Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

The problem might be that Yatseniuk doesn't support ceasefire. President is much more powerful than PM in Ukraine but it's a question how much power and authority Poroshenko really wields.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There isn't just black and white, but there is also a difference between being light grey and being dark grey on the scale.
And you also just said that your initial bias grew stronger with time, something I cannot honestly say.

You're very much in the "horse has bolted" minority now Husar.

You're still not addressing the question of those Russian troops inside Ukraine, and let's face it, if NATO is willing to release "intel" showing what they say are Russian armoured columns then you can bet they have some actual intel that proves it.

Let's reconsider those "three" Russian tanks in light of that, shall we?

Are you still going to claim that the majority of rebel armour came from inside Ukraine, or are you willing to wake up and smell the coffee?

[Husar]

You're very much in the "horse has bolted" minority now Husar.

You're still not addressing the question of those Russian troops inside Ukraine, and let's face it, if NATO is willing to release "intel" showing what they say are Russian armoured columns then you can bet they have some actual intel that proves it.

Then they should just release it and not take their sweet time to fabricate it.

Let's reconsider those "three" Russian tanks in light of that, shall we?

Are you still going to claim that the majority of rebel armour came from inside Ukraine, or are you willing to wake up and smell the coffee?

I'm not a morning coffee person even though I take very long to wake up. It seems quite strange that Putin would send barely enough tanks to let the Ukrainian government win very slowly. And Russian army tankers have to be very suicidal to go there in outdated tanks as cannon fodder for no good reason other than to troll the Ukrainian government a bit. Makes you wonder why Putin's approval rating is so high when he just sends people slowly into a meatgrinder. And you are conversely saying that the Ukrainian army had no bases and/or lost no units or vehicles in Eastern Ukraine?

[Hax]

Because he's playing both sides: by refusing to start a full-scale full-on invasion of Ukraine, he's -- more-or-less -- giving off the image that he really only wants peace, he only wants to defend the Russian minority, etc, etc. Putin is not an idiot, he's not going to launch a full-scale invasion like that, of course it's going to be bit-by-bit.

Do you think it's a coincidence that these tanks were spotted less than 24 hours after Poroshenko and Putin met in Minsk and had their talk?

And Russian army tankers have to be very suicidal to go there in outdated tanks as cannon fodder for no good reason other than to troll the Ukrainian government a bit.

Because when you're a soldier, you can disagree with commands from higher-ups at will when you feel like it.

[Husar]

Because he's playing both sides: by refusing to start a full-scale full-on invasion of Ukraine, he's -- more-or-less -- giving off the image that he really only wants peace, he only wants to defend the Russian minority, etc, etc. Putin is not an idiot, he's not going to launch a full-scale invasion like that, of course it's going to be bit-by-bit.

Do you think it's a coincidence that these tanks were spotted less than 24 hours after Poroshenko and Putin met in Minsk and had their talk?

Which "these tanks"?
And if he wants to take Ukraine bit-by-bit why is he losing it bit-by-bit so far?

Because when you're a soldier, you can disagree with commands from higher-ups at will when you feel like it.

Yeah, it's called low morale, but apparently they only posted happy tweets about how they're slowly getting killed.

[Gilrandir]

Makes you wonder why Putin's approval rating is so high when he just sends people slowly into a meatgrinder.

The society at large doesn't realize that. Most military are reported (to the Russian public) to be having an excercise in Rostov region and those dead are described as getting lost, straying somehow to Ukraine and coming under mortar fire. This was the explanation of the cases having hit the fan. Otherwise the dead are reported (to the relatives) just to have died during the exercise.The facebook group I linked claims that there is a cremation vehicle circulating about Donbas to hide the telltale signs of Russian invasion.

And you are conversely saying that the Ukrainian army had no bases and/or lost no units or vehicles in Eastern Ukraine?

Even if such cases happened (which I doubt considering the fact that the separatists took down from pedestals tank-monuments dating back to WWII) they still cannot explain the numbers in which tanks are reported to be present in Ukraine. RNBO reports every other day about columns of dozens (sometime a hundred) of vehicles that have crossed into Ukraine, most (or a significant part) of them being tanks.

And if he wants to take Ukraine bit-by-bit why is he losing it bit-by-bit so far?

