Ukraine Thread

[Ironside]

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

[Rhyfelwyr]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

[HoreTore]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

[Rhyfelwyr]

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

There seems to be talk about a particular demographic crisis in Russia.

Considering that this population decline will coincide with population growth of many of the more troublesome minorities (various peoples of the Caucasus etc), Russia would appear to be facing problems that you can't really compare with Western Europe.

[HoreTore]

There seems to be talk about a particular demographic crisis in Russia.

I'm not disagreeing on a demographic crisis in Russia; just that the two features you mentioned are ones found in every western European country.

[Montmorency]

One one hand, Putin could always grant the migrant workers in Russia - millions of them - full citizenship.

On the other hand, the EUSSR could always import more blacks and Muslims.

[Sarmatian]

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

It's 8-9th today (2013 data). 2001, 2002... 2013, 2014 data. All projections show the same thing. Russia is under sanctions at the moment and suffering from significantly lower oil prices, but it shot over the 0.2% last quarter growth the West was predicting, having 0.8% instead. Eurozone had 0.7% for comparison. Sanctions coming back to bite EU.

The overall economic balance of power is shifting and the West is declining in relative power. BRIC and MINT will be the dominating force economically. Western sanctions are insignificant in the long term.

Russia will also grow in relative power. While now Russia has 1/3 of combined GDP of Germany and France, in 2050 it will have between 30% and 40% of the entire EU.

The trend can not be ignored. Waiting for Russian power to wane is a strategy doomed to fail.

[Montmorency]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

[Sarmatian]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

And your claim is more accurate than all the world's experts because.... ?

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

It's nominal. It's hard predicting PPP in 2050.

[Montmorency]

all the world's experts

Where?

[Sarmatian]

Where?

Everywhere. Google it. Give or take, Russia's at the top and it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

[Montmorency]

Everywhere. Google it.

All the experts I'm reading of predict stagnation at best.

it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

Well, yeah? So has everyone else's in the world. That's not an argument for anything in particular.

Russia's at the top

Now you're just overplaying your hand.