Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.Originally Posted by Gilrandir
Re: UKRAINE thread
Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.
Re: UKRAINE thread
My thoughts exactly. And this effort was willy-nilly and poorly planned. Is it possible Russia abetted? Yes. But I deem it improbable.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: UKRAINE thread
Kudos to Sarmatian for a solid post.
Let's recall the process of ways, means, and ends. Montenegro accession is a nice symbolic boost for America, but a very limited one. Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position, and fewer resources and smaller population than the Baltic countries. Its military, though participating in the process (and having participated in various NATO programs in past years) is never going to amount to more than the gendarmerie of a small town. Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.
It is deeply unlikely they ever had the resources for a coup in Montenegro, or that they could develop them within a year. Slightly likelier would be that they sponsored a disruptive 'suicide coup', but its hard to see how it furthers Russian interests in any respect, only costing Putin some of his hard-earned aura of canniness and further steeling European countries to guard against Russian machinations.
It's a bad idea to try to directly compare this to the Turkish coup attempt in the summer, so I'll simply urge a consideration of how much Russia could have had to play in that affair going by this attitude. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it assumes so much in terms of unknown or unknowable secret resources, secret goals, secret actors, secret decisions, and secret communications that it verges on 'Aliens did it' for solid ground. That kind of speculation isn't worth the time unless you have something concrete to point out.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Re: UKRAINE thread
No need to do it "all around the world". It may focus on those who were within their orbit not long ago and then pivoted NATOwards.
Montenegro IS in the Balkans.
All those considerations are reasonable. Perhaps there is an explanation for a precipitate and unannounced visit of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to Serbia just when the scandal was evolving? And the deportation from Serbia two Russian citizens who were allegedly party to the purported coup?
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/spy-...elations-55921
Re: UKRAINE thread
It is, but it is unimportant in so many ways.
NATO bases already are situated much closer to Russia. If new are to be built, there are much better options, both in terms of cost and strategic position.
Military and economic power of Montenegro is insignificant.
The rocky shores of Montenegro aren't well suited to large ports. Its biggest port in the city of Bar is too shallow for bigger merchant ships, let alone big military ships, and there are at least a few better port options in the circle of 200-300km.
I could go on, but you get the gist. Those are the main reasons I don't believe Montenegro is worth it. Just like how they survived as independent state next to huge Ottoman Empire for more than a century - nobody really gives a ****! You may choose to believe that, or you may trust the chief prosecutor from Montenegro who insists there is no evidence of Moscow involvement. Or don't believe any of that, I really don't care.
Last edited by Sarmatian; 11-09-2016 at 16:26.
Re: UKRAINE thread
If it is so insignificant, why Russia is so disturbed about it joining NATO? And there is still no explanation to Patrushev's helter skelter visit to Serbia and two Russians ostensibly involved into the coup.
Re: UKRAINE thread
Personally, I believe he came for sex and booze, but officials maintain it was about enhancing cooperation in the sphere of security, especially concerning international terrorism, migrant crisis and situation in Kosovo. He met with minister of foreign affairs and minister of interior affairs, payed his respects to Russian soldiers who died during liberation of Belgrade, held a press conference... Everyone on both sides said the visit was planned for months in advance, and that there were no Russian citizens deported from Serbia.
The entire story was launched after a daily newspaper "Danas" wrote an article about it, citing unnamed source. That newspaper is known for making outlandish claims and is not considered reputable.
But, we all know that's bollox and he came for sex and booze.
Re: UKRAINE thread
Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.
The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....
Last edited by Brenus; 11-09-2016 at 22:15.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
hbts.?
Hobbits? They'd be in NATO in a hot minute if that's true.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: UKRAINE thread
So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?
Re: UKRAINE thread
I think the idea is more consolidation - who isn't NATO at this point? Austria, Switz, Scandinavia, Serbia/Kosovo - after that we get into the direct confrontation (with Russia) territory. Also the symbolic statement given how US-Russia relations have gone since 2009.So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Re: UKRAINE thread
Left out non-members (disregarding things like Malta):
*Ireland - also claims neutrality
*FYROM/Republic of Macedonia - blocked by Greece
*Bosnia - likely to join in coming years
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Re: UKRAINE thread
"So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?" No. But is Montenegro joining NATO is so dangerous that some need a Coup to stop it?
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
It might be an eye-opener, but, according to the Kremlin, NATO already IS in the direct confrontation territory aka Baltic states and Poland.
You gave reasons why Montenegro is absolutely useless for NATO. Don't they see it?
It is a pity you can't admire the uproar produced by Russian media discussing Montenergo joining NATO. The average accusation is betrayal Slavic brotherhood. Given the vitriolic character of the uproar one would think it is one of the major concerns of the Russian government.
Last edited by Gilrandir; 11-11-2016 at 13:57.
Re: UKRAINE thread
Is this how you wanna do it? Pass over arguments by supposedly asking "insightful questions" ad nauseum until you simply bore everyone into submission?
Re: UKRAINE thread
"Is this how you wanna do it? Pass over arguments by supposedly asking "insightful questions" ad nauseum until you simply bore everyone into submission?" I have to say for Gilrandir that is a very successful tactic. His best.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
I ask this question because I see inconsistencies (and no arguments) in what Brenus claims. On the one hand, he says that Montenegro isn't worth accepting into NATO. On the other hand, he says that NATO is not that stupid to fail to see the worthlessness of Montenegro as a NATO member. The question that arises is how can wise NATO leadership make such a stupid move. And I wanted Brenus to explain it. That simple.
