Ukraine Thread

**spmetla** · 08-14-2016, 18:10

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

**Sarmatian** · 08-14-2016, 21:01

Originally Posted by spmetla

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

**spmetla** · 08-15-2016, 02:08

Originally Posted by Sarmatian

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

I believe the Russians are using Crimea right now together with Olympics to stoke their patriotism and then somewhere out of left field Putin will do something in the Baltic States. He's prevented NATO expansion to the Caucasus Mountains and to his southern border (Ukraine) but still has the Baltic States providing a direct border with NATO which cuts off Kalinigrad Oblast and the waterways to St. Petersburg. While I don't think he would dare be as blatant as in Ukraine I don't doubt that he'll try and create a crisis affecting the large Russian minorities there which he would be obliged to protect at a much later point but in the mean time would cause NATO and the EU to question its commitment to the Baltic States. Trump has already questioned his preparedness to defend our weaker NATO allies and if the US doesn't weigh in there's very little chance that Germany or France would do a thing to oppose Russia.

Russia doesn't need escalation but can use it all the same to its advantage. By causing a rift in NATO and doubt of US commitment to Eastern Europe. Obama is in lame duck territory, Hillary might scare off any peacenik supporters if she indicates opposing Russia with force and Trump is an unwitting aid to Putin's policies. If the Ukrainian government feels completely abandoned by the EU and US who's to say they won't make a deal with the Russians. No shortage of corrupt politicians in the Ukraine who want peace by any means if they can line their pockets with GAZPROM as well. Who benefits out of any escalation of conflict in Ukraine right now is Russia and no one else.

**Husar** · 08-15-2016, 12:03

Again, what I never read in these analyses is that an attack on an EU country would not only trigger a NATO defense clause but also an EU one.
So basically the fate of the EU may be decided if he attacks an EU country because if Germany and France don't even defend other EU members from an outright invasion, all of Europe/the entire EU could easily fall apart...

**spmetla** · 08-15-2016, 18:06

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

**spmetla** · 08-15-2016, 18:35

Would Trump walk away from NATO
http://www.dw.com/en/would-a-trump-a...ato/a-19475314

Germany calls for calm amid growing crimea tensions
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-russia-...ine/a-19475852

**Husar** · 08-15-2016, 19:44

Originally Posted by spmetla

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

Or economically.
In which case you might also want to ask how Russia can afford that.
The country is almost bankrupt and depends on us buying its gas. On the other hand we depend on Russia delivering said gas, especially during winter. And that's just one area of trade and business cooperation. If Putin attacks Latvia or Estonia and doesn't even hide it, he attacks the EU and then we either do something or risk the EU completely falling apart. If there were to be an actual war between Russia and the EU, I'd guess all bets are off. Whether the British would just want to sit there and do nothing, EU membership or not, is a debatable question and Poland has quite a sizeable army, too. It's not just France and Germany, especially Poland would probably want to stop Russia sooner rather than later.

But that war is not just a military thing, because what happens after it? Imagine Putin wins and the armies of Germany, France, the UK and Poland plus a few others are all in shambles. Then what? He probably just lost all income from trade with the EU, his army probably took an enormous amount of losses and several EU countries such as Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, Portugal are still left with their armies. Does he go on and conquer more or just wait until the hurt kicks in because he just lost his biggest trade partner and made 500 million people very angry? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26436291

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

**Lizardo** · 08-15-2016, 22:42

Putin is very concerned. Seems like sam Ukrainian Spec ops who tried to ambush yankovich but failed great and dark times we are in my friends.

**spmetla** · 08-16-2016, 02:35

Originally Posted by Husar

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

I understand your point. Putin has made clear that he doesn't seem to mind his economy tanking so long as he can maintain his domestic support base. All hardships are pointed at the evil West. I know that Russia's military isn't so good that it can sustain military operations too far beyond its borders right now, especially with a country like Poland that takes its national defense seriously next door.

I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States but do think he'll create some sort of situation there that will draw a line in the sand and demonstrate whether NATO/EU are paper tigers or not.

Hate making the Hitler comparison but remember that he never expected France and the UK to actually go to war with him over Poland. He assumed they too were paper tigers and would instead debate about war endlessly. Saddam didn't think the US was going to invade him in 2003 without a clear resolution form the UN Security Council. Strongman politics is always gambling and trying to call bluffs. I think that Putin believes he can obtain his goal of dismantling or shrinking NATO/EU without having to actually resort to a large war but that type of gambling can very well lead to WW3. Obama's declaration that Nukes would only be used in retaliation to nukes and never be used as first means that the defeating the US in a conventional fight does not mean we'd go nuclear to makeup for that defeat or shortfall which has severally limited the effectiveness of it as a deterrent to conventional military threats.

Also, just to explain myself. I don't see WW3 around the corner but do worry that our fickle leadership right now could set the conditions that might lead to it.