ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

[Gilrandir]

“So when you see a difference in appearence between a Chinese and a black it is racism? I applaud your value scale.” And I applaud your total ignorance: To be Chinese is to be a citizen of China (nationality), when to be black is part of skin coloration due to biology. They are blond and blue eyes Chinese, someone told me.

So the Chinese and the blacks aren't any different to look at? If they are one can tell the one from the other. And that is what I claimed.

“RUSSIA'S DOUBTFUL LIKELIHOOD TO HAVE A COMLETE MILITARY VICTORY IN HOT MOUNTAINEOUS COUNTRY POPULATED BY HOSTILE MUSLIMS, not about civil wars between the locals.” Ooh, I didn’t know that ISIL was in complete agreement with the Kurds, the Alawits and others Arab populations or Christians minority (Syro-Chaldean).

Russia claims it is at war EXCLUSIVELY with ISIS.

“You may not be aware that the population of Ukraine is pretty much racially homogeneous (is is racism yet?)”: There is only one human race, so per definition, all humans are racially homogenous… So, to answer your question, to artificially create differences within the human race is racism.

Nitpicking at terms used in their broad and narrow sense. In the latter, I'm afarid, those outward differences have been already created. By God/nature/Aliens. So in your terms they were the first racists.

“ The success of the Soviet army boiled down to holding strategic locations (mainly cities and some mountains controlling the roads). Elsewhere was the domain of the guerillas.” So, the Russians and their allies had (controlled) the rich towns and valleys and the Guerrillas controlled the barren rocks…

and afflicted them in any way they could so that the Soviets had to always be on their guard and didn't feel secure outside their strongholds (and sometimes within them).

“Being successful (as you and others claim) they eventually legged it.” As you pointed out, that was not the debate, but your claim that Russia couldn’t win against ISIL as show by their military defeat in Afghanistan. So case closed as you agree they were not, in fact, defeated.

Legged it =/= won. Quite the contrary.

“This is what I argue is likely to happen to Russians in Syria.” That is not impossible indeed, but even Yahoo had to agree that the Syrian Army had retaken some village, and Hezbollah is preparing for major offensive against ISIL, thanks to Russian bombing campaign. So, it is possible that Russia did play well.

So far it did. As well as at the initial stage of their Afghanistan adventure. But there (as well as in Syria) at this stage was also only airstrikes. Like I said: let's wait for Putin to engage his infantry. And my arguments about the deplorable outcome of such a choice referred only to the consequences of THIS VERY CHOICE. Otherwise they can bomb indefinitely. It will not change the situation drastically. Like Hitler was bombing Britain for several years, but it didn't get him any closer to subduing it, rather the contrary - infuriated the locals and confirmed them in their decision to weather it no matter what.

[Sarmatian]

Airforce on its own can't do much. In coordination with ground troops, that changes.

There's Syrian army, there's Iran, there's Hezbollah. Proper coordination of those three with Russian air support means ISIS doesn't stand a chance.

[Gilrandir]

Airforce on its own can't do much. In coordination with ground troops, that changes.

There's Syrian army, there's Iran, there's Hezbollah. Proper coordination of those three with Russian air support means ISIS doesn't stand a chance.

We'll see. But to my mind the problem is not to defeat ISIS in Syria military-wise, but to hold the victory. And that seems more problematic when the neighboring countries offer ISIS a chance to withdraw and come back with a vengeance.

[Sarmatian]

We'll see. But to my mind the problem is not to defeat ISIS in Syria military-wise, but to hold the victory. And that seems more problematic when the neighboring countries offer ISIS a chance to withdraw and come back with a vengeance.

The only neighbouring country that could do that is Turkey, and it's a stretch.

Holding the victory wouldn't be a problem as ISIS is the only significant force in the area in opposition to Assad. Kurds are a potential problem but that's a different kind of problem.

[Tuuvi]

The only neighbouring country that could do that is Turkey, and it's a stretch.

Holding the victory wouldn't be a problem as ISIS is the only significant force in the area in opposition to Assad. Kurds are a potential problem but that's a different kind of problem.

I don't think this is true, the rebels are extremely fractured and don't hold as much territory as ISIS does but they are still a major force. According Wikipedia the FSA has between 40-50 thousand fighters, the Islamic Front has between 40-70 thousand, and there are several other smaller rebel factions. ISIS has between 31,500 to 100 thousand fighters. And according this map, the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

[rvg]

...the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

Yeah, they're pretty good at depopulating controlled territory.

[AE Bravo]

Thought this was interesting: https://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-con...-version11.pdf

Skip the beginning the good stuff is omitted. Page 5 - C is where it's at. Should be common knowledge now, just found it surprising myself.

[Sarmatian]

I don't think this is true, the rebels are extremely fractured and don't hold as much territory as ISIS does but they are still a major force. According Wikipedia the FSA has between 40-50 thousand fighters, the Islamic Front has between 40-70 thousand, and there are several other smaller rebel factions. ISIS has between 31,500 to 100 thousand fighters. And according this map, the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

1) You need to be aware how many population centers and strategic areas they are actually in control of.
2) Those are all various rebel groups put together. There are dozens of them and they very often aren't friendly to each other.

[Husar]

Crandar posted an interview in the Backroom video thread a couple weeks ago where the journalist who was actually there says the FSA seems to be a non-factor that is overrated in the West and usually just runs away, so I'm not sure why some people are still somewhat fixated on them. I assume most of the moderate intelligent Syrians are on their way to refugee camps because they don't have a death wish to get involved in this mess. And if they can't decide for a side to support, why should I? I know much less about their country and the people than they do.

If Pegida were to start a civil war against the salafists and the biker gangs and catholic militias got involved while the army split up into supporting Merkel for Chancellor for life and a neo-nazi splinter army, plus a Gerhard Schröder in charge of Cossack mercenaries, I would also rather leave than join any of them even if there were another small faction with similar values to mine.

Which leads me to believe that there still isn't really any good option. The Kurds will be eradicated by Erdogan and may not be so nice after all.
Any rebel group that may have somewhat supportable values is probably too small to win this without sending them the US Marines as backup and the only really strong factions seem to be the proper Syrian army, who now got strong Russian backup and ISIS who are an army of supermen where each of their fighters can make up for ten fighters of any of the other factions (maybe they DO have god's blessing after all?).

There are also allegations (by Kurdish people I guess) that Erdogan is the one selling ISIS' oil for them, so maybe NATO is actually propping up ISIS to take control of the region.
This could also be supported by the fact that the US-led bombing campaign has not managed to stop ISIS yet and there seem to have been no terror attacks on the Muslim countries that are partaking in it. Is ISIS an inside job? How can their fighters be so strong? Am I Glenn Beck or am I just asking the right questions? You may find out in my next post if I decide to write one.

[Tuuvi]

1) You need to be aware how many population centers and strategic areas they are actually in control of.
2) Those are all various rebel groups put together. There are dozens of them and they very often aren't friendly to each other.

I know that, that's why I said the rebels are "extremely fractured" and why I mentioned that there are several other smaller rebel factions. The rebels hold territory just outside of Aleppo and Damascus, they are still a threat to the regime and they are not insignificant. Why do you think the Russian airstrikes have been focusing more on the rebels than on ISIS?

[Husar]

So the Chinese and the blacks aren't any different to look at? If they are one can tell the one from the other. And that is what I claimed.

So you have a blue Ford Focus and a red Ford Focus....
What I'm saying is that your "Chinese" guy is actually Taiwanese, so you failed that one.