I would say the opposite: Ukrainan army has left Debaltseve, Yasynuvata, Saur Mohyla, a number of smaller villages and the Luhansk airport. Mariupol is under direct threat and it seems that all available forces were sent there. Except those it seems that Ukraine has no reinforcements to stop the holes in the frontlines since it was not ready for "the helping hand" of Moscow stretching to Donbas.

[Husar]

The society at large doesn't realize that. Most military are reported (to the Russian public) to be having an excercise in Rostov region and those dead are described as getting lost, straying somehow to Ukraine and coming under mortar fire. This was the explanation of the cases having hit the fan. Otherwise the dead are reported (to the relatives) just to have died during the exercise.The facebook group I linked claims that there is a cremation vehicle circulating about Donbas to hide the telltale signs of Russian invasion.

Even if such cases happened (which I doubt considering the fact that the separatists took down from pedestals tank-monuments dating back to WWII) they still cannot explain the numbers in which tanks are reported to be present in Ukraine. RNBO reports every other day about columns of dozens (sometime a hundred) of vehicles that have crossed into Ukraine, most (or a significant part) of them being tanks.

I would say the opposite: Ukrainan army has left Debaltseve, Yasynuvata, Saur Mohyla, a number of smaller villages and the Luhansk airport. Mariupol is under direct threat and it seems that all available forces were sent there. Except those it seems that Ukraine has no reinforcements to stop the holes in the frontlines since it was not ready for "the helping hand" of Moscow stretching to Donbas.

So basically Putin has finally decided to win this game and launched a full-scale invasion that he tries to pass off as a maneuver at home?
Several columns of sometimes hundreds of tanks sounds like he'll be in Kiev in a week.

[Gilrandir]

So basically Putin has finally decided to win this game and launched a full-scale invasion that he tries to pass off as a maneuver at home?
Several columns of sometimes hundreds of tanks sounds like he'll be in Kiev in a week.

Having started the game he can't afford to lose or even step back as his image of a Gatherer of Russian lands and Protector of Slavic brotherhood may take a serious blow in Russia. I think so far he is trying to prop DPR so that no reconquista was possible. The separatists' forces are taking their time and are moving slowly from a city to a city leaving no open corridors behind and securing their positions. Holding significant territories is a strong point to negotiate from. Open invasion (at least so open that even you would admit it) is not what he favors so far.

[Kagemusha]

Having started the game he can't afford to lose or even step back as his image of a Gatherer of Russian lands and Protector of Slavic brotherhood may take a serious blow in Russia. I think so far he is trying to prop DPR so that no reconquista was possible. The separatists' forces are taking their time and are moving slowly from a city to a city leaving no open corridors behind and securing their positions. Holding significant territories is a strong point to negotiate from. Open invasion (at least so open that even you would admit it) is not what he favors so far.

My bet is that Putin is trying to turn this into "cold crisis" like Transnistria, so Donetsk and Luhansk will stay nominally part of Ukraine, but gain autonomy, which means they will become de facto Russian zones of control and also can be used in future as political tools if necessary.

If i look at this from other point of view. It could be that Poroshenko is eager to make ceasefire in order to buy time, Once the NATO manouvers will start at Western Ukraine, the tones of Ukrainian government might change quite rapidly.

Well lets see if there really will be a ceasefire or not.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Then they should just release it and not take their sweet time to fabricate it.

So it's fabricated now? As well as unreliable?

Please - the intel they have shared is not definitive, the definitive stuff is classified. They're saying that "these are Russian tanks" and showing you the tanks in Ukraine - the high-end stuff that proves they're Russians tanks will remain classified.

Even if it does, only an injection of Russian regulars can explain the reversal on the verge of a rebel defeat.

I'm not a morning coffee person even though I take very long to wake up. It seems quite strange that Putin would send barely enough tanks to let the Ukrainian government win very slowly. And Russian army tankers have to be very suicidal to go there in outdated tanks as cannon fodder for no good reason other than to troll the Ukrainian government a bit. Makes you wonder why Putin's approval rating is so high when he just sends people slowly into a meatgrinder. And you are conversely saying that the Ukrainian army had no bases and/or lost no units or vehicles in Eastern Ukraine?

The majority of Ukraine's hardware is in the West, that's why it took them so long to deploy against the rebels, there aren't enough units and depots in the East to explain the weight of rebel armour at this point.

