Ukraine Thread

[CrossLOPER]

No, but that's where we're headed now.

This is a question to which the answer has totally eluded me, but could you explain why you would want to?

The control is complete: Putin can stop supplying the rebels with weapons, ammo, fuel, food and close the border against any reinforcements coming from Russia.

You are fully aware that this is impossible.

[Don Corleone]

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

This is a good read on the current situation. The Economist, noted for its rather thoughtful, restrained insights on aggressive foreign policy, nails it. Now or later, we're going to war with this guy.

[CrossLOPER]

This is a good read on the current situation. The Economist, noted for its rather thoughtful, restrained insights on aggressive foreign policy, nails it. Now or later, we're going to war with this guy.

That article completely ignores the core issues and boils down complex problems to "Putin bad, BAD."

[Kagemusha]

If Brits want to invade Russia with their two operational divisions then go ahead and attack. Maybe the single US Airborne division in Europe can join you guys. I am sure the odd 40 Brigades Russia can field would be shitting themselves just by hearing of such force being deployed against them. Lets be realist here. West is not ready for such war at the moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11424238/Britain-cannot-defend-itself-against-Putins-military-might-top-brass-warn.html

For some reason everyone in this thread saying we should go to war with Russia are either living on a island or a different continent all together. It is kind of funny when people are being worried if Poland will be next, when Poland has a stronger military for a conventional warfare then most of Western European countries, who have dissected their armies into something that has little value in a conflict some of you are talking about.

[CrossLOPER]

For some reason everyone in this thread saying we should go to war with Russia are either living on a island or a different continent all together. It is kind of funny when people are being worried if Poland will be next, when Poland has a stronger military for a conventional warfare then most of Western European countries, who have dissected their armies into something that has little value in a conflict some of you are talking about.

They are told that because it is a fun thing to think about. Moreover, they act and speak as if Putin has already reconquered most of the lost Warsaw Pact.

[Don Corleone]

I agree Kagemusha. I wouldn't start an offensive, certainly not in our current state of affairs.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

[Don Corleone]

Yes, bullying your neighbors into submission always has complicated underlying issues that absolve the bully of wrong-doing. Just ask Georgia.

[CrossLOPER]

I agree Kagemusha. I wouldn't start an offensive, certainly not in our current state of affairs.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

What indications has he shown of doing this? I am not denying it, I am asking for your proof.

Yes, bullying your neighbors into submission always has complicated underlying issues that absolve the bully of wrong-doing. Just ask Georgia.

Again, you are oversimplifying it.

[Brenus]

"Just ask Georgia" Or Serbia. Ooops, sorry, that was NATO, sorry, wrong guy.

[Gilrandir]

You are fully aware that this is impossible.

I am. But it was meant to show how he exercises control over Lugandoneans and this control is complete.

I'm highlighting that IMHO, there is no choice here. If we won't go fight Putin, he'll come to you. He's not stopping with getting Warsaw territory back.

If he ever starts a war, the problem for him will be both conquering anything within the reach and holding the overrun territory. When some people speak of Russian tank wedges in Europe they fail to realize that tanks need refuelling and ammo replenishing, crews need catering. One can't provide that in long-distance operations. Holding the territory is a more problematic issue what with the mentioned logistic problems and the attitude of the hostile populace. So the conclusion is: if Putin will start a war anywhere it will be a war in the territories where Russians live and it will break no sooner than preliminary steps are taken. The latter usually takes time but if one Russia puts its mind into it it will take it 4-5 years.

http://joinfo.com/world/1001285_Russ...st-Latvia.html
What the Far West may fear is not a land operation, but missile and aicraft warfare. Or it may side with Putin:
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/events/oth...or-the-donbass

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

This is a question to which the answer has totally eluded me, but could you explain why you would want to?

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

He's still not going to attack with Nukes, there's no point unless we invade Russia itself and that's not necessary, or profitable.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

We do tend to do the right thing pretty lethargically when in comes to Europe. And you are quite fair in your apportionment of blame regarding NATO's military preparedness.

I hope you are wrong about the need to go to war with Putin. That would be a lot of blood spilled. He does seem to harken back to the days of Empire and expansionism though....so you may have a point.

[Gilrandir]

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

To get at Moldova he has to conquer all the way through the south of Ukraine and be able to control the strip. Hungary has a most friendly to Putin regime. Moreover, no hybrid war tactics will be possible to preliminary weaken the adversary since no large quantities of Russian speakers/Russians reside there (exept Transdniestria). So I believe the Baltics (namely Latvia) will have to bear the brunt of assault if it comes to war.
http://www.baltictimes.com/latvian_s...rnet_pictures/
But again, it will take money (which Russia definitely is short of at the moment) and time (which gives Latvia a respite of couple of years) to get things prepared properly.
Or, alternatively, Putin may consider Kazakhstan as an option. The north of the country is entirely populated by Russian speakers (among whom a great proportion is taken by ethnic Ukrainians, btw) who seem to be an easy target to sway Russiawards.
And Belarus, having such soldiers, seems perfectly safe from any attack from the East:

[Fisherking]

Putin is merely an opportunist taking advantage of very stupid US efforts to weaken Russia.

The West lacks any leadership half as cunning as Putin nor wise enough to know it.

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

It has a military focused on the use of small scale special forces operations and air power focused on air to air combat. Their multi mission aircraft do none of their missions well and there are too few troops to take on the tasks or trained to handle a combined arms campaign.

Russia has be isolated by the US each time they have tried to cooperate with them.

The rest of the west keep following Washington’s ridiculous short sighed policies and diplomatic leads which brought it to this stage.

His latest move shows that he has lost any hope of bringing the EU to a more neutral stance, so from here on it is put up or shut up.

