Bye bye, Britain

[Beskar]

Logistical-wise. Rotterdam is the only harbour that is efficiecent enough to ship raw materials, and the only harbour that can take the mammoths. From Rotterdam our waterways go to Germany, as well as the railroads.

Looking at the figures, Fragony is correct. Rotterdam is very significant, with Antwerp second with under half. Then 3rd is Hamburg which is a 4th. Amsterdam is 4th on the list for tonnage, but it is not a container port.

However, there is a little flaw in Fragony's theory and that is if the Netherlands leave the EU, the EU would not use its ports. Simply because the Netherlands has to make its money from somewhere for its ports and I don't think they will turn down German cash.

If Netherlands didn't play ball, then it would be as HoreTore suggests, it would be financially worthwhile to create another or expand Hamburg.

[Fragony]

Looking at the figures, Fragony is correct. Rotterdam is very significant, with Antwerp second with under half. Then 3rd is Hamburg which is a 4th. Amsterdam is 4th on the list for tonnage, but it is not a container port.

However, there is a little flaw in Fragony's theory and that is if the Netherlands leave the EU, the EU would not use its ports. Simply because the Netherlands has to make its money from somewhere for its ports and I don't think they will turn down German cash.

If Netherlands didn't play ball, then it would be as HoreTore suggests, it would be financially worthwhile to create another or expand Hamburg.

Expanding Hamburg won't do any good, it still won't be able to process as much, big ships simply can't get there. Iam sure we can make an arrangement with Germany without having to put up with the EU.

[Franconicus]

Sure, I do not see any problem to make an arrangement. The Netherlands need the trade via Rotterdam and Amsterdam and it is also beneficial for Germany. This would work regardless if the Dutch are in or out of the Union. But I cannot see how Germany could not function w/o these harbors???

Regarding the USA: I always wondered if I heard Brits (English or Scottish) talking about Americans. They all seem to think those are barbarians with nuke. Guess the Brits hate them more then the Europeans.
I think the British politic is already very American. Economic ideals are similar and the it seems as if the British foreign ministers do not make any step before asking their big brother. Looking at the spy programs it seems as if they also have the same view on human rights.
However I do not think that the US would led England in. Why change things? GB has a similar status as Puerto Rico. It follows the orders of the US government, has no right to vote for Congress or President but has the priviledge to keep the Queen.

[Fragony]

Sure, I do not see any problem to make an arrangement. The Netherlands need the trade via Rotterdam and Amsterdam and it is also beneficial for Germany. This would work regardless if the Dutch are in or out of the Union. But I cannot see how Germany could not function w/o these harbors???

You would be out of rescources for production. Rotterdam is is the gateway to your industry. All European harbours combined can't outdo Rotterdam, unloading isn't everything, it also has to be moved from there. We are in a pretty comfortable position if we say adieu to Brussels. What do you suggest you can do otherwise, making your harbours ready for the same capacity? Good luck digging to make the waterways and harbours ready. Ships need to be loaded as well where they are comming from, smaller ships, prices ^

[caravel]

Cameron and Co. have no intention of leaving the EU and simply can't do it, referendum or not as it would be suicidal. This is just the same old Tory party paying lip service to the Daily Mail reading "Little Englanders" in the home counties... it's the usual case of blowing some ideological hot air on the run up to the next election.

[Fragony]

Cameron and Co. have no intention of leaving the EU and simply can't do it, referendum or not as it would be suicidal. This is just the same old Tory party paying lip service to the Daily Mail reading "Little Englanders" in the home counties... it's the usual case of blowing some ideological hot air on the run up to the next election.

Could be, we will see. But here in the Netherlands in the polls at least the party's that want out are the biggest ones, the socialist party and the freedom party. They both are subject to a cordon sanitaire, they are both persona non grata in the establishment and they won't get along very soon, but the mix of different party's the establishment will have to make up to form a government is getting kinda hilarious. If we pull out the plug it's the end of the EU. And that is absolutily not an unthinkable scenario.

[Brenus]

If you want to upset a UKIP anti-European English you just have to agree with him. It works every time. As French, it is even better. I agree on all, they are not European, they are not part of European Culture, they are an island, even they have more links with Australia and New-Zealand and the Commonwealth and they are the best friend of the USA. It is really something to see their face going down as they realise it. I can’t stop to laugh (inside) as I have to keep my face straight.
As UK going out of the EU, Cameron’s masters won’t allowed it as the biggest market is EU, not China, not the USA. The only use of England for the markets is England is the gate to Europe. If UK leaves the EU and suddenly need passport, Amsterdam or Paris will become the hub of Europe. If the City can’t works freely within the EU, the City dies.
Cameron tries to convince he can have new deal with the countries members of the EU and rules can be different if you are out: lies. Without England, the rules will be decided then England will have to comply if she wants to trade with the EU. Simple example, the EU can decide that the English cars, having the driving wheel the wrong side, are dangerous on the EU roads. That kills immediately all European Tourism from England to EU. UK can try to retaliate, that kill the European Tourism in England. It is a loose/ loose situation.

[Tellos Athenaios]

In the short term Germany does not have any option but to use the Dutch ports. The short term being in the region of 10 to 50 years, because at the scale differences we are considering you need about 50 or so years to "buy" your way out of your supply issues, quite possibly more. Rotterdam is currently going through a major upgrade that has been in the works for the better part of my life now, to give you an idea of the timetables. Hamburg and Bremen are simply not anywhere near that scale right now -- especially considering that Germany already needs those two today to keep the goods flowing. This goes for both raw bulk materials for industry and finished products (Rotterdam) and foodstuffs (Amsterdam).

However that is not a relevant question or indeed metric by which to gauge whether or not it makes sense for the Netherlands to say bye bye. The flip side is that the Dutch economy is far, far larger than just the relatively small margins made by those two ports. (In fact that is their entire raison d' être: to be cheaper than the Germans and the Belgians.) Agriculture (feeding Germans), industry (producing raw materials for Germany, like diesel and petrol), embedded systems (embedded in German products), banking (making German lifes more miserable) etc. etc. are fairly big slices of pie too.

On the whole the Dutch economy is largely an extension of the German one at this point. Which is why you can take German consumer spending as a proxy for economic growth in the Netherlands. Which is also why it's not such a brilliant idea to artificially impose trading barriers and tariffs and other unnecessary nonsense over some vague notion of being ruled by Germans despite it really being our own local muppets doing the damage.

Much the same applies to Britain, except that British lawyers have lately figured out that things like the ECHR can be quite useful if they are in certain cases defending against overbearing government. Which the UK happens to have a lot of. By the by, the ECHR which other Brits then like to complain about is not a case of the EU imposing anything on anyone. It's 1950's stuff (the EU dates only to 1996), and membership is held by countries outside of the EU as well (such as Russia). In the case of Britain the government happens not to like those human rights very much if they get in the way of imposing more laws, but government is not quite willing to just ignore the ECHR.

Relevant: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/i...-2014011482542

As for the UK, in my opinion they should simply decide whether they want to be "in" or "out". "In" like any other EU country or "out" like any other not-EU country. This half hearted exception-riddled compromise we have now is simply not scalable. If Britain wans the trading benefits but does not want anything to do with EU laws, they could opt to take the Swiss or Norse approach. That is closer to the trading bloc of their addled memories viewed through their rosy tinted glasses they seem to yearn for. It also means to give up their say on quite a large range of law and simply following what the EU decides to do in many cases.