As to Putin's approval rating - the Tsar is fighting the evil Fascists, of course he's popular.

As to a meat grinder - Putin has showed repeatedly that he does not care for individual Russian lives, only Mother Russia.

Stop pretending he's Westernised or a Democrat just because he wears nice jackets.

[Kagemusha]

So it's fabricated now? As well as unreliable?

Please - the intel they have shared is not definitive, the definitive stuff is classified. They're saying that "these are Russian tanks" and showing you the tanks in Ukraine - the high-end stuff that proves they're Russians tanks will remain classified.

Even if it does, only an injection of Russian regulars can explain the reversal on the verge of a rebel defeat.

I have to disagree with you concerning the Russian equipment injected to Ukraine. It is not high end Russian equipment mostly, but their basic equipment. Russia has 4000 - 4500 T-72B variants in service that fit the description of the tanks spotted deployed at Ukraine. 2500 pcs of BM-21 Grad MRLS systems. More then 1100 BTR-80 Wheeled APC´s. 8500 BMP-2 IFV´s. These are some of the vehicles spotted in Ukraine.

About the actual force. There is no way telling as of this moment how the actual separatist force is composed of. I dont think that injection of regular Russian soldiers into Ukraine is the only explanation on the reversal of the separatist fortunes. In my opinion getting more heavy equipment was far more important and what we know from the news. The level of professionalism and equipment of the forces fighting at Eastern Ukraine compared to ones monitored earlier at Crimea is not similar.

Either the Russian soldiers are conscripts forced to fight in Ukraine, or mix of volunteers, mercs, conscripts, etc, but not hired professionals mostly, which most of Russian standing army today are.Like i earlier said. I am positive that there are Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, but i am not at all convinced that those forces are comprised of entire units of Russian army, at least at this point.

What i am happy about is that the ceasefire has seemed to hold for the first night.

[Brenus]

If the cease-fire hold and the negotiations, it looks that a political neutralisation of Ukraine will be done, success for Putin due to the failure (and arrogance) from the Western Agencies to understand and foresee the process.
It could have been achieved without Ukraine loosing territory and lives by Treaty, even by the Interim Government.

As PVC often said, appeasement doesn’t work, and the multiple times Russia swallowed the pill came to an end.

I hope Ukraine will stay united but I am not optimistic due to my Bosnian Experience and the result of "autonomous" regions which de facto stopped or hampered any move of political reunion.

[Sarmatian]

It certainly seems like Putin wins. If I were Putin, this is where I would stop. Ukraine's destabilized, NATO looks impotent, and his domestic capital is through the roof. Of course, he'll need more crises in the future to keep it going. He might not even be able to keep the cease-fire.

It looks good so far. According to the news agency at least, both sides respect the cease-fire. From here they can move to political solutions.

[Kagemusha]

It certainly seems like Putin wins. If I were Putin, this is where I would stop. Ukraine's destabilized, NATO looks impotent, and his domestic capital is through the roof. Of course, he'll need more crises in the future to keep it going. He might not even be able to keep the cease-fire.

I dont think it is more conflicts Putin is looking for. He is neither stupid nor suicidal, so Russia will not be next stirring conflict at Baltics like many Western hawks wish to believe.

The last non aligned Western neighbours Russia have at West are Finland and Sweden and we dont have any significant Russian minority to use for stirring up a conflict. If Russia were just to invade us in conventional sense without any casus belli. They would have hell to pay. No i think Putin will look next into other things.

My bet is that next Russia will concentrate their efforts and new found prestige in developing SCO into a real balancing factor compared to NATO. Now this is not something Russia can ram through as China is maybe the dominant partner in that organisations and it is up to China do they want distance themselves from the West or not.

In any case so far what this crisis has thought is that it has been made clear to West that Russia´s days of endless bending over are in the past and that Europe and US need to rethink their defense doctrines and military organisations. Conventional war has not disappeared like many defense analyst have been rambling for the past decade and West has to be ready for one, like East already is.

[Pannonian]

I dont think it is more conflicts Putin is looking for. He is neither stupid nor suicidal, so Russia will not be next stirring conflict at Baltics like many Western hawks wish to believe.

