US Federal Government Shutdown

[ICantSpellDawg]

I agree with this. If the 18th rolls around with no debt ceiling increase, there will be significant damage done to our reputation and, with every day that goes by, to the economy. As I said, we could easily plunge back into recession if the US misses SSA payments and other such things. However, there is something of an alarmist Financial Mad Max attitude going around which I think has the potential to undermine the Democrats position. If they try and make people believe that the entire system will come crashing down on the 18th, those that are most vocal disputing it (the Tea Party) will gain credibility. That's particularly so because even if there is a default it would likely be short-lived and resolved before the most serious impact began to take hold. That in itself would be good for the Tea Party, because the public would visibly see us go over the debt ceiling and the world not end. They would not understand that the only reason that the world didn't end was that we didn't go far enough over. Thus, they would be much more likely to support going far enough over in the future. That, to me, is dangerous because the Tea Party itself is dangerously wrong about the long-term impact of the problem, as demonstrated by ICSD's opinion about such a prolonged default. If that kind of mentality is given some credibility, the risk that a long-term default (or a repeat several months down the road) will occur increases. As such, I think it's important to be realistic about exactly what will happen here to make sure that the Dems are not accused of crying wolf after the fact. We need to emphasize to the American public that if they wake up on the 18th with no debt ceiling increase they shouldn't expect to see roving bands of marauders in the streets and half the world on fire. Life will go on as per normal for most people for at least a few days or weeks. It would only be after such a period that things would get increasingly worse. If people understand that, there's less of a risk that the obstructionists will get a credibility bounce that might itself cause the catastrophe that we want to avoid.

Your responses have been well reasoned, non-alarmist and effectively apolitical which I respect.

With regards to my understanding of this situation, I am not an economics guy, I understand that. What I do seem to accept is that;
1.Deficit spending for Federal and, to some extent, State Governments is a good thing in most situations.
2.the debt ceiling is not the edge of the world but a guide sign well in advance of the edge of the world.
3.Our levels of deficit spending have reached unsustainable levels and our current spending is not being directed in a way that makes deficit spending a good thing in the first place; effective education and infrastructure development.
4. Our spending levels, low growth outlook, and entitlement culture, coupled with longer life expectancy make dramatic tax increases over time a guarantee

Recognition of these things makes me desire pulling us past this artificial ceiling as this would help us to constantly fail to increase it, until we are able to get our spending in order - to a more favorable ratio of deficit spending. It would give much more credit to the position that it will not be increased, so that more radical debt and budget cuts are required, to entitlements in particular. Medicare and social security ages should be spiked, with a means tested ladder to those who would be most harmed. Major cuts to education expenses with a major drive towards fewer teachers by radically increased use of technology. Dramatic shedding of redundant government jobs, as they are treated as a form of entitlement. We can have a bloody revolution, or we can have a financial one, but there is nothing healthy about our national situation. We are at the point where people are breaking. Sacrifice of the GOP is worth it to force a major overhaul.

I'm not afraid of being called an idiot. When I smell bullshit I don't have to be a scientist to call it out. This is a representative democratic republic. We elect those who represent us, they are not appointed based on how intelligent other intelligent people think they are. The world will not end if the central planners in our politburo back up a bit and cut some of the reigns is my point. Damage to trust in the system, proximity to the debt ceiling with stoic realizations about it's artificial nature may have helped us for next time or it may have shrunk the GOP in the house. It remains to be seen until the midterms.