Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

And the French Senate pushes on with the urge to lift sanctions against Russia:
http://www.rferl.org/content/french-.../27787635.html

[Gilrandir]

More bullying from Russia:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/wo...ones.html?_r=3

[Seamus Fermanagh]

As far as I can tell, there is still nobody aside from Ukraine willing to go to the mat -- read bleed a lot -- to counteract Russia's annexation of these territories. As Ukraine lacks the capability to do much aside from preserve what it has preserved thus far, this is more or less fait accompli at this point. Real politik says move on and accept it. Like it or not, legal or not, I am pretty sure that this is a done deal.

[Gilrandir]

As far as I can tell, there is still nobody aside from Ukraine willing to go to the mat -- read bleed a lot -- to counteract Russia's annexation of these territories. As Ukraine lacks the capability to do much aside from preserve what it has preserved thus far, this is more or less fait accompli at this point. Real politik says move on and accept it. Like it or not, legal or not, I am pretty sure that this is a done deal.

It seems that it is true in respect of Crimea (although the signs of dissatisfaction at the failed expectations of those who welcomed Russia there are more and more evident). But believe it or not, Russia is anxious now to squeeze the occupied Donbas into Ukraine. First of all, it is finding it increasingly hard to sustain the social spheres of DPR and LPR. Second of all, if the occupied territories return on Putin's conditions, it will allow him to exercise control over whole Ukraine. It is Ukraine now that prevaricates and doesn't want to burden itself with the ruined areas rampant with a significant percentage of hostile population whose minds are being poisoned by RT. Popular sentiment in Ukraine is also far from being absolutely in favor of returning DPR and LPR. For the time being this stalemate seems advantageous for Ukraine hoping to outlast Putin's regime. However feeble this hope may seem, we should remember that about 30 years ago noboby would have ever thought that the USSR is doomed. And yet its collapse came about.

[Pannonian]

It seems that it is true in respect of Crimea (although the signs of dissatisfaction at the failed expectations of those who welcomed Russia there are more and more evident). But believe it or not, Russia is anxious now to squeeze the occupied Donbas into Ukraine. First of all, it is finding it increasingly hard to sustain the social spheres of DPR and LPR. Second of all, if the occupied territories return on Putin's conditions, it will allow him to exercise control over whole Ukraine. It is Ukraine now that prevaricates and doesn't want to burden itself with the ruined areas rampant with a significant percentage of hostile population whose minds are being poisoned by RT. Popular sentiment in Ukraine is also far from being absolutely in favor of returning DPR and LPR. For the time being this stalemate seems advantageous for Ukraine hoping to outlast Putin's regime. However feeble this hope may seem, we should remember that about 30 years ago noboby would have ever thought that the USSR is doomed. And yet its collapse came about.

Russia's capabilities were stretched for a while. However, its troops should be returning from their recent deployment in France.

[Gilrandir]

Russia's capabilities were stretched for a while. However, its troops should be returning from their recent deployment in France.

It's not about troops which Russia has in plenty. It's about them moneys.

[Gilrandir]

Pretty soon Russian soldiers (and fans) will be able to teleport to any place on Earth:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...n-in-20-years/

[Lizardo]

Pretty soon Russian soldiers (and fans) will be able to teleport to any place on Earth:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...n-in-20-years/

Well with anything russian made you know it's going to reliable. You wouldn't want a stray bodypart landing in the cannibal infested jungles of PNG.

[Gilrandir]

You wouldn't want a stray bodypart landing in the cannibal infested jungles of PNG.

I wouldn't, the cannibals would.

[Gilrandir]

Whilhttp://www.dw.com/en/are-russias-ant...acy/a-19351398e all the world is busy with Brexit:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Whilhttp://www.dw.com/en/are-russias-ant...acy/a-19351398e all the world is busy with Brexit:

Does make the Patriot Act seem a little tame.

[Gilrandir]

Is it true or another RT malarkey?
https://www.rt.com/news/348562-putin...-turkey-pilot/

[Gilrandir]

On Tatars:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...under-russian/

[Gilrandir]

http://www.wrath-bearingtree.com/201...ics-march-war/

[Gilrandir]

I think it is funny:
https://nobsrussia.com/2015/09/11/cn...to-a-ukraines/

[Gilrandir]

On terms:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...ion-in-ukraine

[Gilrandir]

Something is brewing in Crimea?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...other-invasion
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1470869445

[spmetla]

Like the article said Putin does seem to like using the Olympics as a distraction, immediately after Sochi he took Crimea and although he wasn't the aggressor the war with Georgia was during the Beijing Olympics.

