Ukraine Thread

[Husar]

It's January 14th here.

[Strike For The South]

You are just fufilling you're German duty to be attracted to an autocart. Putin gets things done therefore he is good.

I pity you

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It's January 14th here.

Not at the time he posted, even in Dresden it was still the 13th.

So put that in your asynchronous pipe and smoke it.

[Husar]

You are just fufilling you're German duty to be attracted to an autocart. Putin gets things done therefore he is good.

I pity you

Yes, I am German duty and I love autocarts, bit auto lovers everywhere here.
But can you show me where I said Putin is good?

Not at the time he posted, even in Dresden it was still the 13th.

So put that in your asynchronous pipe and smoke it.

You may not believe it, but I was aware of that, there is a little timestamp above every post after all.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...You may not believe it, but I was aware of that, there is a little timestamp above every post after all.

Oh heavens, Husar, did I need to put [SARCASM] [/SARCASM] brackets on it? It was a bit of a sophomoric joke response. Cross Loper termed it "sub-sophomoric" which I think a bit harsh, but may also be accurate.

Never have doubted your intelligence even though you and I do not always agree on things. I assure you I was trying for 'silly' not 'insulting.'

[Husar]

Oh heavens, Husar, did I need to put [SARCASM] [/SARCASM] brackets on it? It was a bit of a sophomoric joke response. Cross Loper termed it "sub-sophomoric" which I think a bit harsh, but may also be accurate.

Never have doubted your intelligence even though you and I do not always agree on things. I assure you I was trying for 'silly' not 'insulting.'

I have to fail as well sometimes, it reminds me that I'm still human.

Can't even remember what I wanted to write instead of "bit" in response to Strike either. I violated my own rule of not posting shortly after I wake up and deserve to get punished for it.

[GenosseGeneral]

An interesting study into the role of domestic and national identities in Russia's foreign policy towards its "near abroad", despite certain shortcomings:

Identity, legitimacy, and the use of military force:
Russia’s Great Power identities and military intervention
in Abkhazia
TED HOPF
Review of International Studies / Volume 31 / Supplement S1 / December 2005, pp 225 - 243


If you are really interested and do not have access to the publication via institutions, pm me.

[Gilrandir]

Last two weeks have witnessed the intensification of fighting in ATO. Separatists started the offensive, especially harsh fighting is going on in Donetsk airport. And one more alarming news:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/new...air-force.html
What could such stepping up of the war mean?

Curious ruminations on correlation between oil prices and Russia's foregn policy.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...ssian-politics

[Gilrandir]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ea2c7...#axzz3PcnnbY3T

[Gilrandir]

The current stage of the conflict:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-sa...8.html#StcbPRd

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I just don't see Ukraine holding the disputed territory. I am wondering how much more they lose before Putin, er, the rebels reach their absorption limit.

[Viking]

That absorption limit is the same as for the Russian armed forces - which is probably somewhere halfway through Poland.

[GenosseGeneral]

According to Ukrainian MoD the separatists have begun a fully fledged attack on all fronts today, which began with a massive bombardment of Mariupol. There had been certain indicators for this the week before, most notably the Ukrainian army loosing Donetsk ariport meanwhile separatist leader Sakharchenko declared that "the DNR will free the whole Donetsk Oblast'".

Give peace a chance? Not today.

Pictures taken in Mariupol this morning. The last number I read were 27 dead and about a hundred wounded, almost exlusively civilians.
WARNING: Content might be graphic.
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/347...-fotoreportazh

[Gilrandir]

According to Ukrainian MoD the separatists have begun a fully fledged attack on all fronts today, which began with a massive bombardment of Mariupol. There had been certain indicators for this the week before, most notably the Ukrainian army loosing Donetsk ariport meanwhile separatist leader Sakharchenko declared that "the DNR will free the whole Donetsk Oblast'".

Moreover, Zakharchenko announced that their next target is Mariupol and the same time renounced responsibility for the shelling.
Some experts say that the all-out offensive is crawling on on all fronts rather than a series of heavy strokes. So the real purpose of it is not military so much, but provoking panic and protests within Ukraine to change the current government and (as the best outcome for Russia) a new Maidan which will ultimately break the country. Putin's need for speed is explained by the harm that comes from sanctions and consequently his desire to patch up the conflict with Ukraine's (if it still exists) new more lenient government which is to replace the current one before March to get the sanctions cancelled.

[Viking]

Dashcam footage purportedly showing grad attack on Mariupol. Van in front almost takes direct hit.

[Gilrandir]

Dashcam footage purportedly showing grad attack on Mariupol. Van in front almost takes direct hit.

The night after the shelling was astonishingly quiet along the whole frontline. It seems that the terrorists are digesting what they have done and need some adjustment of their plans.

