Ukraine Thread

[spmetla]

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

I understand your point. Putin has made clear that he doesn't seem to mind his economy tanking so long as he can maintain his domestic support base. All hardships are pointed at the evil West. I know that Russia's military isn't so good that it can sustain military operations too far beyond its borders right now, especially with a country like Poland that takes its national defense seriously next door.

I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States but do think he'll create some sort of situation there that will draw a line in the sand and demonstrate whether NATO/EU are paper tigers or not.

Hate making the Hitler comparison but remember that he never expected France and the UK to actually go to war with him over Poland. He assumed they too were paper tigers and would instead debate about war endlessly. Saddam didn't think the US was going to invade him in 2003 without a clear resolution form the UN Security Council. Strongman politics is always gambling and trying to call bluffs. I think that Putin believes he can obtain his goal of dismantling or shrinking NATO/EU without having to actually resort to a large war but that type of gambling can very well lead to WW3. Obama's declaration that Nukes would only be used in retaliation to nukes and never be used as first means that the defeating the US in a conventional fight does not mean we'd go nuclear to makeup for that defeat or shortfall which has severally limited the effectiveness of it as a deterrent to conventional military threats.

Also, just to explain myself. I don't see WW3 around the corner but do worry that our fickle leadership right now could set the conditions that might lead to it.