Turn 42 now and...stuff happened. Makedon sent the entire doomstack north to take Naissos, leaving Pella and Demetrios completely undefended. Epeiros walks in with half a stack and takes Pella. 5 turns later I decide enough waiting is enough and siege Demetrios, and surely enough, the Makedonian doomstack is back, bypassing Pella that's lightly defended and beelining straight for my siege army.
We'll see how it goes.

Global situation: Epeiros reinforced the south of Italy heavily, they have 1.5 stacks in the area. Romans ignoring the south, focusing on north of Italy. Qart-Hadast took out Syracuse and siege Messana, starting war with the Romans. Ptolomei have almost 3 full stacks next to Halicarnassus but seem obsessed with keeping them around minor settlements to the west of Ephesos, even though Halicarnassus has had a skeleton defense for at least 5 turns.