As weak as Europe is and as unreliable an ally as the US has turned out to be he is fairly confident in being able to push things even further. All I can see from the West is more bluster and no substance.

[Gilrandir]

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

Luckily, both EU and the USA have other levers (mainly economic and finacial) to reach their goal. Unluckily, they don't use them or are afraid/reluctant to use them (I mean those they are using aren't efficient enough).

[Gilrandir]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

[CrossLOPER]

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

Well, my Grandfather was an electrician, and (surprise, surprise) he didn't want to fight Hitler.

[CrossLOPER]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

[Gilrandir]

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

The reason I posted this is because people here tend to underestimate the power of Russian propaganda. My aunt who lives in Krasnodar calls my father now and again and he is astounded and even apalled after such communications. He can't believe that she trusts what she hears and sees on TV more than the words of her brother.

[Gilrandir]

Found an interesting prediction and thought it might be curious for others to know. One of Ukrainian experts claims that the oncoming spring will be the time when ISIS will step up its offensive and try to cooperate/coordinate it with Taliban. This will give a push to fundamentalist activities in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan) as far as attempts to topple secular regimes in those states. This consequently will demand more attention from Russia which is likely to strengthen its military presence in those regions. That is why the haste of Putin to solve the situation in Ukraine and his precipitate offensive in winter. Thus ISIS offensive may ultimately benefit Ukraine.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

True, but Russian TV "news" is laughable - especially given that any dissenting stations are simply closed.

America is apparently sending a training Battalion to Ukraine, which is a significant symbolic commitment whilst the UK is sending 75 troops in four training teams.

The news is from the BBC, but I can't find the article now.

[CrossLOPER]

True, but Russian TV "news" is laughable - especially given that any dissenting stations are simply closed.

Are you unfamiliar with US news stations? They are 24-hour clownshoes cabaret.

Again, I fully concede that the state of Russian media is an unsustainable joke, but to suggest that this is somehow unique is unrepresentative of the truth.

[Brenus]

Ukrainian Gvt and freedom of media:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27546283

Probably Russian propaganda.

[Gilrandir]

Ukrainian Gvt and freedom of media:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27546283

Probably Russian propaganda.

Hybrid war neccessitates unconventional countermeasures. Informational component of the said war is even more important than the actual warfare which was proved by the Crimean episode. Have you paid attention that only representatives of particular media were under attack? Why RT and Lifenews, and not BBC, Al-Jazeera or NYT? Don't you think it is connected with the nature of messages they carry and their "unbiased policies"? Russia was officially proclaimed the aggressor by the parliament, so these are steps consistent with this - to disable the enemy's informational soldiers. Or can you imagine German newspaper correspondents reporting, say, from Moscow in December 1941?
If you think it was/is otherwise in Western democracies:
http://russia-insider.com/en/militar...015/02/23/3771
Will you entitle it like "British Gvt and freedom of media"?

[GenosseGeneral]

Found an interesting prediction and thought it might be curious for others to know. One of Ukrainian experts claims that the oncoming spring will be the time when ISIS will step up its offensive and try to cooperate/coordinate it with Taliban. This will give a push to fundamentalist activities in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan) as far as attempts to topple secular regimes in those states. This consequently will demand more attention from Russia which is likely to strengthen its military presence in those regions. That is why the haste of Putin to solve the situation in Ukraine and his precipitate offensive in winter. Thus ISIS offensive may ultimately benefit Ukraine.

I am not an expert here, but if ISIS will expand, this will more likely happen (or is already happening) in Libya and Egypt, particularly the Sinai peninsula. Currently, it is more the other way round: Jihadis from Central Asia and the Caucasus have joined the IS, especially notable are Chechens. At least those of them, who are not fighting on either side of the Ukrainian civil war.

Regarding freedom of press in Ukraine: Unfortunately, freedom of press and human rights activists inside and outside of Ukraine have every reason to protest against it. In the Ukrainian context, it will be very likely not only used to suppress Russian propaganda (already a very, you know, imprecise term), but also to target journalists exposing misconduct and corruption, especially in the armed forces.

[Gilrandir]

I am not an expert here, but if ISIS will expand, this will more likely happen (or is already happening) in Libya and Egypt, particularly the Sinai peninsula. Currently, it is more the other way round: Jihadis from Central Asia and the Caucasus have joined the IS, especially notable are Chechens. At least those of them, who are not fighting on either side of the Ukrainian civil war.

When I spoke of Cenral Asian fundamentalism I meant more its Taliban orientation/relation/support than ISIS. And Taliban is much closer than ISIS.

[Greyblades]

Are you unfamiliar with US news stations? They are 24-hour clownshoes cabaret.

Again, I fully concede that the state of Russian media is an unsustainable joke, but to suggest that this is somehow unique is unrepresentative of the truth.

While the incompetence of American news reporting is both staggering and largely intentional, they are not remotely equivelant to that of the Russian Federation.

That the fox news crew havent been put against a wall and shot during the tenure of a democratic president is testament to that if nothing else

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Are you unfamiliar with US news stations? They are 24-hour clownshoes cabaret.

Again, I fully concede that the state of Russian media is an unsustainable joke, but to suggest that this is somehow unique is unrepresentative of the truth.

I've heard of them - but I'm in the UK, so it doesn't matter to me much.

[Hax]

There is not a really strong presence of fundamentalist/jihadis in Central Asia, so I would be surprised if ISIS managed to get a foothold there. Especially considering how hard the Central Asian states tend to crack down on such movements. The governments there pretty much call everyone that disagrees with them "islamists", so I'm not sure to what degree we should take that very seriously.

But if Putin believes that, sure -- why not?