The last non aligned Western neighbours Russia have at West are Finland and Sweden and we dont have any significant Russian minority to use for stirring up a conflict. If Russia were just to invade us in conventional sense without any casus belli. They would have hell to pay. No i think Putin will look next into other things.

My bet is that next Russia will concentrate their efforts and new found prestige in developing SCO into a real balancing factor compared to NATO. Now this is not something Russia can ram through as China is maybe the dominant partner in that organisations and it is up to China do they want distance themselves from the West or not.

In any case so far what this crisis has thought is that it has been made clear to West that Russia´s days of endless bending over are in the past and that Europe and US need to rethink their defense doctrines and military organisations. Conventional war has not disappeared like many defense analyst have been rambling for the past decade and West has to be ready for one, like East already is.

One of our problems, a problem common to the victors of WWII who've not really had to deal with any serious reverses since, is our political dialectic. We're always hankering for the certainties of WWII where we were the good guys standing for freedom and democracy, and we were victorious. So every foreign situation gets turned into some variant of WWII, and the solution is to repeat what we did in WWII and we'll naturally get the same result.

[Gilrandir]

I have to disagree with you concerning the Russian equipment injected to Ukraine. It is not high end Russian equipment mostly, but their basic equipment. Russia has 4000 - 4500 T-72B variants in service that fit the description of the tanks spotted deployed at Ukraine. 2500 pcs of BM-21 Grad MRLS systems. More then 1100 BTR-80 Wheeled APC´s. 8500 BMP-2 IFV´s. These are some of the vehicles spotted in Ukraine.

I have to repeat what PVC said just now and what I said way back: Ukraine doesn't have such numbers of military vehicles in the East since most of such units were leftovers from the Soviet times stationed in the western part of the country to fend off the possible threat from NATO. Even if we admit any significant number of them in Donbas, what about fuel and ammo? Once captured (which I greatly doubt as I said), the tanks could be operated for quite a time only if they have enough of those. Are fuel and ammo captured constantly from the Ukrainian military to keep the vehicles going for three months? In this case Ukraine supplies the separatists better than its own army.

In my opinion getting more heavy equipment was far more important and what we know from the news.

So battered and barely-trained local laymen learned to use this heavy equipment overnight and immediately started a victorious offensive?

Either the Russian soldiers are conscripts forced to fight in Ukraine, or mix of volunteers, mercs, conscripts, etc, but not hired professionals mostly, which most of Russian standing army today are.Like i earlier said. I am positive that there are Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, but i am not at all convinced that those forces are comprised of entire units of Russian army, at least at this point.

Ukrainian soldiers who escaped from the Ilovaysk trap said that they had been negotiating about the corridor to escape with Russian officers in charge of a paratroop division (they mentioned the number of it but I don't remember it now) and those officers interrupted the parley quite often to consult someone (evidently from higher up) and only then agreed to some terms giving the word of a Russian officer that Ukrainians will be let through. Ukrainians had some Russian captives (about 20 regular army soldiers) who were to be set free as soon as the column was out of Ilovaysk. The moment Ukrainains formed the column shelling from everywhere started and the remains of it scattered about the vicinity. Russian captives were evidently killed by the first volleys as they were placed in vehicles at the head of the column.
One more thing about Russain regular army soldiers fighting in Ukraine: yesterday I saw a footage on one of Russia's federal TV channels about such soldier's funeral. Even they admitted that he was a paratrooper who was killed in Donbas, but they took pains to emphasize that before leaving for Ukraine he took a vacation from his unit, so neither his family nor top officers of it knew where he went. This story reminded to me a practice usual for Russia: whenever a policeman committed a felony which was impossible to hide, media said that he was a policeman, but the day before the crime he was fired (or quit his job, as an option).
The Russain facebook group I spoke about claims that Russain conscripts are often foced to sign a contract to be later sent anywhere the government wants, and contracted soldiers are forced to take vacations, paid 200 000 roubles cash down and promised as much monthly and then sent to Donbas.

My bet is that Putin is trying to turn this into "cold crisis" like Transnistria, so Donetsk and Luhansk will stay nominally part of Ukraine, but gain autonomy, which means they will become de facto Russian zones of control and also can be used in future as political tools if necessary.

