Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
Or, we might possibly consider that - and this is definitely a stretch - Russian involvement will not materially affect the situation on the ground and no grand aims will be met, nor sea changes effected, in any short period of time, for any state, organization, or faction with a stake in the events.

Gaddafi well quickly once the rebels had the backing of NATO Air-Power. How much easier will it be for the Syrian army (a trained force) to crush the disparate rebels with Russian Air-Power, especially given that the Russians will be even less discriminating in their targets than the Americans.

IS is the hardest nut to crap and it being somewhat suppressed by NATO, even then they have made gains, whilst Assad's ability to deal with the other rebels has been hampered by NATO.

I believe Russia can tip that balance, and already has.

Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
¿Qué?

How does one follow from the other?
Wouldn't you be happy if Putin wins and the evil people from Syria who don't belong here are contained by Assad once again?
And how does an Assad in control over Syria lead to war in central Europe? Sometimes I get the impression you just can't wait to see a glorious war in central Europe.
Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
Well, that's not quite it.

PVC has said many times that would love to participate in a new European war, despite not being a "war-lover".

His his conviction in the inevitability of such a war doesn't come from his desire to participate, or vice-versa, but in the underlying personality and belief-set that bring him the auguries.
My belief there will be a new war in Central Europe is based on four factors.

1. Putin considers "the West" the enemy of Russia, both ideologically and economically. This affects his perception of the West's actions and motivations. For a microcosm of that consider that Idaho described my views as "repugnant" because I don't support the attacks the Left have levelled at Cameron over Tragedy-gate. He has interpreted that as support for Cameron and then labelled be "Tory Scum" although he hasn't used the word yet.

2. Western inaction over Ukraine and Syria has led Putin to believe that the West is weak willed, conversely the Western belief that Putin was "reasonable" led us to suppose he would not start a new war in Europe, but in fact he confounded our expectations. If our expectations of Putin's actions are wrong and vice versa this greatly increases the likelihood of a military miss-step which will be misinterpreted by the other side and lead to war.

3. Putin has designs on certain countries within the EU in NATO, specifically the Baltics and the Warsaw Pact nations - he sees their joining the EU and NATO as a "betrayal" by the Western Great Powers rather than attributing their alignment to an internal desire to distance themselves from Russia and cleave to the West. In Putin's mind this must be a Western Plot.

4. Putin is already fighting an illegal and undeclared war in Ukraine and he is now engaged in a game of Brinkmanship with the NATO Bloc, if he is not checked he will believe he can escalate, and the more he escalates the more likely "checking" him will actually involve open warfare.

As to my "love" of war - I've just been more honest that most men and admitted that a part of me finds the prospect thrilling - but a part of me finds the prospect of jumping off a cliff without a parachute thrilling too. I don't think either is a good idea, or morally defensible.