Guess with Obama on the out and re-election pretty much making the US paralyzed for foreign policy it's the right time for his shenanigans. No republicans will approve any initiative of Obama during the election season. Merkel has also been seen as weak due to the migrant crisis so I wonder if she'd be able to gather any meaningful support from the EU to oppose Russia, especially when France has been trying hard to thaw relations with Russia.

Wonder if he got buy-in from Turkey during his recent negotiations. Erdogan certainly doesn't like NATO, the EU,or the US and would probably love to create dissent within NATO and the EU by siding with Russia.

[Hooahguy]

I definitely think that Putin is gearing up for something big. Maybe not within the next couple of weeks but I think before the winter starts we will see much more intense fighting in eastern Ukraine. Not that the fighting ever really stopped, but I think its definitely going to ramp up. I dont think that Russia would do a full-on invasion of Ukraine. I hope not anyways. But spmetla is right, Putin does love using the Olympics as a distraction.

[Gilrandir]

although he wasn't the aggressor the war with Georgia was during the Beijing Olympics.

If you mean that Putin wasn't Russian president then, you are right.

If you mean Russia wasn't the aggressor, you are wrong.

[spmetla]

If you mean that Putin wasn't Russian president then, you are right.

If you mean Russia wasn't the aggressor, you are wrong.

If I recall correctly Georgia tried to take South Ossetia and killed Russian 'peacekeepers' in the process prompting the massive Russian attack/invasion. I'm no fan of Russia but you don't go poking the big bear like that, he will retaliate. Granted that South Ossetia and Abkazia were Russian puppet pseudo-states in one of the many frozen conflicts following the cold war but Georgia tried to change that status quo via force making it the aggressor.
I understand that the Ossetians had been attacking the Georgians (possibly Russian saboteurs to prompt a war?) but the size of the Georgian counter attack was not small and looking at the state of the subsequent operations they certainly had not been prepared for the Russian involvement in such a large scale.

Looking at it now, Saakashvili seemed to have vastly overestimated Bush Jrs. support and willingness to go toe to toe with the Russians as repayment for Georgian support in Iraq. He blundered, badly, and showed the limits to what NATO and the US were willing to protect thereby gifting Putin with a foreign policy coup. Up to that point Putin had not been Mr. RUssiaStrong foreign policy but after that war it became his new policy in the face of US/NATO/EU impotence which is something he certainly sees now and intends to exploit, same as the Chinese in the S. China Sea. Short of force or risking WW3 like during the Cuban missile crisis those two powers are piece by piece building up what they want for a sphere of influence.

I am very worried though that with Trump's recent remarks essentially saying Estonia wasn't worth defending despite being a NATO ally that Putin will try some similar nonsense to save poor oppressed Russians in the Ukraine, Baltic States(especially Lativia), or even something out of left field like weaken Azerbaijan via Armenia to kill another island of US influence in the Caucasus.

[Gilrandir]

If I recall correctly Georgia tried to take South Ossetia and killed Russian 'peacekeepers' in the process prompting the massive Russian attack/invasion. I'm no fan of Russia but you don't go poking the big bear like that, he will retaliate. Granted that South Ossetia and Abkazia were Russian puppet pseudo-states in one of the many frozen conflicts following the cold war but Georgia tried to change that status quo via force making it the aggressor.
I understand that the Ossetians had been attacking the Georgians (possibly Russian saboteurs to prompt a war?) but the size of the Georgian counter attack was not small and looking at the state of the subsequent operations they certainly had not been prepared for the Russian involvement in such a large scale.

You picture the events correctly, but the bolded should be "retake" since South Ossetia was and is ostensibly a part of Georgia which is acknowledged by all countries (except few Russia's satellites).

But is it an aggression if you try to take back your property, and after being repeatedly shelled by those who stole it, too?

And as for Saakashvili's vain hopes for American support - it only whetted Putin's appetite and he ventured to annex Crimea seeing that the West can only express deep concerns at his iniquities.

[spmetla]

True that by all legal means it was part of Georgia but that doesn't make it any better. Using force to retake your property is still aggression. China considers Taiwan its own territory even though its defacto independent, changing that status quo by force is aggression. If the Ukraine were to be foolish enough right now to try and retake the Crimea by force they would certainly be the aggressors even though no one outside the Russia sphere recognizes their annexation of it. It's one of the unfortunate realities that Western Europe has tried to forget but might does make right when it comes to nation-states.

