you think Canada and Sweden are nice stable places, they alone cannot support the global marketplace.

Once confidence in the US is gone, we will be in uncharted waters. There has never been a period in modern history in which there has not been a financial safe-haven for investments of some kind, not even during the Great Depression. If the markets lose confidence in US credit-worthiness, we will certainly go through a period of financial chaos the likes of which no living person has ever seen. That said, it's going to take a lot more than one day over the debt ceiling to shake confidence in the US. Make us go past the debt ceiling for a month or more, and then repeat the default process a second time and a third time, and you may want to start buying a lot of bullion.

[Lemur]

Now here's one from Forbes.

Or more accurately, from a Southern libertarian economics professor, whose notable work is titled Ending the Era of the Free Lunch. Not exactly reaching outside of your comfort zone there. Yes, 9 out of 10 libertarians agree: Government bad. Now let's hear from Grover Norquist and the cast of Atlas Shrugged!

Despite the fact that all of your recent posts have boiled down to "the government can pay its bills," and "default won't happen," I don't get the impression you've done much reading on the subject. Can you address prioritization? The unevenness (indeed, randomness) of tax receipts, when broken down to a week-by-week or month-by-month basis? The weird bill the Repubs tried to force through forbidding the Treasury to take "extraordinary measures" to not default?

@TinCow is correct that prioritizing debt repayment over all other functions would leave ample money to service the debt, while crippling silly things like the military. But it's not clear the U.S. Treasury is even set up to perform that sort of prioritization, which is an issue when you're processing millions of payments per year.

[TinCow]

@TinCow is correct that prioritizing debt repayment over all other functions would leave ample money to service the debt, while crippling silly things like the military. But it's not clear the U.S. Treasury is even set up to perform that sort of prioritization, which is an issue when you're processing millions of payments per year.

That's not what I was referring to, actually. Whether prioritization occurs or not, the faith remains that the US will eventually pay back the full amount of all of its bonds, plus interest. That faith remains even if the US actually fails to make an interest payment on bonds. The belief is that, even if this occurs, the US will still compensate the bondholder fully a little further down the road, possibly even with higher interest rates than they were issued at originally. That's the faith that the markets have in the US system at the moment. They believe that the US is capable of paying its debts and that the current crisis is caused by politics, not by an underlying weakness of the US economy. Thus, once the political situation is resolved, the money will continue flowing as normal, even if it is delayed. In order for there to be true financial chaos, investors need to believe that it may be possible that the US will never pay them in full for their bond investments. We're nowhere near close to that kind of sentiment yet.