Ukraine Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

[Kagemusha]

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

[Kadagar_AV]

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

In little more than a decade he has turned a joke of a Union into a nation that is a sincere BIG dog on the international scene, and he has over and over out-played the "one supreme super power" we are said to have.

Pax Americana my ***.

The US had its quick minutes of fame between 1995 and 2015... 20 years is not bad for an empire, but it's not really that cool either.

Unfortunately, the only thing contributed to the world was never ending wars, a backstep when it comes to secularity as a state idea and a failed economic system.

[Sarmatian]

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

Not really sure about that, but if it were a video game, there would have been massive cries to nerf Putin.




It would be nice if we don't let the thread deteriorate like the last one did. It seems all out war is pretty much inevitable now. Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

European statements tend to go from "moar sanctions" to "let's cut back a little", without clear idea what to do.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Putin will always win the chess game as long as Europe continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Currently, 30% of natural gas Europe uses comes from Russia. I think it is possible to reduce that 30% down if Europe was willing. But energy prices are high in Europe already, so it all depends on whether it is worth it to the EU to sacrifice a few eastern countries in order to keep the energy market status quo.

[Gilrandir]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

[HoreTore]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe.

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

[Montmorency]

the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

[Gilrandir]

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Unless those states openly proclaim their desire to take their way elswhere except Russia they are safe. But the moment they do Russia will play its traditional card of protecting Russian-speaking communities (and in Khazakhstan, for instance it is quite sizeable). But even without that Zhirinovsky claims that northern Khazakhstan (if not the whole of it) is historically Russian territory. Putin himself, in one his portentous historical speeches, commended Nazarbayev on creating a state where it has never existed.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/69771
Whence there is one step to a claim that Russia has a right to own what Russian empire has owned for quite a time.

[Sarmatian]

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

It works both ways. It would take a lot of time and a lot of effort for Europe to switch suppliers. Only significant producer of natural gas that is close enough is Iran. Even if Europe manages to find another supplier that can produce as much natural gas as Europe needs, it still needs infrastructure to get that gas transported to Europe, which means new pipelines. LNG also needs infrastructure and is much more expensive than pipeline natural gas. Russia will most certainly manage to finish Chinese pipeline before, and anyway, we're talking about 5-10 years in the future.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation. They can't be wooed back now. Whether one supports Kiev or rebels, it would seem that the only way Kiev comes out on top is if it manages to defeat the rebels by military means, which I believe is impossible.

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

I'd say that Russia's on the rise, rather than decline, so waiting it out will fail. Even if you're right, that's several decades in the future. Nobody likes the idea of a frozen conflict for the next 25+ years.

[Montmorency]

I'd say that Russia's on the rise

On what basis?

[Sarmatian]

On what basis?

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

[HoreTore]

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

[Sarmatian]

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

I don't really disagree with much of this, but I don't see how it speaks to my post.

[Montmorency]

Not everyone can increase in power relative to others. That's impossible.

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/co...012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-...r-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvpor...AL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

[Sarmatian]

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/co...012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-...r-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvpor...AL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

Growth projections have been slashed across the board, but all of your links except the first predict a good growth rate for Russia and always better than Eurozone.

The first is rather weird, but they predicted 0.25% growth for the last quarter while in reality it was 0.8%.

The fourth mentions "bleak outlooks" but the entire article consists of weasel words, without mentioning a single figure anywhere.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy. Regardless how successful that reform is, economic growth in Asia and Africa will keep the price of resources and energy high for the foreseeable future, which means Russian economy is safe for the next several decades. If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

[Montmorency]

If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

Just to note that even if Russia turns away from Europe economically, it will still depend quite a bit on its performance via the world economy. Diaschisis is a useful concept.

Actually, that's one of the interesting things. Tangential to us right now, but the larger links above - as well as other similar sources - consistently predict that GDP per capita, and living standards more generally, will lag behind the Western peak by anywhere from 1/3-1/2 for countries like Russia and China, and 3/4 for countries like India and Brazil.

However, I do note that this is probably an overly-linear view of economic growth in our time, and that technological developments could upset these analyses both in and outside the West.

Look at microbanking in the developing world - after all, this is financial access based on widespread cell-phone usage that we're talking about!

TLDR, I don't like Russia's prospects on the (inter)national scale, but don't really trust any specific analysis past 2030. The links above were simply to demonstrate that there are indeed many pessimistic perspectives on Russian development.

[Gilrandir]

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation.
They can't be wooed back now.

Do you suggest Ukraine should pay pensions and salaries to the Crimea as well to woo it back? Own up to it: the moment the conflict grew into a military confrontation with Russia actively participating, it is not the separatists who decide on options. Russia is the one to stop it at any moment it wishes by withdrawing whatever military support it is giving and sealing the border against any penetrations both ways. Since Russia is not interested in it now and goads the separatists on and on I see no solution to the conflict except keeping the Lugandonians at bay beyond the existing frontlines.

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):

I know some people here on the forum who will again start looking for metaphors in Putin's words to deny the fact that he was lying back in spring when he said that Russian soldiers were not instrumental in occupying Crimea.
Moreover, in this interview Putin said that if some dissidents decide to fight they will find a way of getting weapons. He sounds like the separatists find weapons on their own without him being aware where they get them.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy.

This obstacle is minor in comparison to corruption. Among the most recent cases, Sochi olympics were exemplary notorious for embezzlements and other financial abuses. 2018 World Cup is the one that is likely to surpass Sochi.

[Gilrandir]

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.