Ukraine Thread

[Sarmatian]

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

It works both ways. It would take a lot of time and a lot of effort for Europe to switch suppliers. Only significant producer of natural gas that is close enough is Iran. Even if Europe manages to find another supplier that can produce as much natural gas as Europe needs, it still needs infrastructure to get that gas transported to Europe, which means new pipelines. LNG also needs infrastructure and is much more expensive than pipeline natural gas. Russia will most certainly manage to finish Chinese pipeline before, and anyway, we're talking about 5-10 years in the future.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation. They can't be wooed back now. Whether one supports Kiev or rebels, it would seem that the only way Kiev comes out on top is if it manages to defeat the rebels by military means, which I believe is impossible.

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

I'd say that Russia's on the rise, rather than decline, so waiting it out will fail. Even if you're right, that's several decades in the future. Nobody likes the idea of a frozen conflict for the next 25+ years.

[Montmorency]

I'd say that Russia's on the rise

On what basis?

[Sarmatian]

On what basis?

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

[Montmorency]

<5% per annum is extremely high?

[Greyblades]

In a world where austerity is given a time of day, it is.

[Ironside]

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

[Rhyfelwyr]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

[HoreTore]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

[Rhyfelwyr]

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

There seems to be talk about a particular demographic crisis in Russia.

Considering that this population decline will coincide with population growth of many of the more troublesome minorities (various peoples of the Caucasus etc), Russia would appear to be facing problems that you can't really compare with Western Europe.

[Sarmatian]

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

It's 8-9th today (2013 data). 2001, 2002... 2013, 2014 data. All projections show the same thing. Russia is under sanctions at the moment and suffering from significantly lower oil prices, but it shot over the 0.2% last quarter growth the West was predicting, having 0.8% instead. Eurozone had 0.7% for comparison. Sanctions coming back to bite EU.

The overall economic balance of power is shifting and the West is declining in relative power. BRIC and MINT will be the dominating force economically. Western sanctions are insignificant in the long term.

Russia will also grow in relative power. While now Russia has 1/3 of combined GDP of Germany and France, in 2050 it will have between 30% and 40% of the entire EU.

The trend can not be ignored. Waiting for Russian power to wane is a strategy doomed to fail.

[Montmorency]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

[Sarmatian]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

And your claim is more accurate than all the world's experts because.... ?

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

It's nominal. It's hard predicting PPP in 2050.

[HoreTore]

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

[Sarmatian]

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish

[HoreTore]

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish

It's not like I'll be able to influence anything; might as well enjoy the ride....

While Putin is being a fascist and his eastern Ukrainian allies are up to their old tricks rigging sham elections, I might as well be happy that this will benefit myself.