SBU made public an intercepted coversation in which a terrorist (not surprisingly with the nickname "Terrorist") orders another one (nicknamed "Ash") to shell the Eastern district of Mariupol. Ash at first objects that there are nine-storeyed buildings over there, but Terrorist assures him that they are 1.5 km from the checkpoint which is to become the target.
After the shelling Terrorist upbraides Ash for doing it on his own, without consulting the direction layer. Yet he tells him not to worry much and shell Talakivka next. Ash himself doesn't sound abashed and says something like "serve them right as it will make them flee sooner."

http://news.liga.net/video/incident/...mariupolya.htm

[Gilrandir]

A talk show with Girkin aka Strelkov, at which he admits being in the Crimea in February - March 2014 and says that the deputies of the Crimean parliament were forced to come to the session amd forced to vote the way they did. https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...N0&app=desktop

[Gilrandir]

Finally!!! Ukraine is a NATO member or else there are NATO troops in Ukraine (according to Putin):
http://www.cbs46.com/story/27944844/...-putin-charges

[Gilrandir]

Perhaps this one is more for German-speaking audience:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehl-qlqZEgU
Of course, I don't know how serious/unbiased is this "heute show", yet it seems that Russian flagrant propaganda has been finally known for what it is.

[Ice]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sieg...pol-1422490152

President Obama took a foreign-policy bow during his State of the Union speech last week, boasting that “we’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small—by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.” Whereupon Russian-backed forces promptly expanded an offensive in Ukraine that has already claimed more than 5,000 lives.

On Saturday the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, strategically located on the Sea of Azov, came under indiscriminate rocket fire from positions controlled by the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, the Moscow-sponsored militia in eastern Ukraine. Some 30 people were killed in the attacks; another hundred or so were wounded. Aleksandr Zakharchenko, since November the Donetsk Republic’s “Prime Minister,” had earlier promised an offensive against Mariupol, though both his militia and Moscow were quick to deny responsibility for the massacre.

None of this is surprising, though most military analysts expected the rebels to wait until spring before resuming their onslaught. It also underscores the willful disbelief of Westerners, starting with President Obama, who imagined that the combination of light sanctions on Russia and a steep drop in energy prices would force Vladimir Putin to call an end to his Ukrainian adventure.

The opposite has happened. Russia put its name to a cease-fire signed in Minsk last September. Yet by November Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s Supreme Commander, was reporting the movement of “Russian troops, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops” into Ukraine. More recent sightings of “little green men” in insignia-less uniforms suggest the presence of Russian special forces fighting alongside the rebels.

The Kremlin’s likely aim for this latest offensive is to take Mariupol, which would consolidate rebel control over the Donetsk region and provide a better sea link between Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian mainland. European leaders have lately been warning that Moscow will face a new round of sanctions should the rebel offensive continue. But given the noises French President François Hollande and others have been making about easing up on sanctions, Mr. Putin probably figures he can take Mariupol first and then bargain the West down.

It also doesn’t hurt Mr. Putin that the Ukrainian war has further boosted his popularity—88% approval, according to one opinion poll late last year—despite the economic turmoil. Russian nationalism runs deep, and dictators tend to benefit politically from splendid little wars, at least those they win.

Which is what makes it all the more imperative for the West to ensure that Russia does not win. The Ukrainian military has ringed Mariupol with a three-tiered defense, but a defeat there would put the defense of the rest of Ukraine into serious question. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has repeatedly asked the U.S. to assist his country with arms, but so far the Obama Administration has done nothing more than to offer limited nonlethal aid. Even Hillary Clinton, in postdove campaign mode, wants the U.S. to do more.

We’re all for sanctioning the Kremlin, especially in ways that directly affect Mr. Putin and his inner circle. But if the West wants to stop the Kremlin’s military offensive, military means are also required. Giving Ukraine the arms to defend its territory is the only chance of stopping Mr. Putin’s siege.

[Gilrandir]

Russian parliament is planning to condemn West Germany for annexing East Germany in 1989.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-east-germany/
Apart from being the raving of an sick imagination, how seriuos are the charges? I mean was there any legal procedure of reunification obsereved (like voting by GDR's parliament or something) or was it assumed by default that all East Germans want to lose their country?

[Gilrandir]

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Russi...s-466418.shtml

[Hax]

Perhaps this one is more for German-speaking audience:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehl-qlqZEgU
Of course, I don't know how serious/unbiased is this "heute show", yet it seems that Russian flagrant propaganda has been finally known for what it is.

Looks like a German Daily Show tbh.

[Husar]

Russian parliament is planning to condemn West Germany for annexing East Germany in 1989.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-east-germany/
Apart from being the raving of an sick imagination, how seriuos are the charges? I mean was there any legal procedure of reunification obsereved (like voting by GDR's parliament or something) or was it assumed by default that all East Germans want to lose their country?

I think it was assumed that everybody wants freedom, democracy and capitalism. Russia got a boatload of money for letting us have it and then we payed more to clean up the mess they left behind. The place is barely civilized by now and one could make a good case that they never deserved democracy.

[Gilrandir]

I think it was assumed that everybody wants freedom, democracy and capitalism. Russia got a boatload of money for letting us have it and then we payed more to clean up the mess they left behind.

