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Thread: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

  1. #1321
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Might be bad, Turkey admitted they shot down a Russian jet, but it wasn't flying over Turkish territory. Putin is probably not able to sell a diplomatic solution back home, he would look weak. Bad idea in Russia
    Last edited by Fragony; 11-24-2015 at 10:33.

  2. #1322

    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    After reading about it...I'm still not sure what happened:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983
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  3. #1323
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by HopAlongBunny View Post
    After reading about it...I'm still not sure what happened:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983
    Don't we all. If Russia flew over Turkey Turkey did nothing wrong, If they didn't things are getting even more complicated.

  4. #1324
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    BBC article says the plane was warned about violations of airspace. Reuters article mentions an "official" who said planes were approaching Turkish territory and were given warnings they are getting too close, but also mentions multiple airspace violations.

    Gonna be funny. Turkey has its own interests in Syria. Prop up Sunnis, annex the north where Turkmen live, help everyone (including Al Nusra and ISIS) who fight Assad and Kurds.

  5. #1325
    Part-Time Polemic Senior Member ICantSpellDawg's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Might be bad, Turkey admitted they shot down a Russian jet, but it wasn't flying over Turkish territory. Putin is probably not able to sell a diplomatic solution back home, he would look weak. Bad idea in Russia
    Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

    I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State
    Last edited by ICantSpellDawg; 11-26-2015 at 12:25.
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  6. #1326
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by ICantSpellDawg View Post
    Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

    I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State
    You are probably right, so far only some economic sanctions, not retaliations on the rotaliations on the Turkoman rebels who killed the pilot. Would still be good if Turkey apoligizes though.

  7. #1327
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by ICantSpellDawg View Post
    Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

    I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State
    A year or two ago some predicted he would be marching on Berlin by now, now he can't even take on Turkey.
    Politics are confusing.


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    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    A year or two ago some predicted he would be marching on Berlin by now, now he can't even take on Turkey.
    Politics are confusing.
    Turkey has a rather large and modern military. In a conventional total war, Turkey would stand no chance (even with nukes taken out of the equation), but Russia couldn't take on Turkey painlessly, they would suffer serious casualties, and the funds needed would be quite significant indeed.

  9. #1329
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    Turkey has a rather large and modern military. In a conventional total war, Turkey would stand no chance (even with nukes taken out of the equation), but Russia couldn't take on Turkey painlessly, they would suffer serious casualties, and the funds needed would be quite significant indeed.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...orces#Vehicles

    You mean all those modern Patton tanks would stop them for long?
    Of course they would suffer serious casualties, even the Pattons are not a complete pushover, but I was comparing this to an evasion of the EU, so...


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  10. #1330

    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Turkey stands no chance in what sense? Of not losing the war? That obviously depends on what the political goals are for the participants. Of not being conquered? Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.
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  11. #1331
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.
    Or Luxembourg and Monaco, much easier.


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  12. #1332
    Strategist and Storyteller Senior Member Myth's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Turkey stands no chance in what sense? Of not losing the war? That obviously depends on what the political goals are for the participants. Of not being conquered? Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.
    Conquering Finland might not be that hard now that they could attempt it with combined arms rather than just millions of poorly trained and ill equipped foot soldiers conscripted from the rural areas. Running these poor sods at the Mannertheim line with the NKVD behind their backs was comrade Stalin's way to do it. It's like whipping a bunch of kindergarteners untill they can pull a truck up a hill. Enough kindergarteners and enough whipping and it can probably happen.

    Now though that land connection to Finland and the improved infrastructure on it would mean that Russia will have an easy time to provide logistics for its tanks, artillery, airforce and so on. Oh, and modern day missile cruisers will cause heaps of trouble for the finns as well.

    In the case of a 1v1 war between Russia and Turkey where nukes are banned I don't see how anyone can favour Turkey. The Russians can have a safe route through Georgia (Russian-Georgian relations are pretty warm) and just roll over Turkey. Alternatively they can gather their fleet and choke Istanbul out. It will be harder to land troops through the Black Sea or to get permission to pass through Romania and Bulgaria. But it's possible.
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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Myth View Post
    The Russians can have a safe route through Georgia (Russian-Georgian relations are pretty warm) and just roll over Turkey.
    I think you are misinterpreting the character of relations between Georgia and Russia. After 2008 war and losing its territories Georgia will never allow any passage of the Russian military in spite of the fact that the new president is pre-disposed towards Russia. He would face popular dissatisfaction (to put it mildly). Besides, for a massive land operation Russia will need quite a time for passing through Georgia and, most importantly, KEEPING THAT ROAD OPEN for even longer time what with the purpose of bringing in reinforcements and withdrawing the wounded and suppying the fielded armies. The longer the road through Georgia is open, the greater is the likelihood of popular discontent (even if the Georgian president is lenient) and still greater is the likelihood that Turkey would try to stop that corridor by using its aiforce, which Georgia (both in the meaning "the people" and "the authorities") would not relish. So land operation via Georgia is out of question for Russia.

