Should NATO be folded in favor of a European Union unified command?

[Hax]

I think Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be somewhat worried if NATO broke up.

Poland is somewhat too much EU-back garden for Russia to dare attack anytime soon though.

This.

The situation in Ukraine spells trouble for the Baltic states, whose relationship with Russia have been strained since the break-up of the Soviet Union; if the Russian government is able to invade other countries on the pretext of "defending the Russian minority", then I worry thinking about cities like Daugavpils (Latvia) or Narva Estonia). Although I'm skeptical of Russia's interest in the Baltic states (they're not too strategically important anymore), there has been an increasing tendency in the Russian government to expand its influence.

[Kadagar_AV]

This.

The situation in Ukraine spells trouble for the Baltic states, whose relationship with Russia have been strained since the break-up of the Soviet Union; if the Russian government is able to invade other countries on the pretext of "defending the Russian minority", then I worry thinking about cities like Daugavpils (Latvia) or Narva Estonia). Although I'm skeptical of Russia's interest in the Baltic states (they're not too strategically important anymore), there has been an increasing tendency in the Russian government to expand its influence.

I don't know if I read you right, but I honestly give it a snowballs chance in hell that Putin will mess with NATO countries.

Putin might be many things, but stupid isn't among them.

[rvg]

I don't know if I read you right, but I honestly give it a snowballs chance in hell that Putin will mess with NATO countries.

Putin might be many things, but stupid isn't among them.

In FotS a general that gets more command stars than the Daimyo receives a "Delusions of Grandeur" vice. I'm starting to think that Putin has it. He is becoming too much of a loose cannon imho.

[Kadagar_AV]

In FotS a general that gets more stars than the Daimyo receives a "Delusions of Grandeur" vice. I'm starting to think that Putin has it. He is becoming too much of a loose cannon imho.

Only, he IS the Shogun of his Empire. As well as, you know, the Emperor, or Tsar as he would be known over there.

I, for one, think they should just crown Putin Tsar, give him a ****load of estates, and then turn their eyes towards democracy. But that's just silly ol' me

[Hax]

I don't know if I read you right, but I honestly give it a snowballs chance in hell that Putin will mess with NATO countries.

Putin might be many things, but stupid isn't among them.

I'm torn on this.

I agree that Putin is no fool, but sometimes I get the impression that he's somewhat in a tight spot. I understand that he has lost a lot of face in Russia, and I think he would go to great lengths to stay in power. No, I don't see him starting a full-blown invasion of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, but he (or someone else) could use the pretext of riots in the Baltic states to justify a military presence in certain locations ("to protect the Russian minority"), then by demanding a certain quota of Russian representatives in parliament, a certain quota of Russian bureaucrats, the elevation of Russian as an official language, etc, etc. It's not an invasion that I fear, but a slippery slope.

If the Baltic countries were attacked today the US would do nothing about it. NATO treaty or not, the US citizens couldn't find Estonia on a map and, like when chemical weapons were used on people and never disposed of, the current admin found any excuse it could to wash its hands of the situation. That has worked out extremely well.

Maybe the U.S. wouldn't interfere directly, but I hardly think that an invasion of the Baltic states would go unnoticed by countries such as Poland or Finland, who would most likely pressure the individual European Union states into a conflict with Russia. Of course, maybe not Finland, we all know what happened the last time when Russia tried to invade them.


EDIT: To illustrate the current issues of Baltic-Russian relations, a few years ago there were huge riots in certain parts of Tallinn after the Estonian government decided to remove a statue commemorating Soviet soldiers; this also led to some strong comments from Russian officials, in which the Estonian president, prime minister, and minister of foreign affairs were called nazis. The fact that there are several marches throughout the Baltic states that honour Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian soldiers who served in Nazi regiments has also set some bad blood. Very recently, the Latvian minister of environment was sacked over this. Throughout the Baltic states, Nazi Germany was initially hailed as a liberator from the Soviet Union (additionally, the Nazis were a bit vague over possible independence after the war, whereas the Baltic states were completely annexed by the Soviets). After a few years of course, most of the people figured out there weren't any differences between the two, and the Nazis lost a lot of sympathy. However, unlike in Western Europe, the Soviet Union has left traces that are so strong and so recent, that it would be nothing short of miraculous if people would just gloss over it (my girlfriends family, for example, was deported to Siberia).

tl;dr: there is a lot of bad blood between Russia and the Baltic states, which is sorta understandable on both sides.

[Kadagar_AV]

I'm torn on this.

I agree that Putin is no fool, but sometimes I get the impression that he's somewhat in a tight spot. I understand that he has lost a lot of face in Russia, and I think he would go to great lengths to stay in power. No, I don't see him starting a full-blown invasion of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, but he (or someone else) could use the pretext of riots in the Baltic states to justify a military presence in certain locations ("to protect the Russian minority"), then by demanding a certain quota of Russian representatives in parliament, a certain quota of Russian bureaucrats, the elevation of Russian as an official language, etc, etc. It's not an invasion that I fear, but a slippery slope.



Maybe the U.S. wouldn't interfere directly, but I hardly think that an invasion of the Baltic states would go unnoticed by countries such as Poland or Finland, who would most likely pressure the individual European Union states into a conflict with Russia. Of course, maybe not Finland, we all know what happened the last time when Russia tried to invade them.

Some intelligent poster above (forgot who) brightly stated that the Russians want to see themselves as the good guys, just like we do in the West.

If for no other reasons: Russia can't win the media war if invading, or even trying to stir up, the Baltic States. This is not the Ukrain/Georgian backwaters we are talking about, that most people assume belong to Russia anyway. This is developed NATO members with LOADS of political and cultural ties to NATO-member states, and the West at large.

Heck, every second farmer in Sweden have a Latvian wife by now.

[Hax]

Maybe.

But 100% of Russian Estonians in Tallinn, and 1/3rd of the Latvian population agree with Russia's course of action in Ukraine. And then there's the mayor of Tallinn, Edgar Savisaar, who makes no real secret of his proximity to the Russian government. Hell, only six MPs of twenty-one of his party (Keskerakond) signed a letter expressing sympathies to Ukraine, and that itself caused a small riot in Keskerakond (his party).

Also I can't believe it, the Baltic states are relevant for once.

[rvg]

Maybe.

But 100% of Russian Estonians in Tallinn, and 1/3rd of the Latvian population agree with Russia's course of action in Ukraine. And then there's the mayor of Tallinn, Edgar Savisaar, who makes no real secret of his proximity to the Russian government. Hell, only six MPs of twenty-one of his party (Keskerakond) signed a letter expressing sympathies to Ukraine, and that itself caused a small riot in Keskerakond (his party).

Also I can't believe it, the Baltic states are relevant for once.

I wonder if the local Russians there are also eager to be absorbed into the empire.

[Kadagar_AV]

Also I can't believe it, the Baltic states are relevant for once.

Yeah, that's why Sweden decided to place as many as 2 (TWO!!) fighter jets on Gotland.

You know, if the first one doesn't keep the Russian Bear at bay, we have a plan(e) to fall back on.

[rvg]

He's watching...