The question is what the borders of these quasi-state are going to be. The separatists are pushing into those places which never had any desire to separate and never proclaimed any DPR or LPR (northern Luhansk region) or where DPR sojourn was brief and unpopular (Mariupol). I think that Novorossia format (rather than DPR or LPR) introduced by Putin in his spring speech (only after it this nomen was used by the separatists) allows them to claim and consequently invade territories far beyond Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russia's national game is chess, not poker. Putin doesn't expect to bluff for the win, nor is he thinking of a showdown. You exploit an opening then consolidate before advancing the game.

[Viking]

He is neither stupid nor suicidal, so Russia will not be next stirring conflict at Baltics like many Western hawks wish to believe.

Dunno, dunno..

Eston Kohver, an Estonian intelligence officer who was, according to Estonia, abducted and taken across the border to Russia yesterday, has appeared in Moscow, where is being detained. The Estonian authorities reported that smoke grenades were used and that there were signs of a violent struggle. In addition, it was reported that communications signals in the area were jammed at the time of the reported abduction.

Meanwhile the FSB claimed yesterday that Kohver had been arrested on Russian territory, in the Pskov region.

Odd timing.

[Gilrandir]

Odd timing.

The Nadia Savchenko style.
http://www.rferl.org/content/savchen.../25452738.html

[Kagemusha]

Dunno, dunno..



Odd timing.

I knew about that when i made my earlier post. Its nothing in military sense of things. The fact remains in the current reality we live in. Nuclear armed coalitions or nations do not wage war until the time comes when the deterrent can be nullified.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I knew about that when i made my earlier post. Its nothing in military sense of things. The fact remains in the current reality we live in. Nuclear armed coalitions or nations do not wage war until the time comes when the deterrent can be nullified.

The next logical escalation after Ukraine (having already crippled Georgia) is to destabilise the Baltics. Doing so will tie NATO down much more effectively than crippling Ukraine.

As to Russian regulars, I myself think they're small units, probably companies of contract soldiers drawn from larger formations (those formations actually being on exercises).

I think a relatively small spearhead of Russian tanks and paratroopers would allow the rebels to make large gains as they have. An injection of regulars would unbalance the Ukrainians, changing the nature of the conflict and escalating it in a way that Ukraine was not ready for.

The big worry, though, is that Ukraine is going to start running out of munitions and spares - although the country has its own military manufacturing sector it's unlikely it has huge stockpiles of supplies to maintain a shooting war, given its poor economic performance over the last few years and rampant corruption.

As noted by others, it's unlike the Ukrainians have enough gear lying around in the East to keep the rebels supplied, they probably can't keep themselves supplied. Poland and the other former Warsaw Pact countries may have some reserves of what Urkaine needs, but they can't give it until NATO moves to support Ukraine militarily, and they've been moving over to NATO gear so their own stockpiles probably aren't huge.

All of which is to say that Putin just has to keep the rebels supplied long enough to out-last the Ukrainian army.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Obviously, we just need to take the money for Social Security and make a giant Iron Dome over all of Western Europe.

Cameron will chip in and just say it is to keep out muslims.

[Gilrandir]

Russia's national game is chess, not poker.

Wrong!!! Russia's national game is World of tanks.

[Husar]

Wrong!!! Russia's national game is World of tanks.

Love that game, those Russians know what's good.

[Viking]

I knew about that when i made my earlier post. Its nothing in military sense of things. The fact remains in the current reality we live in. Nuclear armed coalitions or nations do not wage war until the time comes when the deterrent can be nullified.

You got to start somewhere in order to escalate gradually. That's the potential I am looking at.

[Sarmatian]

Love that game, those Russians know what's good.

Actually, it's made by a team from Belarus.

[Husar]

Actually, it's made by a team from Belarus.

I am aware of that, but we were not talking about the people who make it, but the people who enjoy it, and they are mostly Russians. Russia is the game's core market.

[Tuuvi]

It's only a matter of time before Belarus starts longing for the Motherland anyway, so it's not like there's much of a difference.

[Brenus]

Naahh, it will be an orange revolution and it will join NATO.

[Sarmatian]

I am aware of that, but we were not talking about the people who make it, but the people who enjoy it, and they are mostly Russians. Russia is the game's core market.

That's because Putin encourages them to play. It's a part of his secret plan to have people trained in tank warfare when he declares war on western Europe and enacts mass mobilization.