    Quote Originally Posted by Myth View Post
    Alternatively they can gather their fleet and choke Istanbul out.
    Those rusty tubs? I would advise you to find a video from the Russian fleet military parade in Sevastopol this year. You will see how effective that navy is.

    Besides, I guess that Turkey has its own fleet (and a more modern one) in the Black Sea which will offer its resistance. And don't forget the NATO support in case Turkey is openly attacked.

    Quote Originally Posted by Myth View Post
    It will be harder to land troops through the Black Sea
    Landing troops will mean introducing isolated detachments which will be forced to act without the hope of reinforcements or supplies in the hostile environment. Any Turkish territory is not Donbas or the Crimea,so it will be sheer waste of manpower. Not that Putin would mind it much, though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...orces#Vehicles

    You mean all those modern Patton tanks would stop them for long?
    Of course they would suffer serious casualties, even the Pattons are not a complete pushover, but I was comparing this to an evasion of the EU, so...
    No, he means the 750 Leopard I and II tanks.

    Turkey has more Leopard II tanks than Germany.

    Also, unlike the Germans, the Turks mean business and any Russian invasion would be made to suffer as much as possible - no punches would be pulled.
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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    No, he means the 750 Leopard I and II tanks.

    Turkey has more Leopard II tanks than Germany.

    Also, unlike the Germans, the Turks mean business and any Russian invasion would be made to suffer as much as possible - no punches would be pulled.
    That's ridiculous....

    How is the Leopard 1 modern? Their Leopard 2 are only like 30 or 40 more than Germany has and the A4 standard is not entirely new either, the A5 was introduced in the early 90s...
    Not to forget that Germany would not be the only country they'd have to face when invading Europe.
    Even if I take your comment about the Germans not meaning business seriously, the glorious British would obviously bravely send their superior tanks and singlehandedly beat back the evil red flood, so there, invading Turkey is much easier...


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    Part-Time Polemic Senior Member ICantSpellDawg's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO.

    Remember, the US couldn't defeat Vietnam.
    Last edited by ICantSpellDawg; 11-28-2015 at 00:37.
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    That's ridiculous....

    How is the Leopard 1 modern? Their Leopard 2 are only like 30 or 40 more than Germany has and the A4 standard is not entirely new either, the A5 was introduced in the early 90s...
    Not to forget that Germany would not be the only country they'd have to face when invading Europe.
    Even if I take your comment about the Germans not meaning business seriously, the glorious British would obviously bravely send their superior tanks and singlehandedly beat back the evil red flood, so there, invading Turkey is much easier...
    Sorry Husar - our army is in a pretty bad way too, our armour has been even more ground down that yours.

    If you need to stop the Red Flood may I suggest the Greeks?

    I'm sure they're only too happy to help fellow Europeans.

    Back when you were serious about defending the Fulda Gap you had over two thousand tanks - now you have a tenth of that.

    Turkey has a massive tank force, yes they have many older tanks but the spearhead are the Leopard II and Leopard I tanks in that order. Russia doesn't have a huge number of modern tanks either, remember, the majority of their tanks are still T-80s.

    Add to that the fact that Anatolia is one of the worst places to invade in the world and you rapidly conclude it's not worth it for the Russians, it would require a general mobalisation and I don't think Russia can afford that financially or domestically.
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    Senior Member Senior Member Brenus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    If we want to stop the "Red Storm" we have to built tanks, APC, heavy guns and trained the crews and troops. I don't know for you guys, but thanks to the strain of Presidents on France, we don't have any more the capacity to do so, as Sarkozy sold France to NATO, dismantled our factories (including the one producing special metal to Mittal who shut it down) producing weapons, and sold the premises and field where we were training to friends and relatives. The Infantry Combat School where I trained doesn't exist any more and is now a area of nice (but expensive) flats. All went for so-called inter-arms school, on the principal that a mechanic has the same needs than a grunt. All the "savoir-faire" based on experience and traditions is just gone.
    Like others, France sacrificed the heavy gears for light intervention brigades, light infantry brigade type Legion/paratroopers/overseas troops, equipped with magnified APC, well, even not APC but glorified lorries (VAB)... And even not enough of them. Operations type Mali put an unsustainable strain on the French Army: No troops, no helicopters, no planes, limit of ammunition, logistic just good enough thanks to US Air force back-up. With a more robust enemy... So, Red Storm, let have a laugh...