I spoke of LEGAL procedure of re-unification. Was there any?

The place is barely civilized by now

You are jumping to a conclusion too fast, you haven't seen Ukrainian sticks.

[Husar]

I spoke of LEGAL procedure of re-unification. Was there any?

I have no idea, I was five at the time and we didn't learn about it at school. What kind of legal procedure could there be about it? Isn't it inherently a political thing? The previous government of the DDR left and didn't resist, what would lawyers argue about? Whether such a unification was fine according to the DDR's constitution?

You are jumping to a conclusion too fast, you haven't seen Ukrainian sticks.

It was an absolute, not a relative statement and it still stands.

[Husar]

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/...d_4438784.html

11.47 Uhr: Im Kampf gegen prorussische Separatisten in der Ostukraine hat die Regierung in Kiew "Abschussprämien" für ihre Soldaten eingeführt. Einem am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Beschluss zufolge zahlt der Staat für ein vernichtetes Fahrzeug der Aufständischen umgerechnet 600 Euro.
Zerstörte Panzer werden mit 2400 Euro belohnt, und für ein abgeschossenes Kampfflugzeug soll es 6000 Euro geben. Zusätzlich will die Regierung den Soldaten für jeden Tag im Kampfeinsatz 50 Euro zahlen. Armeeangehörige klagen jedoch oft darüber, dass der finanziell klamme Staat ihnen den Sold schulde.

11:47 Clock: In fight against prorussian separatists in the eastukraine has the government in Kiew "killrewards" for its soldiers introduced. An on tuesday released decision following pays the state for a destroyed vehicle of the rebels recalculated 600 Euro.
Destroyed tanks are with 2400 Euro rewarded, and for a downshot fighterairplane should it 6000 Euro give. Additionally wants the government the soldiers for every day in fightingmission 50 Euro pay. Armybelongers complain however often about, that the financially tight state them the pay owes.

You should get the point, the Ukrainian government rewards soldiers for destroyed enemy vehicles now and wants to pay them 50 Euros for every day in the war zone. Soldiers however complain that the government still owes them their basic wages in the first place.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I have no idea, I was five at the time and we didn't learn about it at school. What kind of legal procedure could there be about it? Isn't it inherently a political thing? The previous government of the DDR left and didn't resist, what would lawyers argue about? Whether such a unification was fine according to the DDR's constitution?



It was an absolute, not a relative statement and it still stands.

That's actually not an unreasonable question - the DDR would have had to sign something that declared it effectively ceased to exist, as it's constituent states simply became part of the German federation, or whatever you guys call yourselves today.

If the DDR didn't sign itself out of existence legally then you would technically be talking about an annexation with less of a rubber stamp than Crimea.

Also - it is pretty weird, bordering on disturbing, that this isn't taught in German schools given that it's the most important event in German history since the end of World War II.

[Husar]

Why? It's all on Wikipedia anyway. In history classes we covered the french revolution at least threee times since it was obviously the most historically significant event of all times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_...ication_Treaty

The Volkskammer, the Parliament of East Germany, passed a resolution on 23 August 1990 seeking the accession (Beitritt) of the German Democratic Republic to the Federal Republic of Germany as allowed by article 23 of the West German Basic Law, effective 3 October 1990.[7][8] In the wake of that resolution, the "German reunification treaty",[9][10][11] commonly known in German as "Einigungsvertrag" (Unification Treaty) or "Wiedervereinigungsvertrag" (Reunification Treaty), that had been negotiated between the two German states since 2 July 1990, was signed on 31 August 1990. This Treaty, officially titled Vertrag zwischen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik über die Herstellung der Einheit Deutschlands (Treaty between the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic on the Establishment of German Unity), was approved by large majorities in the legislative chambers of both countries on 20 September 1990[12] (442–47 in the West German Bundestag and 299–80 in the East German Volkskammer). The amendments to the Federal Republic's Basic Law that were foreseen in the Unification Treaty or necessary for its implementation were adopted by the Federal Statute of 23 September 1990. Under article 45 of the Treaty,[13] it entered into force in international Law on 29 September 1990, upon the exchange of notices regarding the completion of the respective internal constitutional requirements for the adoption of the treaty in both East Germany and West Germany.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Lots of negotiation and paperwork and publicly recorded votes on both sides favoring approval.

The Russian claim that this was an annexation only flies if the Russians are asserting that East Germany was never a real state of its own in the first place and that their legislature, therefore, had no authority to enact such a treaty. While arguably correct on one level there are too many public assertions regarding the "independence" of Warsaw Pact nations by the Soviets to make this argument readily acceptable.

Writ large, the Russian claim is based on Hungary and Czechoslovakia having been Soviet responses to "internal" dissent -- they had a right to squash them because they were REALLY just provinces -- and that the "province" of East Germany really still belongs to Russia as the inheritor of the Soviet Union.

In short, this is just political theater.