As for the tactics you accuse me of, it is not aimed at any submission. But it is the same one your friend Brenus employs all the time. Yet it doesn't make you nauseous, does it? Quod licet jovi non licet bovi?
Re: UKRAINE thread
A new mural was spotted in Belgrade.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30b_1478525913
Will a Serb now voice his dissatisfaction that Bandera "is glorified" in Ukraine?
Re: UKRAINE thread
For the first post, that wasn't at all what he was saying, but I don't really care about your opinion. Whenever you become too obnoxious, the thread turns into you communicating with yourself by posting link after link. If that's ok with you, go right ahead.
As far as second post is concerned, I have no idea who the guy is and what he has to do with Bandera.
Re: UKRAINE thread
"And I wanted Brenus to explain it." Err, why should have to explain your mental process? Be responsible for your words, I am for mine.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
You saw what you saw and it doesn't mean it was the way you saw. Like it was with Putin's words on Crimea.
You forgot what you taught me, Master: attack the argument, not the person.
As for "communicating with yourself": while not idealizing myself and my style of posting I see other reasons for such development: people just lost interest in the topic. So if I see anything that I consider worth posting I do post it.
He is a war (and not only) criminal who seems to be now glorified in Serbia (the very thing you cautioned Ukrainians against giving Bandera as an example).
http://mashable.com/2015/04/09/russi.../#XxOx4HL.skqH
MY mental process? You make mutually exclusive claims (Montenegro isn't worth accepting into NATO and NATO is not that stupid to fail to see the worthlessness of Montenegro as a NATO member) and want ME to explain it?
Last edited by Gilrandir; 11-13-2016 at 07:57.
Re: UKRAINE thread
"Montenegro isn't worth accepting into NATO and NATO is not that stupid to fail to see the worthlessness of Montenegro as a NATO member" These are your words, not mine. Quote?
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
I wouldn't call them mutually exclusive if you allow for the existence of some degree of altruism, pride and perhaps also strategic location and public image.
It can be worthless in terms of military contribution, or that is how I understood it, but it still helps the NATO portrayal of a safety umbrella for those who feel threatened and is therefore a worthy member.
By the way, too lazy to check the originals now, but the two positions you "quoted" there basically say the same thing, that NATO shouldn't/wouldn't accept Montenegro.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Re: UKRAINE thread
Be my guest:
Ergo: Montenegro is worthless for NATO.
Ergo: NATO is not that stupid to see Montenegro is worthless for it.
Yet we know NATO IS COOPTING Montenegro. How come?
This is how I see it. Not so Brenus.
Re: UKRAINE thread
"Ergo: Montenegro is worthless for NATO." No. Your words, not my quote. Your opinion is a country populated of 600,000 inhabitants (hbts) is worthless, not mine.
"How come?"
"I wouldn't call them mutually exclusive if you allow for the existence of some degree of altruism, pride and perhaps also strategic location and public image." Altruism? We speak of the same NATO? Strategic location? Did you had a look on a map, recently? Public image, perhaps.
Montenegro feel threatened by whom?
And can I remind you that two NATO member-states of NATO and more or less at war? So much of the "safety umbrella" .
Last edited by Brenus; 11-13-2016 at 22:48.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
# 1238 - the whole post:
My words, you say?
Re: UKRAINE thread
This thread doth wander...
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: UKRAINE thread
"My words, you say?" Yes. Where do you read unworthy (worthless)? You are a linguist, you know the importance of words. There are no reason for NATO to built bases in Montenegro, it is not the same of Montenegro is unworthy as you said, is it?
You put a disdain that I didn't. YOUR words, not mine. And you can try to distort the wording as much you want, YOU put an adjective in it.
So, except to upset Russia, what is the reason to have Montenegro in NATO? Naval bases? No. Land bases? No. Airbases? No. For each NATO as plenty of all all around the Balkans. This not a the disdain you showed to Montenegro, it is a reality check.
You should try it.
Last edited by Brenus; 11-14-2016 at 20:14.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
Re: UKRAINE thread
How about this for an argument in favor of Montenegro.
Other than being another country with a language desperately short of vowels to break up those strings of consonants, what is not to like?
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Re: UKRAINE thread
Oh, I am in favour of Montenegro and Serbia.
Contrary to Gilrandir probably, I went often in this country kad bilo je Jugoslavija.
And I like their music,
Zabrejano Pusanje (Bosnia) https://youtu.be/zU73yqxM7iU
https://youtu.be/0IofpvkGJPM
Merlin (Bosnia), https://youtu.be/2Xda4BUoZ3I
Riblja Corba, https://youtu.be/VE80eImDdAQ
Balasevic and others.
And their women are beautiful. https://youtu.be/vwMyF7ic_Ys
https://youtu.be/sOId3rZrBMk
Goran Bregović, Emir Kusturica:
https://youtu.be/EZf00ad3G6o
and of course:
https://youtu.be/UqOL7LOR6ko
A black sense of humour: When they shot down the Invisible bomber, they printed a post card saying: Sorry, we didn't see it.
And Belgrade by Night with the flames of the bombing during the night. Fantastic people...
Last edited by Brenus; 11-14-2016 at 23:56.
Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. Voltaire.
"I've been in few famous last stands, lad, and they're butcher shops. That's what Blouse's leading you into, mark my words. What'll you lot do then? We've had a few scuffles, but that's not war. Think you'll be man enough to stand, when the metal meets the meat?"
"You did, sarge", said Polly." You said you were in few last stands."
"Yeah, lad. But I was holding the metal"
Sergeant Major Jackrum 10th Light Foot Infantery Regiment "Inns-and-Out"
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