    And that why I think Hollande went to see Putin for Iraq. If France want to sent boots (Foreign Legion first, I suppose), France will need the MI-24 and the Russian Controlled facilities...
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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by ICantSpellDawg View Post
    Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO.
    Larger than all EU countries together?

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Sorry Husar - our army is in a pretty bad way too, our armour has been even more ground down that yours.

    If you need to stop the Red Flood may I suggest the Greeks?

    I'm sure they're only too happy to help fellow Europeans.

    Back when you were serious about defending the Fulda Gap you had over two thousand tanks - now you have a tenth of that.
    That was my point, most of these tanks are still in service in EU countries: Spain, Poland, Sweden, Greece...
    Add to that the British tanks, the Italian ones, the French Leclercs, the Polish Twardys and you're seriously going to argue that attacking the EU is easier than Turkey? Or did you just forget how we started this argument? We didn't even get to the Air Forces and other assets yet...

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Turkey has a massive tank force, yes they have many older tanks but the spearhead are the Leopard II and Leopard I tanks in that order. Russia doesn't have a huge number of modern tanks either, remember, the majority of their tanks are still T-80s.
    These T-80s can take on all of these Turkish tanks, especially upgraded T-80s that are more modern than pretty much all the active tanks Turkey has.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Add to that the fact that Anatolia is one of the worst places to invade in the world and you rapidly conclude it's not worth it for the Russians, it would require a general mobalisation and I don't think Russia can afford that financially or domestically.
    I never said they're going to invade, I said it's strange how people used to say Putin is coming for Europe and now even Turkey is too much for him...
    Last edited by Husar; 11-28-2015 at 19:34. Reason: accidentally copied wrong quote tags


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    Senior Member Senior Member Brenus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    That is this strange "schizophrenia": Putin will invade all the world, but Putin can't attack even Georgia as his armies are made of tin foiled tanks/planes/whatever manned by drunken crews...
    And they believed both proposals...
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    Senior Member Senior Member Fisherking's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    This article on the situation in Turkey is actually being rather kind to Erdogan. They speak of smuggled oil from ISIS and don’t bring up Erdogan’s son, who seems involved with it and is the Turkish equivalent of a Mafia Don.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-BURLEIGH.html
    It tells us the Turkish Army is around 500,000 strong.

    Yesterday, I here of two prominent Turkish Journalists were arrested, charged with espionage, and helping a terror organisation, (a US based opposition group to Erdogan) when in fact what they did was expose government cooperation and aid to ISIS.

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two...&NewsCatID=339


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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    That is this strange "schizophrenia": Putin will invade all the world, but Putin can't attack even Georgia as his armies are made of tin foiled tanks/planes/whatever manned by drunken crews...
    And they believed both proposals...
    Eh. Either russia would fail to beat the turkish army or they win but end up in another afghanistan.
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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    That is this strange "schizophrenia": Putin will invade all the world, but Putin can't attack even Georgia as his armies are made of tin foiled tanks/planes/whatever manned by drunken crews...
    And they believed both proposals...
    If you mean my comment, then you again misread it. I said of zero likelihood for Russians TO BE LET THROUGH Georgia. I don't doubt Russia can FIGHT ITS WAY through Georgia and win. But it will mean fighting one enemy to create a landbridge to fight another. Too much fighting OPENLY. Putin will do things in his favorite surreptitious mean way. Perhaps we will soon hear of oppressed Armenians, their Orthodox brethren, living amid bloodthirsty Nazi Turks and calling on Putin the Deliverer to free them from the yoke.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    If you mean my comment, then you again misread it.
    At least as far as I'm concerned, these arguments come more from the direction of our two resident doomsday posters who can't wait to die in a glorious explosion in WW3, PFFF and ICPFFF (obviously I don't want to spell either ).


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    Senior Member Senior Member Brenus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    "If you mean my comment, then you again misread it" Nope, wasn't yours. A bit like Husar, but not really aimed at someone in particular... But you probably remember some comments about Russian being drunk and their armies crap. And as well some comments Russia was massing troops at the borders reading to take Berlin...
    "First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin"
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    "You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
    "Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
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    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    That was my point, most of these tanks are still in service in EU countries: Spain, Poland, Sweden, Greece...
    Add to that the British tanks, the Italian ones, the French Leclercs, the Polish Twardys and you're seriously going to argue that attacking the EU is easier than Turkey? Or did you just forget how we started this argument? We didn't even get to the Air Forces and other assets yet...
    Tanks in Greece do you no good if Russia invades Germany - by the time you can transfer the tanks between fronts the Russians are through the Gap. By contrast Turkey has 3,000 tanks in Anatolia.

