Ukraine Thread

[Crandar]

The opposition has accused Poroshenko of using the martial law to postpone the elections. Martial law wasn't even declared when Crimea was occupied, so it definitely seems suspicious now. What are your thoughts on the upcoming presidential elections?

[Gilrandir]

The opposition has accused Poroshenko of using the martial law to postpone the elections.

First of all, martial law was introduced in 11 out of 24 oblasts (regions) of Ukraine, not in the whole country.
Second of all, it is to last a month till December 26 (reduced from the initial 2 months) and elections are scheduled for the 31 of March, 2019.
Third of all, the elections were officially declared and the corresponding law was passed (as was demanded by the opposition), so there is a slim chance the elections could be postponed. It may happen if Russia does something aggressive and the martial law is prolonged. I don't believe it's gonna happen. For once, it can't be done automatically. It is to be put through the parliament each time.

Martial law wasn't even declared when Crimea was occupied, so it definitely seems suspicious now.

The procedure of declaring martial law includes three steps:
1. The Council of National Security and Defense initiates introduction of martial law.
2. The president issues a decree to that effect.
3. The parliament votes it in turning into a law.

When Crimea was occupied Ukraine didn't have a president, Security council was not functioning (as it is headed by the president), the majority in the parliament belonged to the runaway Yanukovych. In view of that it couldn't have been introduced. Besides the procedural obstacles, back then Ukraine didn't have any effective troops to respond to the introduction of martial law and the top commanders of the army were also Yanukovych's stooges (and former Russian citizens). So in 2014 declaring martial law would be just empty words. Most importantly, back then Russia denied any involvement in Crimea events (and later in Donbas events, and still later in MH17 downing). It is very different from what happened in the Kerch strait where Russian ships openly attacked Ukrainian ones in neutral waters when they were in fact heading back to Odesa from where they came and four missiles were shot at them from planes (well, two from a plane and two from a helicopter). Now Russia can't deny it was done by its regular troops.

Plus Poroshenko produced reports of Russia building up its forces in the sea of Azov, having sent there ships from the Caspian Sea and the north by internal waterways. Plus constant reports (not by Poroshenko) of ships heading to or from Ukrainian Azov sea ports (and not just Ukrainian ships, but from all over the world, including the EU) being detained from 2 to 7 days by the Russian navy which entails huge fines and consequently financial losses of the businesses involved. It started in April this year when the Kerch bridge began functioning and has been aggravating ever since despite the fact that according to the 2003 treaty between Russia and Ukraine Azov was to be internal sea of both countries so all ships bearing their flags were to be let pass freely.

Introduction of martial law may seem an overreaction if we consider only the last Kerch strait piracy case, but in view of all the happenings that began in April the latter accident appears to be the last straw and martial law is (partially) meant to make the world pay attention to the situation around Azov. At least that's how I see it.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming presidential elections?

That's a long talk. In short, people are dissatisfied with the current situation in the country, very often putting all burden of blame on Poroshenko. I'm not his fan and I didn't vote for him in 2014, but I can't but note the injustice of such approach. I realize his shortcomings, but many people fail to see that when a country is at war, the life is unlikely to improve rapidly if at all. And that is what populists (like Lyashko and Tymoshenko) promise in case they are elected and many people seem to believe them. Tymoshenko tops poll results. People don't realize that the keys to peace in Donbas are kept in the Kremlin and Putin is unlikely to revise his stance on the issue preferring to wait for a change of the government in Ukraine after the March presidential elections hoping to get a more amenable president or the parliamentary elections which are to be held in fall next year.

Anyway, the election campaign hasn't officially begun and four months which are left till the elections seem to be quite a long time so a lot might change.

[Gilrandir]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46575548

[Gilrandir]

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-am...e/4776669.html

[Gilrandir]

An update on presidential elections:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440

[Montmorency]

Don't know anything about Zelezny, but perhaps more notable is that Trump confirms "Finders Keepers" doctrine for clay:

President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights upends a half century of U.S. policy. The strategically important plateau has been widely considered under international law to be occupied territory since its 1967 seizure from Syria. In his proclamation, Trump cited security needs as paramount, though in practice Israeli control has not been challenged for decades. Experts warn the move could weaken international prohibitions on acquiring territory by force.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

On the one hand, this is a problem. On the other hand, the Russian "frozen conflict" doctrine relies on the fiction that territory cannot be annexed by force (when it obviously can).

One thing which Ukraine could theoretically do is recognise the de facto independence of the rebel areas and once this is done they would be free to join NATO.

Ukraine would thereby yield territory in exchange for stability and a permanent check on Russian expansion.

Hardly an ideal situation, but possibly a better long-term option than the status quo.