Ukraine Thread

[Viking]

That last one was the one that got the most of its precise predictions right:

Moscow’s main aim is to wrest the Crimean Peninsula from Kiev’s control. A majority of the Crimea’s inhabitants are ethnic Russians. More importantly, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol. Under a 1997 agreement between the two countries, the Russian navy is scheduled to leave by 2017. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko refuses to extend the lease - rightly fearing Moscow plans to stay on indefinitely and eventually annex the entire Crimea. Russian officials have already said they will not abandon the base at Sevastopol and that Kiev’s maritime laws do not apply to them.

Moreover, Russia has been distributing thousands of Russian passports to supporters in the Crimea. The plan is to replicate what was done in South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Create a pretext to send in Russian “peacekeepers” to protect supposedly endangered Russian “citizens.”

But Ukraine is not Georgia; it is a large, militarily powerful country with long memories of Russian domination. Any attempt at partition by Moscow would be met by fierce resistance. It would spark a bloody Russo-Ukrainian war.

He just got it wrong that "peacekeepers" would take over Crimea - it was of course instead the rather unbelievable story of 'local self-defence forces'.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That last one was the one that got the most of its precise predictions right:



He just got it wrong that "peacekeepers" would take over Crimea - it was of course instead the rather unbelievable story of 'local self-defence forces'.

He also underestimated the character of the Ukrainian forces, that they would put up such a determined but non-violent resistance.

18 months later the stories of men pinned in their barracks by what were obviously Russian forces and ships with mattresses lashed to the side to prevent boarding by divers are all but forgotten. None the less, it is important that we remember that Ukraine tried doing things the "right" way and it availed them nothing. If they are now shelling their own cities to deny Russia infrastructure and transport links we must remember the leadership was driven to this by Moscow.

Meanwhile, Putin was in a mini-sub in Crimea playing at Action Man again.

[Gilrandir]

If they are now shelling their own cities to deny Russia infrastructure and transport links we must remember the leadership was driven to this by Moscow.

The purpose of shelling is not the infrastructure (otherwise why the greatest in the region Debaltseve railway hub was not blown up by the Ukrainians before their withdrawal).
As even OSCE admits (http://en.censor.net.ua/news/346283/...d_coordination), separatists often place their artillery in residential areas and open fire from there, so the Ukrainian army fires back to suppress it - and of course may hit the buildings and other objects in the vicinity.

[Strike For The South]

It's August 22nd and Putin is still a fascist.

[Gilrandir]

It's August 22nd and Putin is still a fascist.

Hardly looks that:

[Gilrandir]

Russia's crackdown on Wikipedia:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/russia-o...24-gj6sty.html

[Gilrandir]

On Russia's casualties in Ukraine:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrode...-east-ukraine/

And Europe FINALLY identified the red line for Russia - not just vague "escalation", but elections in Donbas if held by DPR and LPR:
http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/coun...ia_505223.html