    These T-80s can take on all of these Turkish tanks, especially upgraded T-80s that are more modern than pretty much all the active tanks Turkey has.
    If Russia deployed all it's T-80 tanks it could probably beat Turkey, but that means stripping a lot of its garrisons and Russia is unlike to do that. Like the Turks Russia would be likely to use a mix of older and newer tanks. Turks are reputed to be good tankmen and if you're invading Anatolia it can be hell on Earth, like Russia itself.

    I never said they're going to invade, I said it's strange how people used to say Putin is coming for Europe and now even Turkey is too much for him...
    The amount of armour in German is between 1/4 and 1/5 of what's in Germany including all German, British and American formations. the German army has recieved a reputation in recent years for being demoralised and overweight, while the UK army today has very low morale due to constant cutting of men and fun stuff like tanks.

    Even so, nobody was saying that Putin would invade NATO/the EU but that we would struggle to stop him from annexing parts of EU countries because of our unwilingness to fight. You don't want to fight - you've openly said that in the event of war you'll run away and hide.

    Me, I know I'm of draftable age and if the proverbial hits the air circulation mechanism I'm going to end up in the Green. So I'd prefer SigInt or failing that Artillery because I might actually be not-terrible at those.

    I don't want to fight, thanks, but I'm perfectly willing to if required.
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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Tanks in Greece do you no good if Russia invades Germany - by the time you can transfer the tanks between fronts the Russians are through the Gap. By contrast Turkey has 3,000 tanks in Anatolia.
    Germany and Greece are not the only countries in the EU.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    If Russia deployed all it's T-80 tanks it could probably beat Turkey, but that means stripping a lot of its garrisons and Russia is unlike to do that. Like the Turks Russia would be likely to use a mix of older and newer tanks. Turks are reputed to be good tankmen and if you're invading Anatolia it can be hell on Earth, like Russia itself.
    Good for them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    The amount of armour in German is between 1/4 and 1/5 of what's in Germany including all German, British and American formations.
    ¿Qué?

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    the German army has recieved a reputation in recent years for being demoralised and overweight, while the UK army today has very low morale due to constant cutting of men and fun stuff like tanks.
    And the Russians are all drunk, so I guess we're even.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Even so, nobody was saying that Putin would invade NATO/the EU but that we would struggle to stop him from annexing parts of EU countries because of our unwilingness to fight.
    I'm pretty sure that you or someone else talked about that it may be better to strike against Russia now before Putin comes or something like that back in the Ukraine thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    You don't want to fight - you've openly said that in the event of war you'll run away and hide.
    Yes, it depends on the circumstances as well, but especially if it is a war over something I consider a stupid political event where "my side" may even be to blame for the escalation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    I don't want to fight, thanks, but I'm perfectly willing to if required.
    Define "required" in this context.


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

  28. #1348
    Senior Member Senior Member Brenus's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    "Germany and Greece are not the only countries in the EU." Is it not the Greece made of overpaid lazy greedy tax dodgers we speak about here? The one who should have been expel from EU?
    Well, apparently the French, Spanish, Italian and others are not in Europe, or perhaps not considered as forces...
    Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.

    "I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
    "You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
    "Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
    Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"

  29. #1349
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Breaking news.

    Fateh Halab (Conquest of Aleppo) is a member of the Free Syrian Army, an organisation with a media-friendly name that conquers cities very moderately. They are also allies of the West and today they claimed that , after heroic and intense fighting, they manage to... conquer the villages of Kashtar and Taneb. From whom?

    Not from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

    Not from the Syrian Army.

    Not from Al-Qaeda.

    Not from the Lebanese, the Iranians, the Israelis or the Turks.

    From the Kurds? Well, not exactly.

    They captured them from the equally moderate Syrian Democratic Forces, a new moderate coalition between Arabs and Kurds, an ally of the West, with the task of liberating Syria and giving the media a new catchy name, to replace the exhausted FSA.

    So, whom are we supposed to attack and whom to arm? The Free or the Democratic guys? Who are the terrorists and who the partisans, for god's sake?!

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  30. #1350
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post

    If Russia deployed all it's T-80 tanks it could probably beat Turkey, but that means stripping a lot of its garrisons and Russia is unlike to do that.
    The key word here is "if". It doesn't explain HOW Russians are going to get their tanks in contacts with the Turks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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