I agree entirely that it only whetted Putin's appetite. Once he started messing with the Crimea NATO should have essentially done a mass mobilization and threatened WW3 if Russia didn't back down. No Western leader has the stones to stand up to him because he's playing politics like it's the 20th century and the West likes to pretend that its evolved beyond having to do that. Unfortunately the only people that would threaten force to defend democracy are idiots like Trump who would discredit and wreck whatever cause they stand behind. Need a few more Kennedy like people in power who can mix soft and hard power while making the West still fill on the morally correct side.

[Gilrandir]

True that by all legal means it was part of Georgia but that doesn't make it any better. Using force to retake your property is still aggression. China considers Taiwan its own territory even though its defacto independent, changing that status quo by force is aggression. If the Ukraine were to be foolish enough right now to try and retake the Crimea by force they would certainly be the aggressors even though no one outside the Russia sphere recognizes their annexation of it.

So Allies' landing in Normandy in 1944 was aggression? Evidently, our understanding of what aggression is are different.

[spmetla]

Starting or escalating tensions into a war versus fighting a battle in a war are not the same.

I understand that the Ukraine is in a low intensity war with Russia's proxies and occasionally Russian troops but not in outright war. Escalating that low intensity war into a proper war in my mind is aggression. Please don't mistake me though, aggression can at times be the right thing to do and I'm pro Ukrainian for sure at least in regards to its eastern Rebel provinces versus Crimea.

I think you and I actually are closer in opinion than you may think but what I'm stating is more or less how the international community will treat any escalation of the war. I far too much of a hawk to decry all aggression but I will not shirk from calling it such.

[Gilrandir]

Starting or escalating tensions into a war versus fighting a battle in a war are not the same.

I understand that the Ukraine is in a low intensity war with Russia's proxies and occasionally Russian troops but not in outright war. Escalating that low intensity war into a proper war in my mind is aggression.

One may claim that by 1944 Normandy had been a scene of low intensity war for 4 years when it was escalated by the Allies' landing.

Please don't mistake me though, aggression can at times be the right thing to do and I'm pro Ukrainian for sure at least in regards to its eastern Rebel provinces versus Crimea.

I think you and I actually are closer in opinion than you may think but what I'm stating is more or less how the international community will treat any escalation of the war. I far too much of a hawk to decry all aggression but I will not shirk from calling it such.

Being close in views doesn't exclude being at variance in understanding some terms. By definition, any war is an aggression.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggression
Aggression is overt, often harmful, social interaction with the intention of inflicting damage or other unpleasantness upon another individual.

So it doesn't matter what is the intensity of this war - aggression it stays.
Moreover, aggressor is the one who started the war.

A possible escalation of the war/aggression is to be called "escalation" and as it can be both undertaken by the aggressor and the victim. The same with Normandy landing.

[spmetla]

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

[Sarmatian]

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

[spmetla]

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

I believe the Russians are using Crimea right now together with Olympics to stoke their patriotism and then somewhere out of left field Putin will do something in the Baltic States. He's prevented NATO expansion to the Caucasus Mountains and to his southern border (Ukraine) but still has the Baltic States providing a direct border with NATO which cuts off Kalinigrad Oblast and the waterways to St. Petersburg. While I don't think he would dare be as blatant as in Ukraine I don't doubt that he'll try and create a crisis affecting the large Russian minorities there which he would be obliged to protect at a much later point but in the mean time would cause NATO and the EU to question its commitment to the Baltic States. Trump has already questioned his preparedness to defend our weaker NATO allies and if the US doesn't weigh in there's very little chance that Germany or France would do a thing to oppose Russia.

Russia doesn't need escalation but can use it all the same to its advantage. By causing a rift in NATO and doubt of US commitment to Eastern Europe. Obama is in lame duck territory, Hillary might scare off any peacenik supporters if she indicates opposing Russia with force and Trump is an unwitting aid to Putin's policies. If the Ukrainian government feels completely abandoned by the EU and US who's to say they won't make a deal with the Russians. No shortage of corrupt politicians in the Ukraine who want peace by any means if they can line their pockets with GAZPROM as well. Who benefits out of any escalation of conflict in Ukraine right now is Russia and no one else.

[Husar]

Again, what I never read in these analyses is that an attack on an EU country would not only trigger a NATO defense clause but also an EU one.
So basically the fate of the EU may be decided if he attacks an EU country because if Germany and France don't even defend other EU members from an outright invasion, all of Europe/the entire EU could easily fall apart...